Previewing No. 19 Penn State with Rivals.com's Blue White Illustrated

Three days separate the Big Ten cross-divisional clash between No. 12 Wisconsin and No. 19 Penn State

Here are significant stats and key Nittany Lions standouts to know, along with in-depth insight from our Q&A with Blue White Illustrated's Nate Bauer.

*Record: 4-5

*Points per game: 29.8

*Opponents points per game: 27.7

*Rushing yards per game: 174.3

*Opponents rushing yards per game: 130.2

*Passing yards per game: 256.0

*Opponents' passing yards per game: 198.6

*Third-down conversions: 42.1%

*Opponents' third-down conversions: 37%

*Total turnovers created: 9 (four interceptions, five fumble recoveries)

*Total turnovers given up: 17 (nine interceptions, eight fumbles)

*Sacks: 21

*Sacks allowed: 28

*Quarterback Sean Clifford: 60.6% completion percentage, 1,883 yards, 16 touchdowns, nine interceptions; 335 rushing yards, 3.4 yards per carry, three touchdowns

*Running back Keyvone Lee: 438 rushing yards, 4.9 yards per carry, four touchdowns

*Running back Noah Cain: Three carries, 13 yards (just one game played last season)

*Wide receiver Jahan Dotson: 52 receptions, 884 receiving yards, eight touchdowns

*Wide receiver Parker Washington: 36 receptions, 489 receiving yards, six touchdowns

*Linebacker Ellis Brooks: 60 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss

*Linebacker Jesse Luketa: 59 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss

*Linebacker Brandon Smith: 37 tackles, eight tackles for loss, two sacks, one interception

*Safety Jaquan Brisker: 57 tackles, six pass breakups, one interception

*Cornerback Tariq Castro-Fields: 12 tackles, one pass breakup (three games)

*Cornerback Joey Porter Jr.: 33 tackles, two tackles for loss, one sack, four pass breakups

*Defensive tackle P.J. Mustipher: 35 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, one sack

I think it depends on who you ask.

For fans and the media covering the program, not to mention the oddsmakers, eight or nine wins seem to be about the consensus. The quarterback situation is the same with Sean Clifford returning for a fifth season and, regardless of the conversation this offseason, he’s a guy who had an absolute disaster of a 2020 campaign.

Using that as a starting point, and given the program’s schedule, all of the other storylines tend to get buried when it comes to the outlook for this team.

But that’s not my impression coming from the program itself. And I think that’s because the program believes that a good portion of Clifford’s struggles last year were at least partly the result of the avalanche of bad breaks and shortcomings that surrounded him.

Give Clifford a page-turning offseason to reset, then give him back a healthy Noah Cain at running back, an offensive line with a year of work under the direction of assistant Phil Trautwein, a tight end room the program believes is one of the best in the country, and some wideouts who have demonstrated their talents in Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington, and the thinking goes that this season will be dramatically different from last.

And that’s to say nothing of the coaching staff addition of Mike Yurcich at offensive coordinator, who James Franklin has long sought and believes can return the program to its explosiveness of the 2016 and 2017 seasons.

So the answer probably is somewhere in the middle.

Will Penn State be as bad as last year? Unless Murphy’s Law strikes again and absolutely everything that can go wrong does, I don’t think so.

Will Penn State be as good as it internally believes itself capable? Unless the personnel that has played in the past demonstrates that its weaknesses have been resolved, particularly at quarterback, then that doesn’t seem likely either.

Penn State and James Franklin are super tightlipped about injuries so, in any official capacity, there is nothing to report.

However, a little easy math suggests that a few pieces that might have been part of the equation this season will at least start the year as not. For instance, Sal Wormley seemed to be a probable candidate to compete for the starting job at left guard. Tuesday, Franklin called that position a split rotation between Anthony Whigan and transfer Eric Wilson.

At linebacker, backup Charlie Katshir, who has struggled with injuries throughout his career at Penn State, hasn’t been mentioned much at all. And most notably, the major injury news of the offseason came on the defensive line as Adisa Isaac, an anticipated starter and breakout candidate at end, was announced as lost for the season. Again, Franklin and Penn State didn’t specify more than that, but he’s expected to miss the entirety of the year.

