MADISON, Wis. – The University of Wisconsin has hit a critical fork in the road in the eyes of junior point guard Chucky Hepburn.
In dropping a 91-83 decision to No.13 Illinois, costing the Badgers a chance to right the ship with a critical Quad-1 victory, Wisconsin (18-11, 10-8 Big Ten) is sliding down the Big Ten standings and NCAA Tournament seed list, not to mention looking like it will miss on a coveted double bye in this month’s conference tournament.
Hepburn can see his team going two ways with two regular-season games remaining before the postseason.
“We're in control of our own destiny,” Hepburn said. “We can go downhill from here or we can only go up from here. It's going to start from leadership up here — these three guys (me, Max Klesmit, and Tyler Wahl) and it's going to start with practice Monday. We’re going to come to practice working.
"If guys want to come and show up and compete, we're all there for it … We got to figure it out very quick or else, because like I said last postgame interview, it's going to be a quick March for us."
Here are my takeaways from the Kohl Center.
Wisconsin Gets Put In Tough Spots Defensively
Wisconsin's defense is far from elite, so taking on a challenge with an Illinois team that a) averages 84.5 points per game and dropped 105 on Minnesota Wednesday and b) has two talented scorers that hurt teams in different ways was not an ideal situation.
The Badgers went into the game planning to play smaller with four guards with Illinois not starting a true big and only using Dain Dainja off the bench less than 10 minutes per game. But the plan was skewed when UW – again – had to deal with players being forced to sit with foul trouble.
“Having the guys in foul trouble and other guys not step up and contribute and really help us hurt that effort when you have to play that small,” head coach Greg Gard said.
To be fair, Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask each hit multiple tough shots against Hepburn and Wahl, respectively. However, UW didn’t have its rim protector with Steven Crowl playing less than 14 minutes, A.J. Storr missing the last six minutes of the first half, and John Blackwell fouling out with four minutes to go.
UW allowed seven second-chance points on four offensive rebounds in the first half and saw Illinois score 14 points off seven turnovers in the first 20 minutes. The Badgers trailed by two entering halftime, but the script could have been flipped had they been cleaner in other areas.
“The margin for error is really slim,” Gard said. “Getting anybody in foul trouble, getting to miss a tough shot and come up with a rebound, it’s small little things that when you stack them together puts you in a bad decision.”
Domask transferred to Illinois in the offseason over Wisconsin and several other schools. He stated he wanted to go to a place that had a chance to compete for a championship, could develop him as a player, and had a defined on-court role for him. He has made life miserable for Big Ten teams with the matchup problems he causes.
Small guys defending him, big guys defending him, doubling him with a variety of combinations, Domask has been productive and finished 8-for-15 on twos with five layups, 4-for-6 on threes, and 3-for-4 from the line.
“I feel like I gave him a couple easy baskets but for the most part he was hitting some tough shots, especially with the left hand,” Wahl said. “You’ve got to tip your hat to that.”
It also didn’t help that Crowl’s absence made Wahl (team-high 20 points) play 38 minutes, 40 seconds and be one of the sole means of low-post offense. Crowl’s absence didn’t hurt Wisconsin’s defensive scheme, per se, but it certainly negatively impacted UW’s offense and put all the pressure on Wahl’s legs.
“That’s a lot of running up and down,” Wahl said of his minutes. “That might have had something to do with it. It definitely takes some energy out of you.”
Shannon Jr. came in ranked second in the Big Ten in scoring at 21.9 ppg and saw him get downhill in a hurry. Drawing seven fouls, Shannon went 8-for-9 from the line to help boost his point total to 23 points.
Wisconsin has allowed three of its last four Big Ten opponents to shoot over 50 percent from the field. The Illini finished at 51.8 percent but were at 1.379 points per possession.
Closing Games Becoming An Issue
Inspired by the presence of former Wisconsin player and assistant coach Howard Moore in a pregame ceremony, the Badgers played inspired, desperate, and full of fight for long portions of the game.
UW led by nine barely five minutes into the game and seven at the midpoint of the first half before Illinois found its flow offensively. In the second half, Illinois built two leads of seven points before Wisconsin chipped away to retake the advantage.
The difference came with 5:44 remaining, following Blackwell’s three-pointer to tie the score at 68. Domask responded by easily driving into the lane and scoring on Wahl following various low-post maneuvers.
That became a theme over the final eight possessions. Blackwell fouled out with 3:54 remaining, putting Crowl back on the floor. With his matchup taking him away from the basket, Illinois scored on all eight of its final possessions, 17 points in all on drives to the rim and free throws.
Domask and Shannon combined for 13 points on the decisive 15-5 run, putting Illinois up 10 with 1:31 remaining.
“We've shown some growth,” Hepburn said. “They made their runs and we came back and responded. But there was just that last one we couldn't respond to. It's just a matter of how are we going to finish games up?”
Since going 15-3 in games decided by two possessions or less in 2021-22, riding that remarkable record to a share of the Big Ten title, the Badgers are 15-13, including 2-5 this season in such games. This stretch since the beginning of February highlights some of those failures and some that fall just outside that two-possession window.
The Badgers blew an 18-point second-half lead and saw Nebraska close overtime on a 6-0 run to lose by eight.
UW got within two with 4:46 remaining against Purdue but gave up seven points on the next four possessions to go down seven with 2:26 remaining in a six-point loss.
They allowed a bad Michigan team to dictate the tempo and fouled too much, watching the Wolverines go 14-for-18 from the line in the second half. Lastly, Tuesday’s loss at Indiana saw the Hoosiers make seven of their final eight shots and win a four-point game by scoring the contest’s final six points.
Odd Lineup Did Provide A First-Half Punch
With Storr limited to 10:27 and Crowl to 8:35 because of fouls, Gard subbed out Markus Ilver and Nolan Winter for veterans Carter Gilmore and Wahl. It’s a lineup that appeared limited from a perimeter standpoint, but the quintet provided a spark.
UW scored 12 points over the final seven possessions of the half (10 on the final five) to close the deficit to 39-37 at the break.
Wahl hit a three-pointer from the top of the key to make it 34-30 (only the third three-point make on 10 attempts from Wahl this season), Blackwell hit a pair of layups, Gilmore delivered a three-point play finishing through contact in the low post (his first field goal since January 26) and held Illinois to 3-for-7 shooting over that stretch.
By The Numbers
3 – Consecutive regular-season home losses for Wisconsin in March.
4 - Points for Crowl on four shot attempts, the 10th time this conference season he’s been held to single-digits. He played a season-low 14 minutes.
20 - Wahl's 20 points tied his season high.
4-7 - Wisconsin is 4-7 without Kamari McGee (foot) being available.
56.0 – Shooting percentage for Illinois in the second half, which averaged 1.529 points per possession and scored on 25 of 34 second-half possessions.
91 – Illinois’ point total is the most it's scored against Wisconsin since 1989 and the most in Madison since 1967.
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