Wisconsin heads into November controlling its path to Indianapolis, but it needs to take care of business in Piscataway this weekend.
UW (5-3 overall, 3-2 Big Ten) will duel with Rutgers (4-4, 1-4) on Saturday inside SHI Stadium (2:30 p.m. CT, BTN). The Badgers lead the all-time series 3-0.
BadgerBlitz.com presents its weekly "Pre-Snap Read," highlighting three keys to a Wisconsin victory over Rutgers, plus staff predictions for the cross-divisional clash.
FIRST READ: SAME OLE STUFF AS SEEN IN THE LAST FOUR WINS
That whole adage of "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" applies here this weekend. Wisconsin has won its last four games with the combination of an overwhelming defense and assertive rushing attack on offense. In each instance, UW is winning the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
Rutgers rushed for 230 yards at Illinois last week, but UW accumulated 391 against Bret Bielema's program to kick off the four-game winning streak. On top of that, Jim Leonhard's defense leads the nation in rushing yards allowed per game (49.6).
On the flip side, UW is averaging 212.3 yards per game on the ground -- 1,045 in the past four contests. Junior Chez Mellusi and true freshman Braelon Allen have become the one-two punch at tailback, and the blocking in front of them has improved. Rutgers held Illinois to just 107 yards on 30 carries last week, but it has given up 208 and 249 yards to Ohio State and Michigan State, respectively, earlier this season.
The third component of this comes from Wisconsin protecting the ball more. Quarterback Graham Mertz has only one interception thrown in the last four games, and team overall is averaging just over one turnover given up in those wins. UW actually holds a +6 turnover margin in its last two victories.
Keep this up, and Wisconsin should be able to fly back to Madison all smiles for making it 5-0.
SECOND READ: DO NOT LET RUTGERS SPECIAL TEAMS, WITH OR WITHOUT ARON CRUICKSHANK, PROVIDE KEY PLAYS
This one becomes even more critical if former Wisconsin standout returner Aron Cruickshank is able to play. However, his status remains uncertain as heard during Greg Schiano's Monday press conference due to a shoulder injury suffered a few weeks back against Michigan State.
BadgerBlitz.com highlighted Cruickshank's evolution into one of the nation's top returners and critical component of Rutgers' offense earlier this week. When healthy, he averages over 19 yards per punt return this season, and last year, he claimed the conference's return specialist of the year honor. The Scarlet Knights average over 12 yards per punt return overall, thanks in large part to his efforts.
That's not all Wisconsin will need to contend with, and its return units will need to ensure any negative game-altering plays are held to a minimum. Adam Korsak, the senior from Australia, averages 47.5 yards per punt in 42 attempts this season. Twenty-three of those boots have landed inside opponents' 20-yard line, and 16 have gone 50 or more yards.
Rutgers only allows just over four yards per punt return, and opponents gain just 17.3 yards per kickoff return.
THIRD READ: GET THE PASSING GAME ROLLING
I've mentioned it earlier this week -- Wisconsin may have an opportunity to get things rolling on offense in a more consistent manner on Saturday. Rutgers enters this weekend ranked 96th in the FBS in team passing efficiency defense (142.78) and 51st in passing yards allowed per game (216.1).
The Scarlet Knights' defense gave up at least 190 passing yards in its last four contests and, for that matter, it allowed 12 total touchdowns in that timespan as well. Northwestern, which ranks 108th in the nation heading into this weekend (181.2 yards per outing), threw for 267 on Oct. 16.
Wisconsin got the passing game going early on last week against Iowa. Mertz completed 9-of-10 throws to start the contest to help keep the Hawkeyes honest against the run. He cooled off thereafter, but the ingredients are there to utilize receiving threats like Danny Davis, Kendric Pryor, Chimere Dike and Jake Ferguson more.
The big question is, can this aerial attack -- which is 125th in the nation in both passing yards per game and team passer efficiency rating as of earlier this week -- now be a sustainable threat?
STAFF PREDICTIONS
SENIOR WRITER JAKE KOCOROWSKI
I already laid out my keys this week as seen above. I’ll keep this short and sweet -- if Wisconsin takes care of business via the formula it has used during this streak, along with containing any special teams threat posed by Rutgers, it should win this game easily. I think the Badgers accomplish that in Piscataway in decisive fashion before moving on to its final three Big Ten West contests.
Wisconsin 30, Rutgers 6
SENIOR WRITER BENJAMIN WORGULL
Beating Illinois and Army to get its feet under them is one thing, but knocking down ranked opponents Purdue and Iowa is something different. The Badgers find themselves on a four-game winning streak for the first time in nearly two years because the program returned to their roots of a stifling defense and a power running game.
UW’s defense remains a force, ranking in the top 10 in all major categories. The UW rush defense ranks first nationally in allowing 49.6 yards per game. If you took out the sack yardage, the Badgers are at 69.8 yards per game, which is still more than five yards per game less than what second-ranked Georgia is allowing. What has made a big difference is flipping field position. After forcing just four turnovers during their first six games, the Badgers have created eight in their last two.
UW rushed for a total of 121 yards against Notre Dame and Michigan, but the Badgers have averaged 261.3 rushing yards per game during their winning streak. Chez Mellusi (408 yards, 2 touchdowns) has been solid, but freshman Braelon Allen (483 yds, four touchdowns) has been dynamic with four straight 100-yard games.
The Badgers would have to play their worst game of the season to give Rutgers a chance Saturday. The Scarlet Knights lost their first four Big Ten games before slipping past Illinois last weekend and rank either ninth or 10th in major offensive and defensive categories. Considering how the season started for Wisconsin, I can’t see the Badgers looking past anyone.
Wisconsin 38, Rutgers 7
STAFF WRITER RAUL VAZQUEZ
Everything about this matchup points in Wisconsin’s favor. Going on the road after handling a pair of ranked foes leaves some room to look ahead, but as Ben mentioned, you can’t imagine UW will do that given the three blemishes on its record. With the success they had on the ground against Iowa and Purdue, they should be able to do more of the same against the Scarlet Knights while the nation’s top defense handles Noah Vedral and Rutgers.
With Wisconsin firmly planting their identity, you’d like to see Mertz build on the connection he had with Davis and Ferguson to start against Iowa for the outlook of the offense. In terms of today’s matchup, however, it should be a dominant performance from Wisconsin against a lesser opponent.
Wisconsin 38, Rutgers 7
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