Published Feb 21, 2025
Wisconsin Keeping Turnovers Down as Tempo Increases
Benjamin Worgull  •  BadgerBlitz
Senior Writer
Twitter
@TheBadgerNation

MADISON, Wis. – Being one of the nation’s best teams in limiting their turnovers is nothing new for Wisconsin. The Badgers have committed 10 or fewer turnovers per game for six straight seasons and finished first or second nationally from 2021 to 2023. So, the fact that Wisconsin is once again stingy with the ball isn’t incredibly newsworthy.

However, the Badgers are playing faster and gaining more possessions. They have built their NCAA Tournament profile with significant wins and minimal miscues. In Quad-1 victories at Purdue and Illinois, Wisconsin totaled only 13 turnovers, which cost them 18 points. UW has averaged 1.54 and 1.36 points per possession in those two games, respectively.

Tempo and possessions are up, but Wisconsin (21-5, 11-4 Big Ten) has stuck to its core principles of high-percentage shots, getting to the free-throw line, and not giving away possessions.

“Before every game, an emphasis that Coach Gard, it’s either the first or second thing he says, don’t turn the ball over,” guard Jack Janicki said. “In the last two games particularly, we’ve done such a good job of staying within our structure, which already allows for a lot of creativity, and in that it also takes away some turnovers that are presented. It makes us really hard when we get so many possessions that end in shots.”

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Last season was a test to see how Wisconsin's modernized offense would impact its turnover margin. The Badgers increased their average possessions per game by just under two, but they still finished at 9.9 turnovers per game, ranking 33rd nationally.

Through 26 games entering tomorrow morning’s home game against Oregon (19-8, 8-8), Wisconsin is averaging 1.9 more possessions per game at 70.4 (its fastest pace in at least 30 years) but brought its turnover-per-game average down to 9.8 per game to rank 23rd nationally.

Since committing 13 in a two-point loss at UCLA, the Badgers have had 10 or fewer turnovers in the past seven games. UW also ranks 20th at 13.9 turnovers per possession, a reason why its offense has been so efficient.

“I don’t want guys playing tight where they are worried about turning the ball over,” said head coach Greg Gard, who said Wisconsin shoots for a turnover-per-possession percentage of between 10 and 13 percent per game. “I want them to be aggressive. When you start playing more instinctively and naturally, you actually have less turnovers than if you play wound tight and worried about making a mistake and worried about looking over your shoulder all the time.”

Five of UW’s 13 turnovers in the last two games happened in the opening six-plus minutes, with 11 of the 13 occurring in the first half. In the six games, UW has averaged 6.2 turnovers before halftime and only 1.8 after.

Film review shows Wisconsin players have been trying to force offense at the beginning of games and failed to distort the defense, leading to defenders loading gaps and shutting down back-side angle to the rim.

According to Gard, it’s a fine line between staying patient and being aggressive that the Badgers have done better with as games develop.

“Sometimes it is a culminations effect of what an offense can do if we keep coming with the thrust,” Gard said. “We call it an avalanche approach, what that impact has over 40 minutes. Offense typically gets a little easier.”

“When we get ourselves in trouble, we’re trying to drive through too many bodies and too many hands, and it’s usually early in a possession. If I freeze the film and look at the shot clock, it’s at 22 or 23 (seconds). Look how many opposing jerseys are staring at the ball or loaded toward the ball.”

Minimizing turnovers has helped Wisconsin maintain its offensive efficiency when its robust scoring wasn’t there.

Wisconsin has reached 80 points in 13 of its first 20 games, most since the 1970-71 team scored at least 80 in a game on 15 occasions. Between knocking off Nebraska on Jan.26 and winning at Iowa on February 8, the Badgers fell short of a number they have made look relatively routine while keeping their respectable points per possession average (ppp).

In the three games before Purdue, Wisconsin averaged between 1.138 and 1.172 ppp. Even the 11-point loss at Maryland, when Wisconsin’s 68 points were its fewest since its December 3 loss to Michigan, saw the Badgers finish at 1.03, a product of going 9-for-27 on threes and 15-for-21 from the line.

Wisconsin has 10 turnovers against Maryland and Northwestern, six against Indiana, and nine at Iowa.

Wisconsin’s targeted points per possession number varies from game to game based on what it receives from an analytic company it uses. It's a goal computer calculated based on a projected number of possessions.

What doesn’t change is UW’s targeted turnover number of zero, which would really help the Badgers pass their efficiency test.

“Shot selection has been good and shot selection usually improves as the ball movement improves,” Gard said. “They are tied to each other … Our goal of what we analytically get on paper. I’ve seen it as high as 1.17 as a goal based on what an opponent’s strengths and weaknesses are … If we can be in that 1.1-1.15 range, unless we are Swiss cheese defensively, we are typically in a good position.”

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