Summer is fast approaching its end, the college football season is around the corner, and with it hoops isn’t too far to follow. With a bunch of teams in action throughout Europe, I thought it would be a good time to dive into the individual players in the conference and discuss the relative strengths and weaknesses of each position throughout the Big Ten, starting with the guards.

I organized these categories by the positions they played last year on their respective teams, and not necessarily what their size or skill set may dictate (i.e. Jaden Akins is a guard but he’s playing the SF position so he’s ranked with the wings, TSJ is probably more of a wing than a true guard but he’s playing at the 2).

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but I tried to provide a semi-objective foundation for my selections based on past body of work, anticipated role with the current roster, and suspected production leap for the 2023-24 season.

I am sure this will be well received by all the fanbases. So without further ado, here we go!

Illinois’ roster would have been in a dark place if TSJ had decided not to return to the Fighting Illini. A widely projected mid second round NBA draft pick, Shannon, Jr. will look to build on last year’s performance where he averaged the third most points (17.2 PPG) of any guard in the conference behind Jalen Pickett (17.7 PPG) and Boo Buie (17.3 PPG).

With the departure of Matthew Mayer and perhaps an even larger need for his scoring ability on the roster this year, it’s not out of the question for Shannon to reach near the 20 PPG mark this season. In his second game abroad he had 24 points in 15 minutes in the first half, and last year he scored 20+ points in 11 contests, including five games of 25+ points.

At 6’6” 210 lbs with great athleticism and a diverse offensive package, TSJ proved he was not only a great offensive player but also the best two-way perimeter player in the conference. While I maintain some skepticism on how Illinois as a whole fare this season in the Big Ten, there’s little doubt in my mind that Shannon will earn All Big Ten first team honors on his way to another incredible individual season.

After an up and down first year in the Big Ten, Tyson shook off any sign of inconsistency and put together an incredible 2022-23 campaign at Michigan State. Down the stretch run eight games of the season, including tournament play, he averaged 18.6 PPG, 3.8 APG, 2.9 RPG on 50.5/47.1/82.1 splits.

While he may lack the size and physicality of Terrence Shannon, Jr., his ability to navigate ball screens and score at all three levels off the bounce makes him one of the most dangerous guards in not only the conference but the country. Multiple times throughout March when MSU’s offense hit the brakes and scoring was desperately needed, Walker rose to the occasion and delivered timely, big ball buckets to turn the tide.

A HUGE boon to a Spartans’ roster loaded with guard talent, Walker’s return for a fifth season raises the expectations sky high in East Lansing once again. If MSU is to earn a top four seed and make a legitimate third weekend run in the NCAA tournament, Tyson Walker will need to be special this year. I think it’s a relatively safe bet he does just that.

I’ve personally never been a huge Boo Buie guy, but after the SR year he put together last year, leading Northwestern to a 22-12 record and a second overall finish in the Big Ten, willing the program to just their second all time NCAA tournament appearance, I’m officially turning into a believer.

While news recently broke this month that Buie had offseason surgery on his shooting hand, assuming he returns healthy, Buie is sure to eclipse the 20 PPG mark with Chase Audige’s departure. Buie scored 20 points in a win at Michigan State, 26 in a win at Indiana, 26 in a home win against Purdue and averaged 20 PPG in his two tournament appearances.

Although the 3FG efficiency leaves a bit to be desired, Buie is one of the best pure bucket getters the league has had at the guard position over the last decade, Even though NU may be more of a fringe tourney team next year, Buie is sure to garner continued respect as a cold-blooded killer on the hardwood in his fifth and final season in the Big Ten.

Hoggard has traversed up and down and around the love/hate carousel with Izzo throughout his career, but it felt like something FINALLY clicked in the NCAA tournament. His highs and lows have been well documented, and were again evident throughout parts of last season, but his 25 PTS, 6 AST, 2 BLK, 2 REB performance against Kansas State where he went 7/14 FG and 10/11 FT line, scoring seven points in OT in a devastating Sweet 16 loss, felt like a moment from which to build real consistency towards next season.

