After wrapping up their non-conference schedule last weekend, the No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers jump back into Big Ten play with a cross-divisional clash against the Michigan State Spartans on Homecoming weekend.
Michigan State (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten) comes off a 34-10 loss on the road to now-No. 3 Ohio State. Now the Spartans will travel to Madison to take on the Badgers.
Check out some key stats and our Q&A team preview with Paul Konyndyk from Rivals.com's SpartanMag.
KEY 2019 TEAM STATS
*Record: 4-2 overall, 2-1 Big Ten
*Points per game: 27.8
*Opponents points per game: 18.2
*Rushing yards per game: 131.7
*Opponents rushing yards per game: 100.3
*Passing yards per game: 260.5
*Opponents' passing yards per game: 199.3
*Third-down conversions: 43%
*Opponents' third-down conversions: 38%
*Total turnovers created: 12 (seven interceptions, five fumble recoveries)
*Total turnovers given up: 7 (two interceptions, five fumbles lost)
NAMES TO KNOW: OFFENSE
*Quarterback Brian Lewerke: 58.5 completion percentage, 1,543 yards, 11 touchdowns, two interceptions; 45 carries, 143 yards
*Running back Elijah Collins: 90 carries, 476 yards, 5.3 yards per carry, three touchdowns
*Wide receiver Darrell Stewart Jr.: 41 receptions, 624 yards, four touchdowns
*Wide receiver Cody White: 24 receptions, 299 yards, two touchdowns
*Tight end Matt Seybert: 13 receptions, 170 yards, three touchdowns
NAMES TO KNOW: DEFENSE
*Linebacker Joe Bachie: 57 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, one interception, four pass breakups; three quarterback hurries
*Defensive lineman Kenny Willekes: 41 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, four sacks, 11 quarterback hurries, two fumble recoveries
*Linebacker Antjuan Simmons: 40 tackles, eight tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, one interception
*Cornerback Josiah Scott: 34 tackles, two interceptions, four pass breakups
*Defensive lineman Raequan Williams: 22 tackles, five tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks
*Defensive lineman Mike Panasiuk: 16 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, one sack
*Defensive lineman Jacub Panasiuk: 15 tackles, five tackles for loss, two sacks
1. Michigan State comes into Camp Randall Stadium this week with a 4-2 record and after giving up 34 points in a rough road environment in Columbus. What have been the general impressions of the team through the first half of the regular season?
Michigan State did some good things on both sides of the ball in 34-10 loss to an Ohio State team playing as well as any team in the country. Ultimately, Michigan State was done in by a second quarter in which the Buckeyes scored 24 points. Missed opportunities by the offense – a poor throw by Brian Lewerke on a scramble that should have been a touchdown to Cody White and a dropped pass by Darrell Stewart on another potential scoring play – prevented Michigan State from scoring more points and keeping the game interesting. Defensively, the Spartans were burned by a rare blown coverage as well as a couple of instances of players going for strips before securing tackles.
As a team, Michigan State is probably in that seven, eight or nine-win range. The Spartans have a very good defense and an improving offense in comparison to last season.
Offensively, Lewerke is healthy and playing well as a senior behind a patchwork offensive line. Redshirt freshman Elijah Collins has established himself as the feature back in Michigan State’s offense and he has been effective in that role thus far, which is why older tailbacks like Connor Heyward and LaDarius Jefferson have put their names into the NCAA transfer portal in recent weeks. Tight end play has been better than expected with former walk-on Matt Seybert and physically-gifted junior Matt Dotson getting most of the reps along with rising youngster Trenton Gillison. Michigan State has a solid, not spectacular receiving corps. Stewart is putting up big numbers, but he doesn’t strike me as that elite top of the rotation wide receiver that Michigan State has had in years past with guys like Felton Davis, BJ Cunningham, Tony Lippett, Devin Thomas, or Aaron Burbridge among others.
Defensively, the Spartans are very good with their starting 11. There are NFL guys all over the d-line, and all-conference caliber playmakers at linebacker and in the defensive backfield. Michigan State has an elite d-end in Kenny Willekes, and a much-improved bookend in Jacub Panasiuk. D-tackles Raequan Williams and Mike Panasiuk have started 34 straight games and they are as good as any tandem in the Big Ten. Josiah Scott is a lock-down corner and David Dowell is free safety with tremendous experience. Depth, however, is a bit of concern for this defense. There have been a handful of injuries that have hurt Michigan State’s production in their nickel defense in comparison to a year ago.
Mentally, this team went down to Columbus knowing that they’d have to play a perfect game to beat Ohio State. They expected to do so, but came up short. If they were playing a lesser team than Wisconsin, I’d be worried about a letdown, as this Michigan State team believed that they had the pieces to play for a Big Ten title. Losing to Ohio State pretty much guarantees that won’t happen. One of the hallmarks, however, of Mark Dantonio-coached teams is the ability to bounce back from disappointment and continue to scrap and claw. Playing Wisconsin gives the Spartans a chance to prove their resilience and I expect this team play with a chip on its shoulder this weekend.
