MADISON, Wis. — For Wisconsin Badger fans, optimism is warranted right now.

The Badgers will enter this final stretch 19-5 with a real chance at winning the Big Ten regular season championship.

But it’s not just the record. Coach Greg Gard’s commitment and execution of modernizing the offense has had a remarkable effect on the team’s production.

They currently sit at fifth in the Big Ten and 28th in the country in scoring (81.0 points per game), consistently putting up numbers that are unprecedented in Wisconsin’s history.

Gard will enter the toughest stretch of the season leading one of the best teams of his career. Fans should be happy. I, however, can’t help but feel a pit in my stomach.

For those who haven’t noticed, a worrying trend has emerged for Gard’s recent teams. At some point in the second half of the regular season, the wheels fall off and the Badgers become a completely different group.

They began last year with a 16-4 record, then went 3-8 to finish the regular season, followed by a first-round exit in the NCAA Tournament at the hands of James Madison. Blackwell and McGee both struggled with injuries, while A.J. Storr became distracted, reportedly.

The year before, the Badgers got off to an 11-2 start. Tyler Wahl then suffered an injury, and the Badgers went 5-11 the rest of the way, failing to even make the tournament.

The 2021-22 team, led by Johnny Davis, was shaping up to be the best of Gard’s career. They stood at the top of the Big Ten heading into March with a whopping 24-5 record.

Then, in the penultimate game of the season, Davis sprained his ankle. He never looked the same and Wisconsin proceeded to lose in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

One could look at this series of disappointments and simply point to the injuries as an excuse, which is somewhat fair. It would’ve been hard for even elite coaches to win in Gard’s position.

But this is sports. Disasters happen. Injuries happen. Certain teams are luckier than others, but every team is affected by health in one way or another during a five-month season.

Wisconsin’s issue is greater than ankles and wrists. The Badgers have shown a tendency of growing too reliant on their star players. Or, in other words, they haven’t been talented enough.

Davis and Storr stand as some of the best scorers in recent memory for Wisconsin. Gard was right to trust them with a lionshare of the offensive responsibility. But when Davis got injured and Storr became erratic, there weren’t enough other options to turn to.

Regardless of how important those players were to their respective teams, a program like Wisconsin should build teams that aren’t completely reliant on one or two players.

Advancing past the second round shouldn’t feel impossible. In March, it’ll be the eight-year anniversary of Gard’s last Sweet 16.

This year’s team does show noticeable improvement in one category. For arguably the first time in Gard’s tenure, there are two legitimate top-dog scorers instead of just one.

John Blackwell and John Tonje have already cemented themselves as some of the best players in recent memory for Wisconsin. I’m not worried about their ability to contribute come postseason time.

But have they fixed their reliance issue? If either of them suffered an injury — which seems fair to speculate on given Wisconsin’s recent history — will the team be able to survive?

If an opposing coach creates a great game plan to stop one of them, and the other is having a rough shooting night, who will the offense turn to?

After Tonje and Blackwell, there’s a logjam for third place in the offensive pecking order.

The two obvious candidates for that position, veterans Steven Crowl and Max Klesmit, have struggled to stay consistent this season.

The offensive boom has done wonders for the majority of returning players, namely Blackwell, Nolan Winter, Kamari McGee and even Carter Gilmore.

Yet, it’s the two elder statesmen of the rotation who struggle to keep up.

It felt, heading into the season, as if Crowl was primed for a career year. Wahl graduated, finally leaving Crowl as the most important big man on the team.

Yet the more important offseason development had to do with the offense as a whole. It changed. Operating through the post went from being the life blood of Gard’s offense to a strictly once-in-a-while venture.

Crowl accepted the change. He never publicly complained about the shift away from his talents. He seemed content to spend more of his time in the corner.

But, truthfully, the shift was probably the best thing for Crowl’s career and reputation.

We’ve seen, when he gets the ball in the post, that he’s pretty good. That’s it. He’s not dominant. He’ll never scare any Big Ten center who’s really worth a damn.

The 7-footer has been efficient inside; his 60.3 shooting percentage on 2-pointers is a career-high. But against the big, athletic teams like UCLA or Michigan, Crowl often looks more like a freshman than a fifth-year senior.

There have always been flashes of greatness, where it looked like Crowl could someday land on the list of great Badger centers. But the potential was never realized.

If Gard never shifted his offense and instead trusted his offense to run mostly through Crowl, we might be talking about the Joe Krabbenhoft-led Badgers right now.

Ultimately, his decline makes sense from a distance. Wisconsin became a more 3-point centric offense and the center position lost some of its value. The far more head-scratching case is with Klesmit.

Gard completely shifted the offense towards one of the shooting guard’s greatest strengths, and he’s putting up career-low numbers. Klesmit leads the team in 3-point attempts (6.2) but has the second-worst percentage (28.7) in the rotation.

His hot streaks used to be semi-frequent, which excused his quick and sometimes reckless trigger. But those have evaporated this season.

He’s made over two 3-pointers in a game just twice this season — in November against Montana State, then against Marquette in December — where he strangely finished with six on both days.

The team’s “just keep shooting” philosophy also means that Klesmit’s attempts have yet to dip. He’s averaging 5.5 per game in the new year, while only converting 1.6. Imagine telling this to someone during the Bo Ryan era.

Ultimately, the team has gotten along fine despite all of these shortcomings. The Badgers have been so productive this season that the dysfunction of two key veteran starters is an afterthought.

Perhaps Tonje and Blackwell finish the season unscathed and this will never matter. But the past few seasons make optimism difficult.

There are obviously other capable options who will see their fair share of opportunities, like Winter or McGee. But when it comes to sustained trust, Gard would surely like to be able to rely on his two veterans. One is underwhelming. The other, over-indulgent.

In this final stretch of games through March, perhaps they’ll find a way to burst through the disappointment and leave a brighter mark on this season.

But, more likely than not, one or both of them will walk off the court for the last time with their head down, wondering how they couldn’t take advantage of the revolution.

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