Previewing Minnesota with Rivals' The Gopher Report
Inside TCF Bank Stadium on Saturday, Paul Bunyan's Axe and a shot for the Big Ten Championship await the victor of the annual rivalry between the Wisconsin Badgers and Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Here are significant stats and key Gophers to know, along with in-depth insight from our Q&A with The Gopher Report's Matt Jessen-Howard.
2019 TEAM STATS
*Record: 10-1, 7-1 Big Ten
*Points per game: 35.9
*Opponents points per game: 21.0
*Rushing yards per game: 184.7
*Opponents rushing yards per game: 123.8
*Passing yards per game: 247.1
*Opponents' passing yards per game: 176.3
*Third-down conversions: 51.9%
*Opponents' third-down conversions: 38.9%
*Total turnovers created: 17 (14 interceptions, three fumbles recovered)
*Total turnovers given up: 12 (six interceptions, six fumbles lost)
*Sacks: 26
*Sacks allowed: 25
PLAYERS TO KNOW: OFFENSE
*Quarterback Tanner Morgan: 67.9 completion percentage, 2,679 yards, 26 touchdowns, five interceptions
*Running back Rodney Smith: 1,063 yards, 5.3 yards per carry, eight touchdowns
*Running back Mohamed Ibrahim: 425 yards, 4.8 yards per carry, six touchdowns
*Running back Shannon Brooks: 386 yards, 5.8 yards per carry, two touchdowns
*Wide receiver Tyler Johnson: 66 receptions, 1,025 yards, 10 touchdowns
*Wide receiver Rashod Bateman: 51 receptions, 1,023 yards, 10 touchdowns
*Wide receiver Chris Autman-Bell: 24 receptions, 348 yards, five touchdowns
PLAYERS TO KNOW: DEFENSE
*Defensive back Antoine Winfield, Jr.: 76 tackles, three sacks, seven interceptions, two forced fumbles
*Linebacker Thomas Barber: 59 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss
*Linebacker Kamal Martin: 57 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss
*Linebacker Carter Coughlin: 43 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, four pass breakups, two forced fumbles
*Defensive lineman Sam Renner: 39 tackles, seven tackles for loss, four sacks, four pass breakups
*Defensive back Coney Durr: 25 tackles, one interception, nine pass breakups
*Defensive back Benjamin St-Juste: 30 tackles, seven pass breakups
1. Minnesota comes into this game a 10-win team, a top-10 program, and College GameDay is heading to the Twin Cities this weekend. What is the atmosphere like up in the Gopher State heading into this weekend's matchup?
This is the most excited Minnesota has been in a long, long time. The only comparable season since the 1960s was Minnesota’s 10-win season in 2003. Being in a pro sports town and state, the Gophers have lots of competition for their attention, but a season like this gets the diehard and Average Joe fans alike drawn to the team. The Battle for the Axe is always a big game and this week's it's amplified with Minnesota being in talk for the CFP (although unlikely) and Rose Bowl. And, of course, the winner of Saturday's game winning the West.
2. We always ask about injuries. Who's out, who's in, who's iffy, and what could be the impact heading into Saturday's game?
Starting tight end Jake Paulson is a day-to-day, but Minnesota rotates its tight ends in and out quite a bit. The offense is often in 12 personnel. Paulson is the only regular contributor that's hurt. Zack Annexstad might have been the starting quarterback this season but has missed this season with a foot injury. Backup holder Casey O'Brien, who's beat cancer four times and is the team's backup holder, learned this week that there's a cancer spot in his lung, so that's been the primary health news from the team this week. There was a team meeting after O'Brien heard the news.
3. The offense boasts a 1,000-yard rusher, two 1,000-yard receivers, and a quarterback who has thrown for almost 2,700 yards. What makes this unit hum along so nicely?
Minnesota looks to establish the run first -- its fifth in the Power 5 in percentage of plays that are runs -- and then beat defenses with play-action. Having playmakers at all skill positions allows for the play-action and RPO game to be very effective.
The three backs are Rodney Smith, Shannon Brooks and Mo Ibrahim, and they’re all a little bit different. Smith is patient, quick and slippery. Brooks is fast and has a “run you over” mentality. Ibrahim, who was the primary back last season with Smith and Brooks both hurt, is small but a powerful and patient runner; he ran rushed for 1,160 yards and nine touchdowns last season with Smith and Brooks injured. Smith receives more carries than Ibrahim, who receives more carries than Brooks.
Tanner Morgan has been Minnesota's best quarterback in decades and has the program’s best three receivers since Eric Decker to throw to in Tyler Johnson, Rashod Bateman and Chris Autman-Bell. The Gophers run a lot of RPOs and have a lot of success throwing slants and posts over the middle of the field. In the second half, they’ll mix in sluggos and corner routes to take advantage of the previous repetition of routes over the middle. Minnesota will also try to throw deep to their receivers in single coverage.
To me, a huge X-factor on Saturday will be offensive line play. The line has improved drastically this season but still struggles some with consistency. The Gophers lost at the line of scrimmage in all three non-conference games, and the run game struggled to get the run game going as a result -- a big problem for an offense that always tries to establish the run. The line has improved a ton, however: I thought they won the battle at the line of scrimmage in every Big Ten game until Penn State and maybe Iowa. Wisconsin obviously has a talented front seven and play some really interesting fronts, so the Gopher line will need to be mentally and physically on top of their game.
4. On the flip side, Minnesota's defense has not allowed 200 rushing yards to a single opponent this season and gives up 21 points per game. Who and what has led to so much success on that side of the line of scrimmage?
Overall, it's a very experienced group. Several on the defense have been contributors since back in 2016 under a Tracy Claeys/Jay Sawvel defense that was Top 20 nationally. There's considerable experience and All-Big Ten talent in all three defensive position groups.
Antoine Winfield Jr. is, in my opinion, the team’s best player and probably on pace to be a First Team All-American. He’s stout in run support, able to match up with receivers one-on-one and has great ball skills. Besides Winfield, senior stand-up rush end Carter Coughlin and senior linebacker Kamal Martin are the defense’s best players and will both play in the NFL.
Defensive coordinator Joe Rossi usually has Minnesota in a nickel 4-2-5, with some 4-3 mixed in. Coverage is usually man or Cover 4.
5. On both sides of the ball, where do you feel Minnesota could have a significant advantage, and on vice versa, where can Wisconsin give P.J. Fleck's team fits?
Quite honestly, I don't think there are any areas of the game where one team drastically is better than the other. Both teams are pretty well-rounded. I think Minnesota's receivers probably compare favorably to a Wisconsin secondary without Scott Nelson and potentially Faion Hicks, even though the Badgers have had a top 10 pass defense this season. The weather may play a role in the Wisconsin passing game, however. I would give Wisconsin's run defense an edge over Minnesota's run game, as well.
On the flip side of the ball, Wisconsin's top 10 run game is stronger than Minnesota's top 25 run defense. Containing Jonathan Taylor is obviously a concern. I think there have been about 2.5 games this season that Minnesota's not tackled well and if they don't tackle well against Taylor, they'll lose.
Lastly, Minnesota's special teams have been really, really poor this season. The unit actually ranks 93rd in Bill Connelly's SP+ special teams ranking.
6. What's your game prediction, and why?
Minnesota 24, Wisconsin 21.
I think it will be a one-possession game and I wouldn't be surprised if Wisconsin wins; I was actually leaning towards picking the Badgers earlier in the week. However, Minnesota is healthier, has more offensive playmakers and is playing at home.