Madison — 325-160.
That’s the combined score of the last nine matchups between Ohio State and Wisconsin, all wins for the Buckeyes.
The Badgers haven’t only not won in 13 years, they rarely even come close.
Ohio State’s offenses consistently decimate Badger defenses, and this year could be another installment, especially if the Buckeyes exploit Wisconsin’s struggles against the run.
Run defense has been one of the major inconsistencies for the Badgers this season. Three weeks ago, they completely shut down Rutgers, then let Iowa and Illinois run for 423 yards combined.
Ohio State tends to lean on the pass, but it will enter Camp Randall knowing that if all else fails, it can run it down the Badgers’ throats.
Despite Wisconsin’s recent struggles, starting linebacker Jake Chaney feels confidence in their improvement.
“I think it [run defense] was a struggle in the beginning,” Chaney said. “We didn’t expect to be hit in the mouth like that, but we’re making steps and strides in the right direction.”
They’ll enter Saturday with some extra confidence, coming off of perhaps their best win all season against the Illini. The Badgers came back from down multiple scores and stole a late win, scoring 18 points in the fourth quarter.
Such an impressive win could’ve created complacency, but Wisconsin is aware that they have bigger fish to fry.
“In all honesty, wins mean a lot, but they’re not as celebrated as you think they would be,” Chaney said. “I’m not trying to put down our win or anything, but winning’s the standard.”
The Badgers defense will gear up for an offense that may not seem as scary as the Ohio State offenses of recent years, but are still capable of making Saturday ugly.
They lost a few key members of last year’s Buckeye team that beat Wisconsin, 52-21. Three Buckeyes were drafted in the first round alone of the most recent NFL Draft, but they’ll roll out a new litany of future pros.
Ohio State’s best player this year is receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who’s all-but-certain to go near the top of next year’s NFL Draft. He’ll be the absolute priority for Mike Tressel, as he is for every defensive coordinator.
Ohio State has never run their offense through a receiver like this. Harrison Jr. not only one of the best players in the nation, he’s among the most valuable.
“Maybe they’re a little bit more of a pass-first team, they want to air it out, that’s what they want to do,” Chaney said. “But they have the guys to run the ball, and with offenses, if you can’t stop the run, they’re gonna run the ball.”
Such an overwhelming amount of attention on Harrison could lead to an oversight on Ohio State’s run game, and especially tailback TreVeyon Henderson.
After missing the past few games with an undisclosed injury, coach Ryan Day on his radio show said Henderson was a “full-go” for Saturday.
He played in the first four games of the season, rushing for 295 yards on 6.7 per carry and five touchdowns. Henderson even played his best game right before going down, finishing with 104 yards and a touchdown against Notre Dame.
Ohio State will especially welcome Henderson back to the lineup after failing to find a competent replacement in his absence.
A different Buckeye led the team in rushing in all three games that he was out, which is just one indication of how far the run game fell after the injury.
They averaged 149 rushing yards per game in the first four weeks with a healthy group, then 97.6 in the last three games.
The return of Henderson means the backups can return to their better-fitting roles as situational and change-of-pace tailbacks.
Expect Day to lean on the run more than he has in weeks.
“You can’t just focus on one person when they have a great stable of backs,” Chaney said.
Ohio State will obviously try to win through the air, but Wisconsin knows that Saturday could be a long day if they let the Buckeyes establish a presence on the ground.
“If they run the ball a few times and they’re making progress, what’s stopping them from running it more?” Chaney said.
Regardless of last year’s blowout, and Ohio State’s constant reputation as a juggernaut, Saturday is the best chance at a Badger win over the Buckeyes in years. There will, however, be absolutely no chance if the Badgers let Ohio State maintain their usual offensive dominance. And that starts with stopping the run.
“You stop the run first. As a linebacker, that’s your mentality and you move on from there,” Maema Njongmeta said.
Analysts, sports books and even certain fans think that Saturday will be a blowout. History suggests that they may be correct. But Wisconsin’s defense doesn’t see the Buckeyes as some indestructible juggernaut.
“They can beat you in many ways, but they’re not unbeatable,” Chaney said.
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