Published Nov 26, 2021
All-Out Blitz: No. 14 Wisconsin vs. Minnesota
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Jake Kocorowski  •  BadgerBlitz
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Two rivals once again tussle for the right to carry Paul Bunyan's Axe for the next year, but much more is on the line in the Twin Cities this weekend.

BadgerBlitz.com presents its "All-Out Blitz," highlighting key matchups between Wisconsin (8-3 overall, 6-2 Big Ten) and Minnesota (7-4, 5-3) before Saturday's matchup in Huntington Bank Stadium (3 p.m. CT, FOX).

WHEN MINNESOTA HAS THE BALL

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COMPARING THE PROJECTED STARTERS
Minnesota's projected starters from recent starters against Indiana
Wisconsin 2021 PFF GradeMinnesota2021 PFF Grade

DE - Matt Henningsen

78.3

LT - Sam Schlueter

59.6

NT - Keeanu Benton

64.7

LG - Conner Olson

75.3

DE - Isaiah Mullens

71.0

C - John Michael Schmitz

87.3

OLB - Nick Herbig

82.1

RG - Blaise Andries

82.8

ILB - Leo Chenal

91.1

RT - Daniel Faalele

80.2

ILB - Jack Sanborn

86.8

QB - Tanner Morgan

69.1

OLB - Noah Burks

75.1

RB - Ky Thomas

78.8

CB - Caesar Williams

78.2

WR - Chris Autman-Bell

80.1

S - Scott Nelson

68.8

WR - Mike Brown-Stephens

65.4

S - Collin Wilder

73.3

TE - Brevyn Spann-Ford

75.9

CB - Faion Hicks

56.3

TE - Ko Kieft

93.1

It will be strength-on-strength this weekend when Wisconsin and Minnesota clash in the Twin Cities. Cornerback Faion Hicks believes Minnesota, which averages 26.4 points per game, has "a really good offense that has an identity."

"They want to run the ball downhill," Hicks said on Monday. "It’s going to be a physical game. They’re going to make it physical. We’ve just got to be ready for it."

Minnesota's rushing attack ranks 23rd in the FBS, third in the Big Ten, in accumulating 204.3 yards per contest. It has recently utilized two freshmen Ky Thomas (127 carries, 625 yards, 4.9 yards per carry, four touchdowns) and Mar'Keise Irving (102 carries, 531 yards, 5.2 yards per carry, four touchdowns) following season-ending injuries to Mohamed Ibrahim, Trey Potts and Bryce Williams. The freshman duo ran for a combined 175 rushing yards and three touchdowns last week at Indiana and 206 yards in a loss at Iowa on Nov. 13.

The Gophers have gained 180 or more rushing yards in eight of the 11 games its played, reaching that benchmark in five of its last six outings. The Gophers ran for 326 and 308 yards against Maryland and Northwestern, respectively, during that latter time frame.

Offensive linemen John Michael Schmitz (87.3), Blaise Andries (82.8), Daniel Faalele: (80.2) all have played over 700 snaps and have graded out at 80.0 or higher this season, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF).

Minnesota will attempt to establish control at the line of scrimmage against a Wisconsin defense that allows just 2.2 yards per carry and leads the country in rush defense (64.6 yards per game). Inside linebackers Leo Chenal and Jack Sanborn have combined for 173 tackles and 29.5 tackles for loss through 11 games.

Minnesota averages 163.5 passing yards per game, good for only 117th in the nation. Quarterback Tanner Morgan will face Wisconsin for the fourth time in his collegiate career. The fifth-year senior has completed 58.8% of his throws for 1,736 yards with nine touchdowns to seven interceptions so far in 2021. Wide receiver Chris Autman-Bell leads the team in receptions (33), receiving yards (453) and touchdown catches (five).

Wisconsin ranks sixth in the nation, once again first in the conference, in pass defense (allowing 173.5 yards per game) and fifth in the FBS in passing efficiency defense (106.0).

UW ranks second in the country in third-down conversion defense (25.2%), but Minnesota has moved the chains 45.6% of the time on that down. The Gophers rank 21st in the FBS in that category.

