We sit a couple days away from Wisconsin's third conference clash of the 2021 season when it faces Illinois in Champaign
Here are significant stats and key Fighting Illini standouts to know before Saturday's matchup inside Memorial Stadium (2:30 p.m. CT, BTN), plus in-depth insight from our Q&A with Orange & Blue News' Doug Bucshon.
ILLINOIS' 2021 STATS
*Record: 2-4 overall, 1-2 Big Ten
*Points per game: 20.7
*Opponents points per game: 24.7
*Rushing yards per game: 187.2
*Opponents rushing yards per game: 125.2
*Passing yards per game: 168.2
*Opponents' passing yards per game: 292.2
*Third-down conversions: 42.7%
*Opponents' third-down conversions: 41.9%
*Total turnovers created: 10 (four interceptions, six fumble recoveries)
*Total turnovers given up: 6 (two interceptions, four fumbles)
*Sacks: 15
*Sacks allowed: 14
PLAYERS TO KNOW: OFFENSE
*Quarterback Artur Sitkowski: 58-of-102 (56.8%), 611 yards, six touchdowns, one interception
*Quarterback Brandon Peters: 37-of-75 (49.3%), 398 yards, one touchdown, one interception
*Running back Chase Brown: 379 rushing yards, 7.3 yards per carry, three touchdowns
*Running back Josh McCray: 329 yards, 5.5 yards per carry, one touchdown
*Wide receiver Isaiah Williams: 28 receptions, 275 yards, one touchdown
*Wide receiver Deuce Spann: 4 receptions, 117 yards, two touchdowns
*Wide receiver Casey Washington: 12 receptions, 103 yards
*Offensive lineman Alex Palczewski: 77.1 PFF Grade for 2021
*Offensive lineman Vederian Lowe: 75.6 PFF Grade for 2021
*Offensive lineman Doug Kramer: 74.1 PFF Grade for 2021
PLAYERS TO KNOW: DEFENSE
*Linebacker Jake Hansen: 30 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles
*Defensive back Sydney Brown: 36 tackles, two pass breakups, one forced fumble
*Defensive back Jartavius Martin: 35 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, four pass breakups
*Linebacker Tarique Barnes: 30 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, one sack, two pass breakups
*Defensive back Kerby Joseph: 27 tackles, two interceptions, two pass breakups, two forced fumbles, one safety
*Defensive back Tony Adams: 28 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, one interception, three pass breakups
*Defensive back Devon Witherspoon: 27 tackles, four tackles for loss, seven pass breakups
*Outside linebacker Owen Carney Jr.: 22 tackles, five tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks
*Outside linebacker Seth Coleman: 21 tackles, three tackles for loss, two sacks
*Defensive lineman Keith Randolph Jr.: Seven tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, two sacks, one interception
1) Illinois snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over Charlotte last weekend. What significant changes have you noticed within the program since Bret Bielema took over?
The schematic changes are pretty dramatic. Illinois switched from Lovie’s Tampa-2 defense with a four-man front to a 3-4, and several players switched positions. Weakside defensive ends who previously played with their hand on the ground – Isaiah Gay and Owen Carney – are now rush linebackers in the new look.
The offense is a pro-style scheme, with a lot of 12-personnel sets (one running back, two tight ends) and other power running formations. They’ll spread things out some on obvious passing downs, but they don’t generally spread defenses out horizontally like in the spread system run by their predecessors. This is a run-first team that’s traditional in the way they set up the pass with the run.
In terms of style, Bielema is more of a hands-on coach than Lovie Smith. He’s deeply involved in every phase of the game. He’s also less likely to let players play through mental errors and he’s not afraid to make a lineup change if things aren’t working.
2) We always ask this -- who's out, who's iffy, who's returning from injury, and what impact could that have for Illinois on Saturday?
Cornerback Devon Witherspoon and linebacker Jake Hansen both missed the last two games with undisclosed injuries and haven’t yet been fully cleared for Saturday, though that could happen in the next couple of days. Both are starters and leaders of the defense.
