MADISON, Wis. — March is finally here.

The weather’s getting warmer. Spring break is beginning. College basketball fans everywhere are rushing to their local drug store to stock up on heartburn medication.

It’s truly a beautiful time.

Every fan with a team in the tournament is obsessed over one of two questions — (1) “Can my team pull off an upset?” And, (2) “My team won’t be on the receiving end of an upset, right?”

Badger fans fall into the latter camp. They’ve experienced a few unexpected losses in recent memory and the wounds remain. But this has looked like one of the better teams of the Greg Gard era. They’ve inspired more optimism than any in years.

Still, this is March. There’s a very real world where the Badgers suffer yet another crushing loss to an inferior opponent. I decided to explore what would need to happen.

The Badgers may be seeded higher and more talented and superior in almost every important metrics. But Montana will enter Thursday with one clear logistical advantage.

The Big Sky held their tournament championship last Wednesday, while the Big Ten held theirs on Sunday. Meaning the Grizzlies will enter with a week of rest, compared to the Badgers’ three days.

Not to mention, this game will be played in Denver, Colorado, a city that famously sits a mile above sea level. Missoula, Montana, where the Grizzlies’ campus is located, sits 3,209 feet above sea level. Madison, on the other hand, is just 873 feet above.

Both of these factors could and should have a major effect on Wisconsin’s energy. They were exhausted in the championship game against Michigan, and looked noticeably worse.

The Grizzlies need to do whatever they can to exploit this disparity.

The logical first step would be to increase the pace of their offense; except they’re not a very fast-paced team. They average 69.3 possessions per game, while the Badgers average 70.5.

Yet the most obvious way to take advantage is through sheer energy and intensity, especially on defense.

They need to make every Badger player’s life a living hell. Pick them up full court. Don’t allow any space on the perimeter. Be physical, even if it leads to fouls.

If Wisconsin’s offense is allowed to operate at their desired pace, the Grizzlies stand no chance.

Although this same logic is true for any underdog. We’re going to see a whole lot of full-court press this weekend.

The difference here is that the Badgers seem especially vulnerable when they lose the intensity battle. Think back to the regular season losses to Michigan State, UCLA or even Penn State.

It’s also hard to forget some of Wisconsin’s recent March Madness letdowns. They looked flat last year against James Madison and suffered an immediate upset. In 2022, they almost lost to Colgate in the first round, then actually lost to Iowa State two days later.

The Grizzlies, meanwhile, have won 14 of their last 15. Confidence won’t be the issue. They’ll come out of the tunnel with nothing to lose, ready to make the Badgers as uncomfortable as humanly possible.

The fatigue factor alone won’t be enough for an early upset, but it could be the first domino to fall.

The Badgers haven’t played a team that looks like this in months.

Their tallest starter, Te'Jon Sawyer, is 6-foot-8. The only taller player on the roster — Jensen Bradtke, 6-foot-10 — averages just 10.5 minutes and didn’t play in the Big Sky title game.

So how do the Badgers attack? The intuitive thought might be to lean on the big men in the post, except this doesn’t often yield the expected results.

They played a small team early in the season in UT-Rio Grande Valley. Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter combined for just 15 points on 5-for-10 shooting that night.

The Vaqueros, in that game, spread the floor on the other end and used their shooting and slashing to render the multi-big lineups useless.

So the post game is out. But can they exploit the height disparity by driving downhill and getting to the line? This is what they did against UT-RGV, and it worked rather well. John Blackwell finished with 30 points on mostly paint jumpers and layups. He and John Tonje combined to shoot 16-of-18 from the free-throw line.

On Thursday, they’ll probably try to drive to the rim as much as they have all season.

But the issue goes back to fatigue. Will the Badgers be able to physically handle running straight to the paint every other play? That could be a recipe for turnovers and quick exhaustion.

The big factor for Wisconsin will be their shooting. If they get hot, Montana likely doesn’t stand a chance. But we just saw a tired Badgers team repeatedly settle for 3-pointers against Michigan, but only made 7-of-39 attempts.

This has become a somewhat worrying trend for the Badgers. They’re shooting just 29.9 percent over the past month, which has allowed many mediocre opponents to stick around and even win, like Minnesota or Penn State.

If the Grizzlies put their energy into limiting quality attempts, everything else could fall into place.

The key for Montana, defensively, should be to limit Wisconsin’s 3-pointers. Inversely, however, they need to be able to compete from distance on the other end.

This Grizzlies team shoots efficiently, but not often. They make 36.0 percent (72nd highest in the country) on just 20.4 attempts per game (282nd). For comparison, the Badgers make 34.9 percent on 28.4 attempts per game.

The Grizzlies have shown a willingness to shoot. In the Big Sky Tournament semi-final against Idaho, they shot 14-of-36 from deep, leading to a 78-55 win.

There was a six-game stretch between Jan. 20 and Feb. 8 where they made 9.6 3-pointers per game on 49.1 percent shooting.

Ultimately, it’s never become an aspect of their identity. But this is basketball. More 3-pointers lead to more variance, and higher variance is good for underdogs.

Maybe the biggest upset of last year’s first round was between a No. 3 and No. 14, when Oakland shot 48 percent from 3, compared to Kentucky’s 32.

So who can be this year’s Jack Goehlke?

Guard Malik Moore is likely the team’s best 3-point shooter. He makes 2.1 3-pointers per game on 41.1 shooting. But my sleeper pick is reserve guard Austin Patterson. He averaged 5.7 points in 19.6 minutes for the Grizzlies this season, but made 5-of-10 3-point attempts against Idaho in the semifinal.

Ultimately, this isn’t their style. There’s a solid chance they just stick to what they’re best at, and that’s two-pointers.

But what do they have to lose? This is a program that’s only ever won two games in the NCAA Tournament.

March Madness is a volatile and beautiful time. Anything can happen.

A team like the Grizzlies, who nobody really expects to win, should take every risk that they can. This Badger team is far from invincible.

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