Sacks and turnovers may be hard to come by for Wisconsin, which currently holds 30 and 22, respectively, heading into Axe Week. Minnesota has allowed a mere 17 sacks through 11 games while coughing up the ball just 10 times (seven interceptions, three fumbles). Chenal, a Butkus Award finalist, and outside linebacker Nick Herbig have combined for 13.5 sacks.

WHEN WISCONSIN HAS THE BALL

COMPARING THE PROJECTED STARTERS
Minnesota projected starters from recent starters vs. Indiana
Wisconsin 2021 PFF GradeMinnesota2021 PFF Grade

LT - Tyler Beach

69.3

DE - Esezi Otomewo

79.9

LG - Josh Seltzner

84.0

DT - Nyles Pickney

59.6

C - Joe Tippmann

85.5

DT - Trill Carter

59.2

RG - Jack Nelson

69.9

DE - Boye Mafe

81.5

RT - Logan Bruss

85.7

LB - Jack Gibbens

69.8

QB - Graham Mertz

66.8

LB - Mariano Sori-Marin

64.1

RB - Braelon Allen

81.9

LB - Braelen Oliver

50.5

FB - John Chenal

74.8

CB - Justin Walley

74.8

WR - Danny Davis

72.4

S - Jordan Howden

72.2

WR - Kendric Pryor

70.0

S - Tyler Nubin

70.7

TE - Jake Ferguson

86.7

CB - Coney Durr

69.3

Wisconsin enters Huntington Bank Stadium averaging 27 points per game, 76th in the nation; however, it has averaged 35.8 in its last five games. Minnesota has allowed only 18.7 points per outing this year, which ranks fifth in the Big Ten and 13th in the nation.

"They’re a great defense," Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz said on Monday. "Ten returning starters. You can tell they’re a veteran group, play off each other, play physical. Definitely a really good group. It’ll be a fun challenge."

Can Wisconsin run over another Big Ten opponent? That will be another challenge for Joe Rudolph's line and the offense overall, which enters the game first in the conference in rushing yards per game (229.4) and ninth in the nation. Minnesota has contained its opponents, allowing 103.6 yards per outing. That's good for third in the Big Ten and 12th in the FBS, and the unit gives up 3.5 yards per carry.

The Gophers will need to stop true freshman tailback Braelon Allen and his subsequent hype train after a seven-game stretch where he has achieved 100 yards or more in each contest. The first-year Badger has accumulated 1,062 yards overall this season on 7.6 yards per carry with 12 rushing scores -- including a career-high 228 yards on 22 carries with three scores against Nebraska last week. Linebackers Jack Gibbens (76 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss) and Mariano Sori-Marin (75 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles) may have their hands full.

Like Minnesota, Wisconsin's passing game does not stand out on paper, ranking 118th in the FBS and second-to-last in the Big Ten in yards per contest (161.3). However, Mertz and the aerial attack have improved in recent weeks. The third-year sophomore has completed 41 of 57 (71.9%) of his throws for 601 yards and six touchdowns to two interceptions against UW's last three foes in Rutgers, Northwestern and Nebraska.

The Gophers will need to contain a trio of seniors in Danny Davis III (27 receptions, 418 yards, two touchdowns), Kendric Pryor (26, 373, three) and Jake Ferguson (39, 390, two). That being said, its defense ranks 13th in the country, third in the Big Ten, in passing yards allowed per game.

Mertz will need to pay attention to safety Tyler Nubin, who, along with 39 tackles, leads the team with three interceptions. Cornerbacks Justin Walley (23 tackles, six pass breakups) and Coney Durr: (34 tackles, four tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, four pass breakups) will also be players to watch in the Minnesota secondary.

Wisconsin's offensive line has improved, giving up only five sacks in the last seven games. Minnesota averages less than two per contest, but the line will need to contain defensive linemen Boye Mafe (28 tackles, nine tackles for loss, six sacks), Thomas Rush (25 tackles, seven tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks) and Trill Carter (19 tackles, five tackles for loss, one sack).

UW has protected the ball recently, only committing six turnovers in the last five games. Minnesota enters the clash with 14 takeaways (six interceptions, eight fumble recoveries).

In terms of third-down conversions, Wisconsin ranks tied for 115th in the FBS (33.3%). Minnesota has allowed opponents to move the chains on 36.5% of those downs.

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