Published Sep 25, 2024
Wisconsin Badgers 3-2-1: UW eyes bounce-back win over Trojans
Seamus Rohrer  •  BadgerBlitz
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BadgerBlitz.com brings you our weekly "3-2-1" feature of the 2024 season, where we take a look at three things we learned from Week 3 and the bye week, two remaining questions and one bold prediction for when the the Badgers travel to Los Angeles.

THREE THINGS WE LEARNED FROM ALABAMA, BYE WEEK

1. Wisconsin has a quarterback problem on its hands

After Tyler Van Dyke went down on the Badgers' first drive against Alabama, Braedyn Locke found himself in a familiar situation: thrust into action against a daunting defense after an injury to Wisconsin's starter. Last year, he was thrown into the Iowa game at halftime and he completed half his passes for 122 yards, no touchdowns and one interception while averaging 4.1 yards-per-attempt. Against the Crimson Tide, his stat-line was eerily similar: 50 percent completion, 125 yards and one touchdown on 4.8 yards-per-attempt.

It's not easy to get tossed into any game cold off the bench, let alone games against vicious defenses like Iowa or Alabama. Still, Locke's play left plenty to be desired from a fundamental standpoint, and that's concerning considering fundamentals are what's gotten him where he is today.

Locke somewhat settled down after his first drive or so, but his accuracy and timing fluctuated all afternoon. He kept the ball out of harms way, and mostly made good decisions save for holding the ball in the pocket too long. Still, it wasn't a performance that backed up the coaching staff's assertion that they have a "1A" and "1B" at quarterback.

“A lot of his experiences give him, me, and a lot of the guys around him a lot more confidence because he was thrust into some really tough situations last year. And so all those things kind of work together. I think that it also gives you a better idea of what you need to do, how you need to adjust, because of the strengths that he has," head coach Luke Fickell said of Locke.

“But more than anything, it comes down to him. It comes down to him having those experiences of playing, getting thrust into an Iowa game, and then going to play against Ohio State, and preparing the way that he had to prepare to play. It puts him right back into that position.”

It'll be fascinating to see how Locke plays coming off a bye week and a full weeks' worth of preparation as the starter. Once again, an injury to a quarterback that beat him for the starting job has given Locke the reins to this offense. The first time around was messy; can Locke write a better chapter two?

Wisconsin's quarterback problem is also twofold, as the Badgers are now one play away from having to trot out true freshman Mabrey Mettauer as their starter. Fickell mentioned that his reps with the third team offense this spring and fall were immensely valuable, but if a situation arises in which Mettauer is Wisconsin's best option under center, it would be time to panic.

2. This defense is nowhere close to where it needs to be

Wisconsin's defense wasn't tested all that much against Western Michigan and South Dakota. That all changed in Week 3; there's no test quite like the Crimson Tide. And it was a test the Badgers unquestionably failed.

Wisconsin had no answer for the electrifying Jalen Milroe. He carved the Badgers up with both his arm and legs. Wisconsin made a stop here and there, but Alabama's offense bullied Wisconsin in a way it's not accustomed to. Not only did the Tide stack big play after big play, but it looked effortless doing so. Jam Miller went untouched on his 34-yard touchdown scamper. Ryan Williams' 31-yard touchdown was an unambiguous go-route, where the true freshman receiver simply ran right past RJ Delancy.

Coming into the contest, the concern on the Badgers' defense was its ability to stop the run. Three touchdowns, 181 yards and 5.3 yards-per-carry later, those concerns were justified. Milroe finished as the leading rusher and his legs — and sometimes just the threat they posed alone — were too much for Wisconsin to contain. In terms of sheer dual-threat ability, the Badgers won't see another quarterback like Milroe all year. Nonetheless, the continued inability to stop the run is alarming.

Despite the ailing run defense, Wisconsin's secondary was considered a strength after two weeks. Then it faced a legitimate passing offense. Not only did the Badgers allow Alabama to pass for 226 yards with ease, they were were highly susceptible to the big play. That resulted in touchdowns of 37, 31 and 26 yards through the air, with the later score set up by a 47-yard pass.

After its defense got taken out behind the woodshed by the Tide, Wisconsin now must face a Lincoln Riley-coached offense on the road. Rapid improvement will be needed to keep this game close.

