BadgerBlitz.com caught up with TarHeelIllustrated Publisher Andrew Jones to learn more about North Carolina. The Tar Heels, who ended the season 18-10 (sixth in the ACC), have won four of their previous six games.
The following is a question and answer with Jones.
North Carolina has won three of four, what has been going well?
Jones: It really goes back to the end of January and a 10-point win at Pittsburgh. Prior to that point, the Tar Heels’ freshmen guards were struggling managing games and getting the team into the right flow offensively. Much of what UNC does is a freelance motion, so it takes time for players to not only learn to read others, but play off of one another and raise their instincts to an appropriate level. That night was a turning point because they simply looked a lot more like North Carolina than they had for most of the season. They’ve had some hiccups since, but the play of Caleb Love at the point and RJ Davis backing him up and playing alongside him has been the main reason the Heels have mostly been much better since the end of January, though Love remains wildly inconsistent.
More specifically to your question, the Tar Heels have developed more of a collective toughness in recent weeks. I think it dates back to the comeback win over Florida State. Senior Garrison Brooks is leading with grit, something the team didn’t always have this season, and it has trickled down to the younger guys.
What have teams done in the past to slow UNC down?
Jones: I think teams that play like Wisconsin, Virginia, Clemson, etc, have always given UNC fits because the pace can frustrate the Tar Heels, so that has been a factor. But, to be frank, Carolina’s overall youth – 325th most experienced team in the nation and the youngest ever at UNC – has been the most obvious reason.
It takes time for bigs to learn how to run the secondary break and that was basically nonexistent earlier in the season. It takes time for guards to understand there’s a tempo Roy Williams wants on almost every possession, and that has taken time. It’s still a work-in-progress. And, when in the half-court, guards’ decision-making and the lack of a consistent outside thread aside from Kerwin Walton, who has actually struggled of late, has led to many bogged-down possessions.
This team has taken more forced shots as the shot clock winds down than any UNC team I can remember, but it has been less frequent over the last month.
UNC is at its best when… UNC struggles when….?
Jones: UNC is at its best when the bigs are running baseline to baseline, getting in position before opposing defenses get set, when the guards play with their heads up, and when players are ripping the ball out of the net and pitching it ahead, and that’s after opponents’ makes or misses.
UNC struggles when it doesn’t shoot well from the outside and the freshmen guards get impatient and start driving into traffic in the lane too much. When that starts to happen, the Tar Heels have trouble pulling themselves out of that mode.
Does UNC play with more of a traditional lineup? Do they usually have two 6-foot-10-plus guys in?
Jones: Carolina always has two bigs on the floor. They have four in the rotation and they are all plenty serviceable. Garrison Brooks started part of his freshman year on a team that was a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament and started all season as a sophomore on a team that was a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. He was preseason ACC player of the year, but ended up not making the All-ACC team because he underperformed. But, he embraced his reality about a month ago and has played his best basketball of the season since.
Sophomore Armando Bacot has been their best and most consistent player. He has NBA potential, especially if his game continues to develop at the rate it has. He was a McDonald’s All-America and this season has played like it.
Freshmen Day’Ron Sharpe and Walker Kessler were McDonald’s All-Americans and have shown that kind of ability at times this season, especially Sharpe, who has had games in which he was UNC’s best player. Sharpe is a likely first-round pick in this summer’s draft if he chooses to leave. He has a super quick spin move, is relentless around the basket and is a terrific athlete, though he doesn’t have great hands, which has been an issue at times.
Kessler may have the highest ceiling of the quartet but he’s also the least experienced. He missed a lot of practice before the season because he tested positive for COVID and didn’t really catch up until February. He can run the floor, protect the rim, has impressive skills near the basket, and can even step away.
UNC will try to run most everything through the post. That is this team’s strength by a country mile.
Youth in the backcourt - how has that played out? Has the youth/inexperience showed up?
Jones: It has been an issue all season. Even with as much progress as the freshmen in the backcourt have made, they are still a long way from being where Williams wants and need them. Just last week at the ACC Tournament, Love was 6-for-26 with one assist combined versus Virginia Tech and FSU. His decision making was questionable and he looked more like Caleb Love from December than February.
The same can be said for RJ Davis, though he played much better in Greensboro, but his management versus FSU was poor. And two guard Kerwin Walton, the team’s best shooter, had just seven field goals in three games in Greensboro. Teams have figured out the best way to defend him is make him move once he gets the ball, and I suspect Wisconsin will do the same. Greg Gard and his staff do an excellent job scouting opponents, so look for the Badgers to make Walton move, because if he’s dribbling he’s not shooting threes.
This is a talented group, but they’ve been inconsistent all season and have had huge issues not just turning over the ball, but doing so in manners that lead to easy baskets for opponents. UNC recently went through a four-game stretch where it turned over the ball 80 times leading to 95 opponents’ points. It can be that ugly at times.
If they struggle Friday night, Wisconsin could be primed to advance.
North Carolina wins this game if…
Jones: Through 28 games, one thing has stood out over time: If UNC hits threes and minimizes its opponents’ success on the perimeter, it usually wins. That’s the first thing, the second is not turning the ball over so much, that has been a disastrous problem for the Tar Heels at times. Opponents have scored 18 or more points off UNC turnovers in 13 of 28 games. And the last thing is the bigs need to be big on the glass and scoring down low. At times, Carolina has one of the bets front lines in the nation, so it must use that strength to defeat quality teams, and Wisconsin is obviously a quality team.
Score prediction and how you think the game plays out?
Jones: I haven’t yet worked out my prediction, but I do think UNC will be ready to play, though there’s no telling how these kids will shoot the ball or how they will deal with the manner Wisconsin plays. The Clemson and UVA game suggest Carolina could have some trouble with that. But I think the rebounding advantage, ability to score inside and that Walton will hit a few threes leads me to believe UNC will advance, but this game will go down to the wire.
This is not anything close to a vintage UNC team. This season is really a long dress rehearsal for what is likely coming for this group, and that’s a return to norm for Carolina. But, as for now, I think UNC wins a really close game, but it’s really a toss-up. Ask me in an hour and I might go with the Badgers.