2. We always ask about injuries. Who's out, who's back, who's iffy, and what could be the impact for this weekend's cross-divisional matchup?
Injury-wise, the biggest issue for Michigan State this season has been at left tackle. The Spartans have cycled through a bunch of left tackles, losing starter Cole Chewins and back-up A.J. Arcuri during training camp, and Kevin Jarvis the following week. Jarvis had been a starting guard prior to Arcuri’s injury. Current starter, Tyler Higby, is also a converted guard. He is a veteran o-lineman with a lot of starting experience, but he is playing out of position. Higby has done better than I expected at tackle, but it’s not an ideal situation at a position of key significance. Jarvis and Arcuri could come back at some point this season, but will not play this weekend against Wisconsin. Michigan State has also had some additional injuries on the o-line. Utility interior o-lineman Blake Bueter has been dinged up some in recent weeks.
Matt Dotson began the season at as Michigan State’s tight end before suffering a minor injury in practice that prevented him from playing in the Big Ten opener against Northwestern. Dotson has steadily seen his game reps increase since returning to the field a couple of weeks ago. He isn’t playing as many snaps as he did in the first two games.
Both starting defensive tackle Mike Panasiuk and starting defensive end Jacub Panasiuk left last weekend’s game with minor injuries. I don’t expect Mike Panasiuk, a senior, to miss any time this weekend. He is listed at the top of Michigan State’s depth chart heading in to this game. The same holds true for his younger brother. If Jacub Panasiuk were to miss this game, veteran back-up Drew Beesley would likely play the bulk of the snaps at boundary defensive end. Beesley, a former walk-on described by Michigan State d-coordinator Mike Tressel as a third starter, is playing 20-plus snaps per game as a productive back-up. Physically gifted back-up Jack Camper could play a significant amount of snaps at d-end this weekend. Camper is a promising pass-rusher that began the season dinged up and has been working his way back into the rotation since returning from injury two weekends ago. If Camper’s on the field, I’d expect Wisconsin to run the ball at him.
Josh Butler is listed as the starter at corner going into this game, but redshirt freshman Kalon Gervin started for Michigan State at Ohio State last weekend. Butler has struggled this year and there is some uncertainty as to whether Gervin’s ascension has to do with performance or an injury to Butler. Sophomore Shakur Brown would almost certainly be in the mix for a starting job if he weren’t dinged up. Brown is listed on the depth chart this week, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll play this weekend.
3. The offense appears potent with a quarterback (Lewerke) averaging nearly 260 yards per game, a running back (Collins) gaining over five yards per carry and a wide receiver (Darrell Stewart, Jr.) that has over 40 catches and 600 yards through six games. However, the offense has scored less than four touchdowns per game. What has the unit done well so far, but where can there be improvements?
The offense is a work in progress under first-year offensive coordinator Brad Salem. We’ve seen some strong performances from the group in games against Northwestern, Indiana, and Western Michigan, and there have also been some clunkers. The opener against Tulsa and a home loss to Arizona State were both forgettable performances.
The one constant for Michigan State has been the play of senior quarterback Brian Lewerke. He has been effective and efficient leading a Spartan offense that lacks a superstar talent in the mold of a Le’Veon Bell. Stewart has put up impressive numbers through six games, but he isn’t the workhorse that the Spartans have had in the past like Felton Davis was last season before his injury or Aaron Burbridge, Tony Lippett, and BJ Cunningham were as seniors. Those guys made big plays to win games. Stewart doesn’t have the clutch-factor his predecessor’s did. When I think back to the teams that Michigan State had when the Spartans were just getting things cranked up and starting to compete for Big Ten championships under Dantonio, they didn’t have the defenses that they have today, but they did have NFL caliber quarterbacks, receivers and tailbacks.
I think there’s a chance that Collins develops into a NFL-caliber tailback and emerges as a household name in the Big Ten over time. He is a guy that can make something positive out of a poorly blocked play, and that is something the Spartans lacked at tailback until his emergence. The Spartans have another quality young running back behind Collins in Chicagoan Anthony Williams, a freshman with big-play potential.
Michigan State is solid at wide receiver with Stewart and Cody White as a 1-2 punch for Lewerke. Both players have had too many drops this season and White has had issues with ball security. For Michigan State to finish more drives instead of moving the ball and stalling out, White is the guy that needs to step up and play at a higher level. The Spartans are also looking for a No. 3 receiver to emerge. Sophomore CJ Hayes has shown flashes of being that guy, but has also had issues with dropped passes. Julian Barnett is a freshman with a bunch of upside and big-play potential. His impact at receiver, however, has been limited to this point.
Tight end Matt Seybert has been a reliable target for Lewerke. Seybert, a former walk-on who transferred from Buffalo a few years back, has been a consistent cog in the Spartan offense. Look for Seybert and junior Matt Dotson to get a lot of work on Saturday. Dotson had been the starter at tight end before he suffered an injury prior to the Big Ten opener.
