BadgerBlitz.com's weekly feature, "The 3 Cs," returns for the 2024 season. The staff takes a look at one thing we're curious, confident and concerned about heading into Wisconsin's Week 10 showdown with Iowa.
Staff writers Seamus Rohrer and Donnie Slusher each give their thoughts on the aforementioned topics for this week's contest.
CURIOUS
ROHRER: I'm curious as to how Brendan Sullivan operates Iowa's offense.
Sullivan spent two seasons at Northwestern before transferring to Iowa. During those two years, he tossed for 1,303 yards, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions while completing 68 percent of his passes. He was never quite given full command of the offense, however, starting a handful of games in Evanston before being relegated to the bench at the end of the 2023 season.
He's been utilized sparingly thus far in Iowa City, particularly in the red zone when starter Cade McNamara struggled to finish drives. Last week, he replaced McNamara and threw for 79 yards on 9 of 14 passing, adding 41 yards and a score on the ground.
McNamara never scared anyone as a passer, and I'd be shocked if Sullivan's arm struck fear into any defensive coordinator either. But Sullivan's legs are another story. He's not a true dual-threat in the sense that he'll rack up rushing yards, but he does provide an element of escapability. While McNamara was essentially a sitting duck in the pocket, Sullivan can extend plays. It'll be interesting to see how he's used Saturday night.
SLUSHER: On a similar note, I’m curious to see how much pressure defensive coordinator Mike Tressel sends at Sullivan.
When quarterback Beau Pribula entered last week for the injured Drew Allar, the Badger defense was left confused.
They talked afterwards about how they still prepared for Pribula, but you couldn’t really tell that by watching the game. Once he began to run, Penn State’s entire offense opened up.
Tressel didn’t want to send any pressure at an inexperienced quarterback, for some reason, and Pribula took full advantage.
There’s an inherent risk in pressuring a mobile quarterback, because it takes away the reinforcements if they break free. But the Badgers have shown that they struggle to rush the passer if they only send four, especially against a strong offensive line.
If Wisconsin can’t get home with four rushers, Sullivan will be able to both run and pass as he pleases, just like Pribula did.
Sending pressure would be a gamble. But allowing a frisky quarterback to do whatever he wants is almost a bigger risk.
CONFIDENT
ROHRER: I'm confident that this will be an absolute slugfest, harking back to the good ole' days of the Big Ten West.
This feels like a complete cop-out, and it probably is. But truthfully, there's not a whole lot else I'm confident with headed into Saturday night. But if there's one thing I can be certain of every time the Heartland Trophy is on the line, it's that the game will be defense-oriented, low-scoring and won in the trenches.
Last year's score of 15-6 epitomizes that perfectly. Neither team has hit 30 points in this series since 2017, a 38-17 Wisconsin victory in Madison. I'd be shocked if both teams hit 20 points.
You like offense? Look away. Competent quarterback play? Change the channel. The Big Ten West may be no longer, but its spirit will live on so long as Iowa and Wisconsin do battle every year.
SLUSHER: I’m confident that special teams will have a massive effect on the outcome of Saturday’s game.
For every reason Seamus listed, I believe we’re in for a rock fight. And we’ve seen, in these types of games, that they often come down to (1) starting field position and (2) a few made or missed field goals.
However, Iowa almost always has an advantage in this department. What’s different about this year’s matchup is that Wisconsin seems to have closed the gap, or at the very least, this is the closest it’s been in years.
Punter Atticus Bertrams was added to the watch list for the Ray Guy Award, given to the nation’s best punter, after the loss to Penn State.
It could’ve been a result of the improvised fake punt that led to a first down, but nonetheless, he’s playing the best football of his career. His five punts against the Nittany Lions traveled an average of 51.4 yards, and included a 63-yarder in the second quarter.
Kicker Nathanial Vakos nailed a 50-yard field goal against Penn State that was the fourth of his Badger career from at least that distance, breaking a school record.
On the other side, it must first be noted that the Hawkeyes lost one of their premier weapons over the offseason in punter Tory Taylor, who’s already arguably one of the best punters in the NFL.
His replacement, freshman Rhys Dakin, is another talented Aussie who’s done a solid job of filling Taylor’s shoes. He’s averaging 44.8 yards on 42 punts this season, including 20 that have landed inside the 20. Dakin’s not quite on Taylor’s level, but the position has remained a strength for their team.
They have the same kicker they’ve had for the past few years, the trusty Drew Stevens, who’s made 16-of-18 attempts this season, and will probably add a few more on Saturday.
Even if the game becomes defensive and boring, which is likely, fans can eagerly await the true stars of the day to make a difference.
CONCERNED
ROHRER: I'm concerned about Wisconsin's lack of juice on offense.
Again, this should be a very low-scoring affair. First to 17 wins? That might very well be the case. The Badgers struggled against Penn State's elite defense, and will now have to face another stout unit on the road in a hostile environment.
When the run game clicks, the possibilities abound for this offense. When Wisconsin throws the ball when it wants to, not when it has to, Phil Longo's scheme is highly effective. When the Badgers can run or pass interchangeably, Braedyn Locke looks like a completely different quarterback than when the running game is stifled.
But if Iowa can bottle up Tawee Walker and company, I have no reason to think that Wisconsin can move the ball with any sort of efficiency. With Locke throwing the ball to the other team and receivers dropping pass after pass against Penn State, the Badgers' pass game was nothing without its accompanying rushing attack. I'm worried that will be the case once again as Iowa looks to muddy up this game as much as possible.
SLUSHER: Similarly, I’m concerned by Wisconsin’s lack of trustworthy playmakers.
Who can the Badger offense truly depend on? Who can we actually feel confident in making a play? If the game turns into a slug fest, who can Longo turn to that will give them an easy first down?
Last season, it was running back Braelon Allen and wide receiver Will Pauling.
Allen’s gone, and his replacement, Walker, played three great games against poor opponents but has been a non-factor against anybody worth a damn.
Pauling has gone from the best and most reliable receiver on the team to a total coin flip guy. His eight drops this season lead the team and are double the next highest receiver (C.J. Williams), per Pro Football Focus.
The real problem is that nobody has stepped up in Pauling’s place.
Vinny Anthony leads the team in yards (382), but is pretty much restricted to go-routes. He’ll either catch a 50-yard touchdown or nothing. Bryson Green has missed the past few games, and even when healthy, is not a go-to receiver. Trech Kekahuna has shown promising flashes when he’s been given attention, but he and Pauling both playing in the slot has made it difficult for them to see the field simultaneously.
Ultimately, we know how this game will turn out. It’ll be the fourth quarter, with a single digit difference, and the Badger offense will be praying for someone to make a play. I don’t feel confident that anybody will.
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