It’s tough to gauge impact before the games start, especially for players who have had limited roles in the past, but Isaac’s is the absence Penn State is most likely to miss from a pass rush perspective.

What’s interesting to me is whether or not Wisconsin is going to find out.

Without a preseason or at least a non-conference patsy on the slate, is the Mike Yurcich offense that Penn State trots out to the Camp Randall turf going to look anything like a polished product? I have some doubts about that, and former Penn State quarterback Matt McGloin more or less confirmed the challenges of adjusting to a new offensive coordinator when he recently reflected on the 0-2 start during his senior season with Bill O’Brien at the helm in 2012.

Granted, they’re not the same situations, but Clifford, Yurcich, and the rest of Penn State’s offense are all going to have their work cut out for them trying to put it all together in that environment for the first game of the season.

All that said -- and I’m aware of how conflicting this is going to sound -- I think the explosiveness of Penn State’s offense is the key to this game.

The bottom line is, Penn State is determined to rip off home runs. That’s how James Franklin envisions his offenses going when they’re at their peak. So whether or not this group is a well-oiled machine marching up and down the field is less of a determining issue, in my mind, than if they have four or five game-defining plays in the bag.

Dotson has shown he’s capable, for sure, and Clifford has at times relished in big-play potential with his legs and through the air. The tight ends and running backs as a group both seem to have that potential.

But it’s all a matter of whether or not those opportunities come, and if they are taken advantage of when they do.

Because of Isaac’s absence, that role is most likely to be filled by Temple transfer Arnold Ebiketie, who comes to Penn State with high expectations for himself and high hopes on his shoulders as far as the program is concerned. No one has seen him at this level, though, so he’s a bit of a wildcard.

The second is in the form of Nick Tarburton, who shares a similar trait in that the injuries through his career have also shielded him from the eyes of most Penn State fans to this point.

Those two guys, without question, are going to have their work cut out for them at Wisconsin and are going to be a major storyline to watch in this game and the season. Penn State defensive coordinator Brent Pry has built his groups around stopping the run primarily and then forcing obvious passing down situations where pressure can create havoc for opponents and opportunity for his unit. Getting that element from one of them, or both, is going to be essential to Penn State’s ability to do what it wants defensively.

Other potential defensive playmakers to watch are Brandon Smith at linebacker, true freshman Kalen King at corner, and both Jaquan Brisker and Ji’Ayir Brown as Penn State’s two safeties.

These are probably broad generalizations, and without seeing anything from either of these teams this year I think we’re all flying a little blind, but here’s how I see a couple of potential edges for these two programs.

For Penn State, I think the best-case scenario is double-pronged in that I think it wants to take shots against a Wisconsin program that, at least last season, was a little feast or famine offensively. In other words, I think Penn State will like its opportunity to get a road win if this is a game it can keep in the 20s or low 30s, simply as a result of not feeling like a couple of scores mean the game is completely out of reach.

For Wisconsin, meanwhile, there is an entire blueprint out there showing how to make Clifford uncomfortable and force him into mistakes. If the Badgers are as good at creating pressure as I think they are defensively, that could create a set of circumstances where a relatively low-scoring game won’t matter with Penn State not having the chance to get something going.

Picking the first game of the season is always a wildcard.

How will Clifford look after his disastrous 2020? What will game one of the Yurcich transition look like? Is Wisconsin capable of beating up this Penn State D?

My initial instincts to answer those questions are: Good enough, explosive (if inconsistent), and, I don’t quite think so, but maybe.

Penn State’s big bet from a philosophical standpoint is that most of its Big Ten opponents aren’t positioned to keep pace in a track meet, and Wisconsin seems a little Jekyll and Hyde in that regard.

Given enough opportunities, which the Lions’ newly fast-paced offense will provide, that can keep a game within reach even amidst an up-and-down performance.

I can see a few scenarios where one team firmly establishes itself as a force and wins easily, but I see many more scenarios where this is an ugly, competitive, close game decided in the fourth quarter. I see Penn State as having at least a slight edge in explosiveness offensively, so that’s what I’m going to give as the differentiator here.

Penn State 31, Wisconsin 27