For Michigan State to be effective on offense in this game, the Spartans must have an effective running game. That doesn’t mean that they have to put up 200 yards, because that isn’t going to happen against this Wisconsin defense. But I just don’t see Michigan State being able stick with Wisconsin if they are one-dimensional on offense. Collins needs to be effective running the football, and the Spartans need to get ground production out of Lewerke.
4. The Spartans' defense has given up more than 30 points per game in the past two contests, yet overall have held opponents under 300 total yards per contest and forced 12 turnovers. Of course, there are linebackers Joe Bachie and Antjuan Simmons, along with defensive lineman Kenny Willekes. Who else could give Wisconsin trouble on Saturday?
What Michigan State has given up on defense in each of the past two weekends really has no bearing on this weekend because what they’ll face from Wisconsin is entirely different than what they saw from Indiana and Ohio State. Indiana nickel and dimed Michigan State to death with bubble screens. The Buckeyes beat Michigan State with big plays. Ohio State has so many explosive skill players, and big plays are bound to happen. The Spartans gave up far more than they’d hoped to against Ohio State.
This game is more of test your manhood game for the front seven of the Michigan State defense. The d-line is built to stop the run and the Spartans have thumpers at the linebacker position with Joe Bachie, Tyriq Thompson, and Antjuan Simmons, so I’m sure that the entire defense is eager to test itself against the Wisconsin offense.
Going all the way back to Big Ten Media Days, this is a game that Michigan State defensive players have been looking to as a measuring stick game. The Spartans had nation’s best run defense last season, and facing a team that is as good at running the football as Wisconsin is something the entire defense has been looking forward to. These guys want to know if they can stop the run to the extent that Wisconsin is forced to throw the football to beat them.
The Wisconsin ground game against Michigan State’s run defense is one of the best storylines leading up to this game. That said, if the Michigan State offense is unable to put points on the board in this game, I think you might see a scenario where the defense wears down and things snowball in favor of the Badgers in the fourth quarter.
Michigan State’s d-line is more than Kenny Willekes. Raequan Williams and Mike Panasiuk are future NFL guys that have started alongside one another for the past three seasons. But they’ve also got some help inside from quality back-ups in Naquan Jones and Jacob Slade. Jones is an All-Big Ten caliber tackle in waiting, and Slade has played pretty at a high level in his first year as a regular rotation guy. Michigan State has less depth at the linebacker position than it did a year ago when they had a productive back-ups coming off the bench at every position. But this is a game where it helps to have sturdy backers and the Spartans have that with Bache, Thompson, and Simmons.
5. Where do you feel Michigan State could have an advantage over Wisconsin, and vice versa, how could the Badgers give the Spartans fits?
I don’t see too many areas where Michigan State has an advantage over Wisconsin, to be perfectly honest. I do think the Spartans have an edge at quarterback, however, and this is a game where that matters quite a bit. Lewerke has been able to lead Michigan State to victory in one-dimensional football games where running the ball is difficult. His prospect of doing so in this game seem unlikely, but games between these two teams have been dramatic over the years. So why not another classic?
If Wisconsin is able to run the football effectively, there’ll be opportunities for some downfield passes off play-action and big-play potential for whomever is matched up against Josh Butler or Kalon Gervin. I’d feel better about Michigan State’s chances if I knew Shakur Brown were available at corner as he plays the deep ball pretty well.
Schematically, Michigan State gives up quite a bit of space in the middle of the field behind the linebackers and teams with quality tight ends have been able to exploit that against the Spartans. I’d expect Wisconsin to get plenty of production from the tight end position.
The biggest match-up to me is Michigan State’s d-line against Wisconsin’s o-line. The Spartans have been really good generating four-man pressure with the d-line and all of these guys excel against the run. The Spartans haven’t played a team this season that beat them physically at the line of scrimmage. Then again, they haven’t played a team with an o-line like Wisconsin’s. I think Michigan State’s d-line will come out of the gate with a lot of determination and physicality, so it will be up to Wisconsin to grind away and take advantage of big-play opportunities when they arise.
6. What's your game prediction, and why?
I feel like Michigan State’s defense matches up with Wisconsin’s offense much better than they matched up with Ohio State’s offense last weekend. Justin Fields is such an explosive running threat. The Spartans will not have to contend with that this weekend.
The Spartans will, however, be bludgeoned over and over again by methodical and physical offense that will grind even the best defenses down over the course of four quarters.
I think it’s possible for Michigan State to win this football game. The Spartans have a better quarterback, running game, and skill players than Northwestern did, and the Wildcats gave Wisconsin all it could handle. I say that, however, acknowledging that Northwestern has more success against some teams than others. For Michigan State to do what Northwestern couldn’t this season, the Spartans need to have some semblance of a running game, and that seems somewhat unlikely.
I expect this game to be within a touchdown or 10 points going into the fourth quarter, but I can’t see Michigan State pulling off an upset without a defensive touchdown. I don’t think the Spartan offense will be good enough in this game to keep the defense fresh, and I expect Wisconsin to pull away in the fourth quarter.
Wisconsin 28, Michigan State 17