Published Nov 27, 2021
Pre-Snap Read: No. 14 Wisconsin vs. Minnesota
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Jake Kocorowski  •  BadgerBlitz
Senior Writer
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@JakeKoco

Wisconsin boasts eight straight road wins over Minnesota, and it has not lost in the Twin Cities area since the 2003 season. Will this era of dominance continue for Bucky over Goldy this weekend?

UW (8-3 overall, 6-2 Big Ten) holds the overall series lead by a 62-60-8 margin, but Minnesota (7-4, 5-3) holds a 37-27-2 edge in contests played in Minneapolis.

BadgerBlitz.com breaks the huddle with our "Pre-Snap Read" -- three keys to a Wisconsin victory, retaining Paul Bunyan's Axe, and a Big Ten West division title. Plus, we give our staff predictions for Saturday's matchup inside Huntington Bank Stadium (3 p.m. CT, FOX)

FIRST READ: CONTAIN MINNESOTA'S GROUND GAME

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BadgerBlitz.com highlighted this in our weekly "All-Out Blitz" earlier this week:

Minnesota's rushing attack ranks 23rd in the FBS, third in the Big Ten, in accumulating 204.3 yards per contest. It has recently utilized two freshman Ky Thomas (127 carries, 625 yards, 4.9 yards per carry, four touchdowns) and Mar'Keise Irving (102 carries, 531 yards, 5.2 yards per carry, four touchdowns) with season-ending injuries to Mohamed Ibrahim, Trey Potts and Bryce Williams. The duo ran for 175 combined rushing yards and three touchdowns last week at Indiana and 206 yards in a loss at Iowa on Nov. 13.

The Gophers have gained 180 or more rushing yards in eight of its 11 games played and reached that benchmark in five of its last six outings. The Gophers ran for 326 and 308 yards against Maryland and Northwestern, respectively, during that latter time frame.

Thankfully for Wisconsin, it still boasts the nation's best defense against the run, allowing only 64.6 yards per game on 2.2 yards per carry. Nebraska averaged almost 195 yards on the ground heading into last weekend's contest, and UW constricted that attack to 101 yards on 2.9 yards per attempt.

Stifle Minnesota's effectiveness in the run game, and UW should be able to take care of quarterback Tanner Morgan and the passing attack. The Gophers rank 117th in the nation in passing yards per game, while UW ranks sixth in yards allowed through the air (and fifth in passing efficiency defense).

SECOND READ: CONTINUE SAME OLE STUFF ON OFFENSE AS SEEN RECENTLY

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Wisconsin has shown complementary football in consistent fashion in the last three weeks, and one could even date back to the first half of the Iowa win to see the running and passing attacks really working well off of each other.

Last week, the rushing attack led the way with 252 yards on 8.1 yards per carry. True freshman tailback Braelon Allen ran for a career-high 228 yards on 22 attempts with three touchdowns. However, quarterback Graham Mertz completed 12-of-18 passes for 145 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. The previous weeks before, he threw for 240 and 216 yards against Rutgers and Northwestern, respectively.

Wisconsin may not necessarily need a balanced attack on offense to be successful, especially when watching what Allen and those in front of him have achieved in the last seven games. However, having that ability of the run and pass playiing off of one another has added a much-needed dimension defenses need to scout for. Mertz and his receiving targets, along with the protection on the offensive line, need to continue showing these recent successes.

UW will be challenged, however, by this Minnesota defense. It ranks among the best in the conference and the nation in several categories. That includes the following:

*Scoring defense: 18.7 points per game (fifth in Big Ten, 13th in FBS)

*Total defense: 289.5 yards per game (second in Big Ten, fourth in FBS)

*Rushing defense: 103.6 yards per game (third in Big Ten, 12th in FBS)

*Passing defense: 185.9 yards per game (third in Big Ten, 13th in FBS)

THIRD READ: GET MINNESOTA OFF THE FIELD ON THIRD DOWN

Wisconsin ranks second in the FBS in third-down conversion defense (25.2%), stifling opponents when attempting to move the chains. However, Jim Leonhard's unit allowed Nebraska to convert on four third downs out of nine opportunities last weekend.

