The No. 18 Wisconsin Badgers tussle with the No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a hyped-up Shamrock Series showdown in Chicago.
BadgerBlitz.com breaks down its three keys to the game before head coach Paul Chryst and his program take the field against Brian Kelly and the Fighting Irish on Saturday inside Soldier Field (11 a.m. CT, FOX).
QUICK PROGRAM FACTS
Head Coach: Brian Kelly (105-39 at Notre Dame)
2021 Record: 3-0
Rankings: No. 12 AP poll/No. 10 Coaches poll
Series when played in Soldier Field: Notre Dame leads 1-0 (a 19-0 victory on Oct. 19, 1929)
FIRST READ: CREATE HAVOC IN THE NOTRE DAME BACKFIELD, THEN SUDDEN CHANGE OPPORTUNITIES
Don't let the stats fool you. Wisconsin has applied pressure on opposing offenses this season already through two games, despite only registering four official sacks on the stats sheets. As said nearly ad nauseam this week in various BadgerBlitz.com articles, Notre Dame has allowed four or more sacks in each of its three games.
The Fighting Irish rushing attack has been subpar this year -- averaging just over 105 yards per game -- while the Badgers lead the nation in run defense (33 yards allowed per contest). Of course, Jim Leonhard's unit will work to thwart the ground game of Notre Dame, and if it does, there lies a key advantage for Wisconsin on Saturday.
Leonhard plays chess with pass rush so well that they can exact pressure upon opposing offenses with just four players. It just depends on how they disguise it and where they come from. Will junior inside linebacker Leo Chenal, who is expected to return on Saturday after testing positive for COVID-19 two weeks ago, provide a spark in kicking up the sack numbers?
I expect the defense to rack up some tackles for loss and get home to the quarterback, and if it does, the opportunities for turnovers could change the trajectory of the game. Penn State's two red zone takeaways in Wisconsin's Sept. 4 loss cost the Badgers the chance to come out with a win (granted, one fumble was self-inflicted by Chryst's offense).
I don't expect Saturday's contest to be a high-scoring affair, so any "sudden change" opportunities could swing the outcome. Don't sack or disrupt quarterback Jack Coan, and Notre Dame's ability to air it out deep could present undesirable consequences.
SECOND READ: ESTABLISH THE GROUND GAME
UW rejuvenating its rushing attack became a takeaway from the first two weeks of the season. Chez Mellusi has rushed for at least 121 yards in each game, Isaac Guerendo showcased his home-run speed with an 82-yard sprint two weekends ago, and Jalen Berger provided another hard-running option in his season debut against Eastern Michigan.
Make no mistake, Wisconsin will need its aerial attack to keep Notre Dame's defense honest from stacking the box with eight or nine players -- especially with the playmaking abilities of All-American safety Kyle Hamilton.
That said, what has worked well for Wisconsin has been its traditional bread and butter. UW ran for 10 or more yards eight times in the loss against Penn State, and followed up that performance with four rushes of that nature against Eastern Michigan (two of those against the Eagles resulted in 142 yards and one touchdown).
Notre Dame allowed 264 rushing yards against Florida State, but it improved its numbers against Toledo and Purdue in recent weeks (124 and 57, respectively). However, the Boilermakers' offense missed starting running back Zander Horvath, who was out due to injury. Jeff Brohm's scheme may be averaging over 110 yards per contest through three games -- which includes the minuscule amount accumulated against Brian Kelly's program last week -- but it has not produced a full seasonal average of 100 or more yards per game since 2018.
This will be the major test for Marcus Freeman's defense. If Wisconsin asserts itself early on, it can grind down its opponents, chew up the clock and put itself in position to put points on the scoreboard. If not, can quarterback Graham Mertz and the passing game pick up the slack?
THIRD READ: CONVERT ON THIRD DOWN AND THE RED ZONE
Perhaps this should be the first read. Wisconsin ranks 128th in the nation, converting just 5-of-10 chances inside opponents' 20-yard line. Notre Dame has allowed opponents to score on 10-of-12 red zone opportunities in three games; however, only five of those 10 have been touchdowns.
The Badgers improved against Eastern Michigan in the red zone after a disastrous 1-of-4 showing against Penn State, scoring on 4-of-6 chances. However, BadgerBlitz.com noted the missed opportunities in that contest during our 3Cs roundtable earlier this week: a 4th down stop at the EMU one-yard-line on the first drive of the game, coupled with a short-armed pick six thrown by quarterback Chase Wolf that neutralized more opportunities for points on the board.
Notre Dame allows opponents to convert on just about 37% of its third-down chances as well. Wisconsin's offense currently sits at 36.4% (12 of 33 through two games) in that category. The Badgers need to bump that number up this week.
GAME PREDICTIONS
SENIOR WRITER JAKE KOCOROWSKI
Cliche as it may be, this game will come down to the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. I feel Wisconsin's front seven will not just contain Notre Dame's rushing attack, but also put the heat on Coan. I don't feel the Fighting Irish have seen an offensive line like the Badgers -- even if it is fluctuating at times.
I think Notre Dame gets one or two big plays on offense, but Wisconsin clamps down enough in that regard. With a week of rest, UW moves the ball enough and capitalizes on its chances to get its signature victory before an intriguing top-20 Michigan program comes to Madison.
Wisconsin 23, Notre Dame 17
SENIOR WRITER BENJAMIN WORGULL
Both teams have been underwhelming to begin the 2021 campaign, so this will be an important litmus test for each program. Wisconsin’s defense has been a dominant group, allowing just two touchdowns through eight quarters, and should be able to pressure the Irish and their inconsistent offensive line. The main worry is Wisconsin’s offense, which has dominated time of possession (41:14 to 18:46) but has missed opportunities on third downs and in the red zone that have cost them points and the opener against Penn State.
Notre Dame’s defense has talent, totaling 13 sacks over the first three games of the season. Considering Mertz hasn’t done well dissecting above average defenses and handling its pressures in his brief tenure, that’s concerning. This should be a low scoring affair, the kind of game where mistakes will be amplified. That’s why former UW quarterback Jack Coan’s experience will be critical and the difference maker for the Irish.
Notre Dame 20, Wisconsin 13
STAFF WRITER RAUL VAZQUEZ
After opening up against Penn State, Wisconsin has another early test, this time against No. 12 Notre Dame and old friend Jack Coan. I fully expect the contest to be close and I am not sure I love Graham Mertz and the offense in a tight game. Mertz is talented and has flashed at times, but he has yet to put it together against above average defenses. I fully expect the Badgers' defense to do all they can and keep UW in it, but the unit has still had the occasional lapse for a big play. Much like Ben, I think the veteran play of Coan and his playmakers will be key even with their offensive line woes. And on the flip side, Mertz and the offense have yet to show they can be trusted in close games. I wouldn’t be surprised if the game follows a similar script to the opener against the Nittany Lions.
Notre Dame 23, Wisconsin 17