3. Locke's chemistry with Will Pauling will be vital

Slot receiver Will Pauling was one of the few bright spots against the Tide, and quite honestly one of the few players that looked like he could match up with Alabama's personnel. He's flew under the radar through two games despite being Wisconsin's leading receiver because the passing game had been quiet, but he reminded the Badger faithful just how special he can be.

Pauling's nine catches for 83 yards and a score aren't a generational stat-line, but it was less so the numbers and more about Pauling's obvious chemistry with Locke. The two had a nice rapport in 2023, and they picked up where they left off against the Tide. The Badgers' passing game needs something, anything to hang its hat on and perhaps kickstart it into a higher gear. The Locke-to-Pauling connection could be a good starting point.

With a backup quarterback and repeated un-inspiring play from its outside receivers, expect Wisconsin to try to lean on its running game while Locke settles into his starting role. Fickell knows his tailbacks and offensive line are the strongest positions on his offense. Still, Pauling's innate ability as a chains-mover and underneath separator will be crucial for this offense moving forward.

TWO REMAINING QUESTIONS HEADING INTO WEEK 2

1. Is this offense salvageable? 

A run-heavy offense that can't get push up front might be a struggling offense, but at least it knows what it is. A pass-happy attack with receivers that can't get open still knows it wants to push the ball downfield. Wisconsin's offense currently falls squarely in the middle, a unit that can't decide what it really is.

As mentioned, the strength of this unit from a personnel standpoint are its tailbacks and offensive line. Do the Badgers lean into that with a backup quarterback and try to form an identity as a downhill running team, or do they continue to operate under the guise of Phil Longo's "air raid?"

Fickell was asked about his relationship with Longo this week after some questions about the two coaches understandably arose. His answer was a long, rambling clinic in coach speak.

"What's meddling too much? I don't try to do that. I try to say, ‘Hey, we trust you. This is what we want. This is how we go about it,'" he offered as part of his response.

Ultimately, Wisconsin's offensive identity crisis is one of the primary reasons why this team has failed to take the next step. With a bye week to re-assess and self-scout, do things improve against USC?

2. Can Wisconsin's secondary bounce back? 

Wisconsin's struggles in all areas defensively against the Crimson Tide are well-documented. But perhaps the most concerning aspect was how easily Alabama carved up a Badgers' secondary that's supposedly littered with playmakers.

We've mentioned how the transfer corner Delancy got torched for an easy touchdown, but it was an especially poor day for Ricardo Hallman, Wisconsin's supposed top cornerback. He allowed four catches, including the 26-yard touchdown to Germie Bernard right before halftime, and he also missed a staggering four tackles.

Now, a cornerback that's never beat is a cornerback that never plays, but with another high-flying offense awaiting the Badgers in Los Angeles, the play of the secondary now becomes an addition to the ever-growing list of legitimate concerns with this team. Wisconsin simply can't allow USC to pick up chunk plays with regularity.

Do the Badgers look to shake up their personnel? True freshman Xavier Lucas has been nothing short out outstanding when he's been on the field, but he saw just seven snaps against Alabama.

"What stood out — the stage clearly wasn't too big at all. He could handle everything that was thrown at him, whether it's the crowd or the Division-I talent or whatever it is. And he's shown he can make plays on the football. You can coach your tail off on technique, balance, but sometimes just simply the ability to play the football is, yeah, it's something you can prove, but either you have it or you don't. He has the ability to play the football. He's a calm kid, and I do not believe any stage this year will be too big for him,” defensive coordinator Mike Tressel said of his young corner.

ONE BOLD PREDICTION

Wisconsin produces its highest rushing output of the season against the Trojans

The Badgers rushing output has steadily declined this season, from 196 yards in the opener, to 171 against South Dakota to 149 against Alabama. I'd expect a spike in those numbers this week for several reasons.

We've talked extensively about Wisconsin's offensive identity crisis. We've also repeatedly mentioned how the offensive linemen and tailbacks are the strength of this offense, something Fickell has acknowledged himself. That screams the Badgers plan on doubling down on the running game.

What's more, USC got gashed by Michigan last week on the ground. Now, the Wolverines were painfully unable to throw the football, but they exposed an important flaw — the Trojans' line-of-scrimmage play may not be up to par with the more physical programs in the Big Ten, and that's exactly what Fickell wants to be. Michigan ran for a staggering 290 yards on USC. This Badgers' offensive line should be licking its chops.

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