He went from 21.9% from deep and 63% from the FT line his SO year to 32.9% from deep and 80.4% from FT line his Jr year, and summer film has shown AJ to be in the best shape of his life, with the jumper continuing to be sharpened. After limited rim pressure in his frontcourt over his first three years, the emergence of Carson Cooper late last year, and the additions of Coen Carr and Xavier Booker this year will provide a multitude of lob threats beside Mady Sissoko that Hoggard has never had in his Spartan tenure.

All of Izzo’s great teams have had a lead guard capable of stirring the drink for the rest of the roster, and I’m certain the league’s best passer is itching to test out the new weapons around him.

Making the leap from Conference USA to the Big Ten is not an easy jump. Getting used to the size, speed, and physicality of a power conference can yield mixed results. It’s a safe bet to assume that Young, who had a really strong first season, has fully acclimated at this point and is in line for another jump in 2023-24.

With limited scoring on the roster around him last season, Young was forced to take a ton of difficult shots, and his efficiency suffered as a result. The hope this year is that freshman backcourt mate Deshawn Harris-Smith (more on him later), will ease some of the creation burden on his plate, and free up Young to do what he does best, get buckets. Fourth overall in FT% last season for Big Ten players, Young got to the line an impressive 4.9 times a game, converting at an 83.1% clip (only Shannon, Jr. got to the line more out of conference perimeter players). His 3PT% needs to go up, but given his 35% 3FG shooting on five 3FGA over three years at Charlotte, it feels like a return to the mean is likely this upcoming season.

The production is certain to be there again as Maryland will need every bit of it, the question is will the efficiency follow?

I witnessed Bruce Thornton’s emergence first hand at the Breslin Center at the end of last season, as he scored 20 points on 7/15 shooting from the field in a game that got uncomfortably close late in the game for the Spartans on their home floor.

He finished 2022-23 averaging 16.4 PPG, 3 APG to 1 TOV, 3 RPG on 50/38.2/64 splits over his last eight games, and appeared to solidify his future role as the team leader for a squad that was reeling for long stretches of Big Ten play. With OSU’s 2022 freshmen class put through a trial by fire, and another top ten class hitting Columbus’ campus, the group is young in their most important parts, but extremely talented.

A wrecking ball downhill, and a burgeoning off the bounce shooter, Thornton seems poised for a breakout season, in what should be a redemption year for Holtmann and the Buckeyes.

I was skeptical of Purdue’s all freshmen backcourt heading into last season, but after going through some lumps, Braden Smith looks ready for a significant sophomore leap. Early returns on their European tour, sans Edey, have shown Smith willingly hunting offensive shots, creating chaos with his length and quick hands defensively, and sharing the rock.

Perhaps the most creative passer in the league behind AJ Hoggard, confidence and another summer should pay huge dividends in both the production and impact category for Smith. Although he had a somewhat disappointing last 8 games of the season where he averaged just 8.1 PPG, 4.5 APG to 2 TOV, 3.6 RPG on 36.2/25/85 splits (including just 7 points on 2/10 from the field in their loss to 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson), Smith is another sophomore guard that I’m pegging for a significant sophomore leap that should see him as the second most important player on Purdue’s Final Four hopeful squad.

If Michigan is going to make the tourney next year it will be in large part because Dug takes a huge leap his sophomore season and becomes the proverbial team leader Michigan lacked last year as they look to get the program back on track.

With Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin off to the NBA, and Hunter Dickinson transferring to Kansas, MI lost A TON of offensive production. There is a huge opportunity for Dug to become the primary engine of the offense and while that may come with some mixed results as he continues to grow into the role, he’s a guy that is a fearless competitor and plays with a real edge. Over the last eight games of the season he averaged 13.8 PPG, 3.5 APG to 1.8 TOV, and 2.9 RPG on 45.4/43.3/77.1 splits, scoring 16+ points in five out of eight of those contests.

Dug should pick up where he left off to close the year and is in line for a significant production jump for a Michigan team that will have less talent - but perhaps more heart - in 2023-24.

If Wisconsin finishes in the top 4-5 of the conference, which is a real possibility this year, in large part it will be as a result of Gard crafting his offense around Connor Essegian (and AJ Storr). I was close to bumping Essegian into the tier above, but it’s difficult to know how Gard intends to shape the offense this season, and whether Essegian becomes the focal point over veteran stalwarts like Chucky Hepburn, Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl.