Outside linebacker Isaiah Gay, a spot starter, left last week’s game with an injury but he should be good-to-go for the Wisconsin game. The player who supplemented Gay in the starting lineup earlier in the season, Seth Coleman, had a leg injury against Charlotte and is questionable. It’s not likely a season-ending injury, but his status is unknown as of Tuesday.
3) The offense is scoring under 21 points per game, but it's averaging 187.2 yards per game on the ground. Where has the unit seen promise within the different position groups, and where are there still areas of improvement needed?
There are a lot of areas that need improvement, but the running game really got rolling last week against Charlotte with Chase Brown rushing for 257 yards, earning Big Ten offensive player of the week honors. Of course a big part of that was the opponent, and Wisconsin is on an entirely different level stuffing the run than any other team Illinois has played this season.
Illinois is in great shape at running back now and in the next several seasons. Brown is just a sophomore, and true freshman Josh McCray has been the biggest surprise of the season for Illinois. He’s a 240-pound bruiser out of Alabama who also has a surprising burst. That’s a good 1-2 punch with Brown and McCray. Up front, left tackle Vederian Lowe is having a terrific season that should earn him some All-Big Ten consideration.
The vertical passing game has been bad. There’s no nice way to put it. Neither Brandon Peters or second stringer Art Sitkowski, a Rutgers transfer, have shown they can make the plays that move the chains and keep drives alive. They’ve had all kinds of trouble getting the ball downfield, and neither has good instincts or much pocket presence. There are a few athletes at wide receiver, but they are extremely inexperienced. Tight ends Daniel Barker and Luke Ford are talented and probably should be targeted more often.
4) The defense allows 24.7 points per game, and it's given up over 417 total yards per contest. However, it has not allowed more than 133 rushing yards since its second game of the season. Who has stood out early on from the group?
The Illini defense has been stingy in the middle of the field of late, something that was a problem area earlier in the season and throughout Smith’s tenure as head coach.
It starts up front with two talented underclassmen in nose tackle Keith Randolph and defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton. Randolph missed a couple of games with an injury, but he’s healthy now and is a difference maker. Both are strong and athletic.
The Illini run a 3-4 defense, and the two inside linebackers Tarique Barnes and Khalan Tolson have really stepped up their game in the last couple of weeks. Both are playing in place of the starters in game one, C.J. Hart and Jake Hansen, who have been injured. Hart is out for the season. The aforementioned Hansen could be back.
Finally, junior free safety Kerby Joseph played himself into the starting lineup and he’s been a standout both in pass coverage and run support. He’s one of the top tacklers on the team and has two big interceptions, one coming in the end zone against Maryland.
There’s still much room for improvement. The Illini pass defense ranks No. 13 in the Big Ten, yielding 286 yards per game through the air. They also rank No. 13 in the conference in opponent third down conversion. They have played better lately, though.
5) Where do you see Illinois having an advantage over Wisconsin, and vice versa, where do you see the Badgers having an edge over the Fighting Illini?
Pretty simple. Illinois is a running team, and Wisconsin has the best run defense in college football. If the Illini can’t go to their bread and butter and have to put the ball in the air 40-plus times, they don’t have much of a chance. The Badgers have allowed opponents just 1.7 yards per carry, an amazing stat. Both teams will want to run the football, but only one of them is great at stuffing the run. Advantage: Badgers.
Illinois has a sizable advantage in turnover margin, and that’s where the hopes lie if the Illini are to pull the upset. Illinois has just six turnovers on the season, while Wisconsin has given the ball away 12 times in two fewer games. Peters is having a rough season, but he doesn’t toss many interceptions.
6) What's your game prediction and why?
Illinois won’t be able to get in the end zone, unless it’s on big plays. I can’t see the Illini establishing the run against Wisconsin or being able to sustain long drives. If quarterback Brandon Peters faces 3rd-and-long situations, and he very likely will, he will make some negative plays. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wisconsin score on defense.
With the offense unable to get much going, the Illini defense will get worn down and the Badgers should dominate the fourth quarter. The Badgers’ offensive hasn’t been a juggernaut, but they should have Illinois playing with its back to the wall for much of the game.
Wisconsin 27 Illinois 10
