The No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers have a bye this week, but there are still a few things to keep an eye on - both in Madison and around the conference - as UW gears up to start their Big Ten schedule next weekend against Northwestern.
1. The Badgers are ranked ahead of Ohio State in the AP Poll for the first time since 2014
The media poll dropped the Buckeyes to No. 10 after their win over Army last weekend, with the Badgers moving up to No. 9 after their win over BYU. The last time UW was ranked ahead of Ohio State in the AP poll was after week five of the 2014 season - the Badgers were coming off of a 27-10 win over South Florida, but would lose to Northwestern on the road the following week. The Buckeyes have been ranked ahead of the Badgers in the AP Poll every week since then - the rest of 2014, which they capped off with a national championship, and all of 2015 and 2016. Take the media polls for what they're worth (not much) but a week with the Badgers ranked ahead of Ohio State is far from a regular occurrence.
2. Alex Hornibrook owns the Big Ten's top passer rating through three games
True, having a career-game in a small sample size skews that a little bit. But Hornibrook's 18-for-19, four-touchdown day against BYU last weekend has vaulted him ahead of Penn State's Trace McSorley for the top passer rating in the Big Ten (188.98). There's sure to be some regression as Hornibrook moves in to the conference season and faces tougher defenses, but it does look to me like he's taken a step forward since getting the job on a full-time basis. It will be interesting to see where he ends up ranking in the conference at the end of the season.
3. Wisconsin's schedule only gets harder from here
I'm not shy about being someone who keeps an eye on football analytics, and I think the work that sites like FootballOutsiders.com and others do is a good complement to the eye test when evaluating teams.
That said, here's where the teams on Wisconsin's 2017 schedule rank on FO's S&P+ metric, which is basically an opponent-adjusted look at a team's offensive and defensive efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. I put the teams the Badgers (who are ranked No. 8 in the S&P+) have already played in bold:
Michigan - No. 11
Iowa - No. 42
Northwestern - No. 43
Nebraska - No. 44
Minnesota - No. 48
Indiana - No. 53
Maryland - No. 63
Purdue - No. 71
UTAH STATE - No. 80
BYU - No. 85
FLORIDA ATLANTIC - No. 88
Illinois - No. 90
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You can see that S&P+ thinks that UW's game against Michigan is their one clear top-tier opponent, and then you have three tiers below them: Iowa, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Minnesota in tier two, Indiana, Maryland, and Purdue in tier three, and Illinois in the bottom tier with Wisconsin's non-conference opponents.
Now what does that tell us? Personally I think the metric over-rates Nebraska and under-rates Purdue, but basically the Badgers are going to need to perform well against a Big Ten schedule full of teams that are bunched close together in advanced stats rankings. We're used to seeing teams like Purdue and Maryland near the bottom of the rankings with UW's non-conference opponents, too, so we'll have to see if the Boilermakers and the Terrapins can sustain their impressive starts and give the Badgers more of a fight than they have in the past when they play them this year.
4. Two games I'll be watching with the Badgers not playing this weekend
No. 4 Penn State goes on the road to play Iowa this weekend, and No. 8 Michigan will also go on the road to play Purdue. I'll probably keep a closer eye on the Michigan-Purdue matchup because the Badgers play both of them this year, and because this will be Purdue's first big test against a top-ranked team under new head coach Jeff Brohm. If the Boilermakers can put up points and make the Wolverines work for a road win, that will be pretty impressive, and it should give Purdue fans hope for the long-term future of their program.
