BadgerBlitz.com's weekly feature, "The 3Cs," returns for the 2021 season. The staff takes a look at one thing we're curious, confident and concerned about heading into No. 18 Wisconsin's non-conference showdown against No. 12 Notre Dame
Senior writers Jake Kocorowski and Benjamin Worgull, along with staff writer Raul Vazquez, each give their thoughts on the aforementioned topics for this week's contest.
CURIOUS
Kocorowski: I am curious to see how the passing game looks for Wisconsin after a week of rest. The offense has averaged 266 rushing yards per contest so far -- elevated by the 352-yard effort against Eastern Michigan -- but just what will we see from the aerial attack?
Quarterback Graham Mertz looked better against the Eagles two weeks ago after a rough outing against a now top-10 Nittany Lions’ program, completing 14-of-17 passes for 141 yards. However, the rushing attack was the blueprint for the Badgers’ success against an inferior foe (no offense, Eastern Michigan).
Notre Dame’s rush defense has looked better against Toledo and Purdue in the last two weeks after allowing over 250 yards to Florida State. However, those offensive lines are not Wisconsin’s, so it could be a big day for the trio of backs in Chez Mellusi, Isaac Guerendo and Jalen Berger. That said, UW absolutely cannot be one-dimensional against Marcus Freeman’s defense, so this game could act as a statement for the rest of the season with what Mertz and his receiving targets could accomplish.
Worgull: Expanding on what Jake said, I want to see what improvements have been made for Wisconsin’s third-down offense. The Badgers weren’t great on third down in the pandemic shortened 2020 season (seventh in the league at 38%). Even with a full offseason at its disposal, the Badgers have converted just 12-of-33 opportunities through two games, a 36.4% clip. Wisconsin is just 3-for-18 on 3rd-and-4 or longer, so there’s plenty of finger pointing to go around besides looking at Mertz.
Notre Dame has some defensive players who will be collecting NFL paychecks sooner rather than later, but the Irish haven’t performed consistently as a cohesive unit to this point under Freemen in his first year as defensive coordinator. One area where the Irish have been iffy is on third down, ranked 66th in the nation in third-down defense at 36.7 percent (18-for-49).
Coming off a bye week, will the Badgers have corrected the misfires of their defense or will the results (and to a degree, the play calling) be predictable?
Vazquez: Looks like each of us will look at the offense this week. A curious trend has been the shuffling along the offensive line that has happened on a drive-by-drive basis. The changes first showed up with the group struggling early against the Nittany Lions, but associate head coach/offensive line coach Joe Rudolph continued to change up the alignment even after successful drives against Eastern Michigan. Wisconsin’s depth and talent up front is strong, but you have to imagine it would be preferred to allow a unit to gel and gain some continuity together. Right tackle Logan Bruss has been the lone lineman to consistently stay in.
CONFIDENT
Kocorowski: I am confident Wisconsin will apply ample pressure on Notre Dame quarterback Jack Coan. The Fighting Irish offense has allowed at least four sacks in each of their first three games, including six to Toledo two Saturdays ago.
The Badgers have only gotten home to opposing quarterbacks four times total in its first two games. However, Pro Football Focus credited them with 28 pressures altogether in those contests.
UW also expects inside linebacker Leo Chenal to be full go in practice and in the game on Saturday, as confirmed by head coach Paul Chryst on Monday. Can he instantly contribute alongside Jack Sanborn, Nick Herbig, and the defensive line in making Coan uncomfortable?
Perhaps another question comes out of this confident thought — can Wisconsin not only get home for sacks but also create turnovers as well?
Worgull: Yes, Jake, they can because of the return of Chenal. UW missed him the first two games of the season after he tested positive for COVID-19, and his return to the lineup should give the Badgers a jolt with their pass rush. Starting all seven games last season, Chenal led Wisconsin with three sacks, seven quarterback hurries, tied for the team lead with six tackles for loss and was second to Sanborn in tackles with 46. Even with an experienced senior in Mike Maskalunas filling in, that’s a lot of firepower to not have on the field.