On the flip side, Minnesota's offense ranks among the best in the conference and nation in third down conversions at a clip of 45.6%. That places the Gophers third in the Big Ten and 21st in the FBS in that particular category.

With Minnesota's reliance on the ground game, it actually controls the ball more than Wisconsin this season. P.J. Fleck's program ranks third in the FBS, first in the Big Ten, in time of possession (35:37 per contest). UW sits second in the conference, seventh in the country (33:56).

Pretty easy here, and again, quite cliché -- get the Gophers off the field early on their series, and you have a great shot at winning. If not, that could wear down not just Wisconsin's defense, but anyone's.

GAME PREDICTIONS

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SENIOR WRITER JAKE KOCOROWSKI

These two teams mirror each other in how they like to win this season: dominant run games and boasting really good defensive units. This is a rivalry game, so weird things can always happen when the battle for the Axe commences.

That being said, I think Wisconsin will have the opportunity to not only run the ball offensively but contain Minnesota’s potent ground attack. Complementary football will be key for UW with Mertz’s ability to extend drives and make the right throws.

I believe whoever loses the turnover battle will fall on Saturday. The Badgers have been much better of late protecting the ball and creating opportunities. We’ll see if that trend continues this weekend, and if UW will punch its ticket to Indianapolis. I think they do.

Wisconsin 24, Minnesota 9

SENIOR WRITER BENJAMIN WORGULL

The development of Wisconsin’s offense over the last three weeks has breathed more excitement into the Badgers team, especially last weekend. On a rare Saturday when Wisconsin’s defense was being gashed by an opponent, the offense stepped up to the plate to carry the burden. It was a critical victory because the Badgers go into the regular-season final knowing a win puts them in the conference title game. It’s similar to the situation two years ago when the Badgers thumped the Gophers in Minneapolis.

The Gophers do a lot of things well defensively, but Wisconsin has been playing cleaner football and the emergence of Braelon Allen at tailback has given the offense a different dimension and a bigger swagger. Throw in the fact that defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard’s defense usually doesn’t get fooled in consecutive weeks, there’s a lot of reasons to like the Badgers.

Besides, pIcking Wisconsin to beat Minnesota is like going back for seconds at the Thanksgiving dinner table: you know you should do it, you prepare to do it all year long, and you don’t regret the decision after you’ve done it.

Wisconsin 27, Minnesota 14

STAFF WRITER RAUL VAZQUEZ

Personally, I expect this years edition of the border battle to be much like the memorable bout in 2019 in which Wisconsin ran away with a 38-17 victory. Outside of a deep shot to Rashod Bateman to open the game, Wisconsin was never really threatened in that contest.

With Graham Mertz and the offense playing their best ball, it’s hard not to like the Badgers. The defensive side of the ball looked pedestrian for the first time all season last week but Tanner Morgan isn’t nearly the threat that Adrian Martinez is, particularly with his legs, and the front seven to contain the ground game. The protection for Mertz and his turnovers that were glaring issues to open the year have been resolved for the most part, and UW looks like the team many expected them to be in the preseason.

Should be much more of the same on Saturday with the Badgers retaining the Axe and maintaining their control on the rivalry and the Big Ten West.

Wisconsin 34, Minnesota 13

EDITOR/RECRUITING ANALYST JON MCNAMARA

Wisconsin fans were wondering if Nebraska laid out the blueprint to beat the Badgers last week. While the Huskers had success moving the football last Saturday, Minnesota simply isn't built the same, specifically at quarterback and receiver. The Gophers are going to try and run the football, something UW (No. 1 in the country at 64.3 yards) has been able to shut down all the season. With the offense also playing well, I think Wisconsin wins by two scores.

Wisconsin 28, Minnesota 14

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