If Wisconsin wants to rewrite the script on an abysmal 2022-23 season, it’s pretty clear the offense needs an overhaul after they finished 140th in Kenpom’s offensive efficiency. Over his last 11 games in the Big Ten, Essegian averaged 14.5 PPG and 4.5 RPG on 39.6/30.7/85.7 splits while attempting 6.8 3FGA. His efficiency suffered a bit as his role increased, but his shot making ability was on full display as he scored 15+ points in eight games as a freshmen, seven of which came against Big Ten competition, and the eighth against Kansas in early non-conference play.

Essegian has an “it” factor that can’t be quantified, and - if given the proper opportunity - should shine in his sophomore season.

There were a few vets I could have chosen for the final spot on this list, but I went instead with the youthful upside. Deshawn Harris Smith is my personal frontrunner for FOY, and has all the upside to potentially be a one-and-done NBA draft pick. I’ve gone down the rabbit hole on his film several times and there may not be a bigger swing piece on any roster in the conference than what Maryland ends up getting out of DHS.

A physical, downhill guard with the ability to finish both above the rim with power or craftily with finesse, Harris-Smith should fit snugly beside Young to give Maryland one of the more potent 1-2 scoring combos in the Big Ten this year. The combination of opportunity and skill set should allow DHS to have big year for the Terps, and I anticipate he does just that.

There’s a few guys who were left off this top ten that are worth mentioning. Keisei Tominaga’s return for Nebraska was big. He averaged 13.1 PPG last year on an insane 50.3/40/86.8 splits. However with the departures of Sam Griesel and Derrick Walker, Tominaga is likely to see significantly more attention on the scouting report and while it’s fair to anticipate his production remains around the 13-15 PPG mark, his efficiency is likely to take a hit as he becomes the opposing defenses primary focal point. Nebraska also figures to remain in the cellar and, for how good he was last year, I am not sure he is going to be the difference to turning that around.

I was also extremely torn on what to do with Xavier Johnson. I think the narrative in the conference has swung a little too far in the wrong direction on him, and while to me he’s more of a middle of the pack PG in the league, outside of maybe four or five teams, there’s a debate that his addition to other rosters (I am looking at you Illinois) would help put a team over the top. He had a bit of a rocky start to his senior year before breaking his foot, but he’s a year removed from averaging 12-4-5 as a junior. That’s very solid production. My real issue for keeping him off the top ten list is that the roster around him for Indiana this year is going to dictate that he’s the primary engine for the offense and I’m skeptical that’s the best role for him. He’s a guy that for me is better situated to being a solid second option or a really good third option, and now he’s in a spot where he needs to do A LOT for Indiana. He should have the production to be in the discussion as one of the better guards in the conference, but I’m a bit leery that translates to Indiana being anything but the 6-8th best team in the Big Ten next year.

Fletcher Loyer for Purdue was also a consideration. Loyer was incredible to start the season but hit a hard freshman wall late and over his last ten games averaged just 6.9 PPG on 28.4/24.3/72 splits. He’s a better shooter than he showed last year from deep (32.6%), and he has some self-creation upside to his game off the bounce, but he was kept off the list as I think his offensive role stays similar to last year. Zach Edey will be the focal point of the offense, Braden Smith appears to be emerging as a viable second option and drink stirrer and guys like Myles Colvin, Camden Heide, Brian Waddell, and Trey Kaufman-Renn all seem in line for larger roles. As a result, I am not sure there is an opportunity for Loyer to see a significant production leap, although I expect his efficiency numbers to be better.

After what has felt like a serious drought of steady guard play top to bottom in the conference, the league looks poised to have a really good crop of guards in 2023-24. The point guard position, especially, has seen a wave of young and super talented players coming into the Big Ten, and the health of that position is as good as it has been in quite some time.

There is a wide variety of guards in the league that physically and stylistically should make for some riveting matchups throughout the year. After being pigeon-holed as a league that typically lives and dies by how good the C spot is, this year there should be much more national chatter about the strengths of the backcourts in the Big Ten which will be a refreshing change. Hopefully it translates to greater Big Ten success overall in the NCAA tournament this year.

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