One of the areas of weakness on Notre Dame’s offense is its offensive line. Not only has the group given up 15 sacks through three games, the injuries they have been dealing with has delayed their chemistry building. UW's front will likely dial up the pressure and having Chenal back makes getting to the quarterback that much easier.
Vazquez: Jake touched on it earlier when touching on the passing offense, but I am confident Mellusi and the rushing attack can put together a good day and guide the offense against a spotty front seven for Notre Dame. Against a Florida State offense that ran the ball 65 percent of the time, the Fighting Irish gave up 264 yards on the ground to the rate of 5.5 yards per carry. While the unit has been better against the run in the past two games, Toledo’s Bryant Koback still tallied 114 yards on 20 carries.
On the flip side, Wisconsin’s rushing attack, specifically Mellusi, has gotten off to a fast start in 2021. Mellusi totaled 121 yards in the opener against Penn State and followed that up by passing the 100-yard mark with 4:39 left in the first quarter against Eastern Michigan. Jalen Berger didn’t play a snap against Penn State, but the distribution against Eastern Michigan was more of what was expected with Mellusi getting the bulk of the work. Albeit against a lesser opponent, UW’s offensive line played much better in week two than they did against the Nittany Lions.
CONCERNED
Kocorowski: This may be the first time I say I’m really concerned about something with Wisconsin, and that’s its red zone offense entering Saturday’s game. UW now ranks 128th in the nation in converting just 5-of-10 chances inside the 20-yard line.
The Badgers improved against Eastern Michigan in the red zone with scoring on 4-of-6 chances, but a 4th down stop at the EMU one-yard-line on the first drive of the game, coupled with a short-armed pick six thrown by quarterback Chase Wolf nullified more opportunities for points on the board.
Wisconsin absolutely cannot waste opportunities in this area against Notre Dame’s defense, led by All-American safety Kyle Hamilton, like it did against now-No. 6 Penn State. The Badgers only scored points on 1-of-4 possessions inside the 20 against the Nittany Lions, and a repeat or similar performance against the Fighting Irish could once again cost them a game they should have won.
Worgull: Wisconsin fans know what Coan brings to the table, which is why this should be nerve-racking for them because he’s smart enough to know how to beat the Badgers defense. Starting 18 games for Wisconsin and having led the Badgers to the Rose Bowl with his accuracy, poise, leadership and command of the offense, Coan has carried a lot of those same traits over to South Bend. In three games, Coan has completed 62.7 percent of his passes (62 of 99) for 828 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions. I am sure there aren’t too many of his former defensive teammates who were surprised when Coan dislocated a finger on his throwing hand, ran over to the sideline to get it popped back into place and throw the game-winning touchdown on his next pass.
Making Coan more dangerous is that he has weapons at running back, tight end and receiver to help elevate the pressure he’s been facing from a patchwork offensive line. It’s Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame, even Chryst and Coan made that point clear in the last several days, but the Badgers effectively showing Coan the door to make way for Mertz will be a storyline and, for a competitor like Coan, should be a lot of motivation.
Vazquez: It has to be the passing attack, more specifically, the vertical passing attack. In a contest that you have to believe will be hard fought and close, it’s tough to imagine Chryst will be able to lean on Mellusi, Berger and the linemen up front to a win. During the opening matchup against Penn State, a pair of late potential go-ahead drives ended with Mertz throwing picks.
Maybe even more concerning than the actual results, is the fact that the coaching staff hasn’t really looked to stretch the field. Mertz’s longest completion this season is still a 23-yard connection to wide receiver Danny Davis against the Nittany Lions. If the Badgers are down multiple possessions at any point or are in need of a score at the end of the game, it’ll be the first time this season they have to take the top off a defense.