No. 6 BYU (25-9, 14-6 Big 12) vs. No.3 Wisconsin (27-9, 13-7 Big Ten)

Date/Time – Saturday, March 22, 6:45 p.m.

Arena – Denver's Ball Arena (19,099)

Television – CBS (Brad Nessler, Brendan Haywood and Dana Jacobson)

Radio – Westwood One (Kevin Kugler and Austin Croshere), Badgers Radio Network (Matt Lepay and Brian Butch), Sirius 210 or 203, stream online on iHeartRadio.

Series – Wisconsin leads 1-0

Last Meeting – Wisconsin won, 73-56, on Nov. 26, 2011, in Provo, Utah

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Twitter: @Badger_Blitz

Betting line: Wisconsin -1.5

Player to Watch: Xavier Amos. The junior scored a bench-high 11 points on 5-of-9 shooting, to go along with two blocks, in his first-ever NCAA Tournament game Thursday.

More importantly, he played with a comfort that we haven’t always seen this year. An extra body off the bench, especially in the frontcourt, will pay dividends against a bigger and more physical BYU team.

Player to watch: Keba Keita.

The 6-foot-8 center played 20 minutes off the bench against VCU, recording nine rebounds, four blocks and a steal, to go with nine points on 3-of-4 shooting.

The Badgers have struggled against physical bigs all season, and Keita could be the next to take advantage.

With Thursday’s win over No. 14 Montana, the Badgers will advance past the first round for the first time since 2022, with a chance to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2017, Gard’s first full year as head coach.

Wisconsin shot 55.4% from the field against Montana. It was their highest field goal percentage since the Feb. 15 win over Purdue, and the fourth time they’ve shot 55% or above this season.

They took advantage of the size mismatch with a more conservative and paint-heavy approach. They shot 72.7% on 2-pointers, their third-best performance of the season. It was also just the seventh time they’ve shot 23 3-pointers or less.

John Blackwell led the team with 19 points on 7-of-12 overall shooting and 5-of-6 from the line. It was his 11th time leading the Badgers in scoring this season, second behind John Tonje with 19.

Steven Crowl finished second in scoring with 18 points on 8-of-10 shooting overall and 2-of-3 from distance. It was the second time this season he’s scored 18 or more points and shot 80% or better from the field.

Like Wisconsin, BYU suffered a first-round upset loss in last season’s NCAA tournament, at the hands of No. 11 Duquesne.

This will be the Cougars’ first time in the Round of 32 since 2014. They made the tournament 11 times between 2001 and 2015, then proceeded to miss seven of the next eight. Coach Mark Pope took them to the tournament twice in his five seasons with the team before leaving for Kentucky last season. This is now coach Kevin Young’s first year on the job, after spending over a decade as an NBA assistant.

The Cougars overcame a rocky first half of the season and proceeded to enter the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country. On Jan. 18, they were 11-6 overall and 2-4 in the Big Ten. Since then, they’ve gone 13-3. Their only loss in the past month was to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament.

On Thursday, they made easy work of No. 11 VCU, winners of the Atlantic 10 conference who also entered the tournament hot. The 80-71 victory was highlighted by a 30-10 run that took place within the last five minutes of the first half and the first four of the second.

The Cougars’ high-powered offense is the biggest reason they’ve made it this far. They’re No. 29 in the country in points per game (81) and No. 23 in field goal percentage (48.2). According to KenPom, they’re the No. 10 most efficient offense in the country.

Like the Badgers, this is a heavy 3-point shooting team — No. 20 in 3-pointers attempted per game (28.8), No. 9 in makes (10.7) and No. 31 in percentage (37.3).

The efficient offense runs through guard Richie Saunders, a first-team all-Big 12 selection who leads the Cougars in scoring (16 ppg) while shooting 50.9% from the field and 43.3% from distance.

Yet the most intriguing player might be freshman forward Egor Demin, who’s projected to be selected in the next NBA Draft if he chooses to leave school.

They’ll play Saturday’s game with somewhat of a home court advantage, as Denver, Colorado is only 480 miles away from Provo, Utah. For reference, Madison is almost 1,000 miles away. Multiple BYU chants broke out during their win over VCU on Thursday.

They’ll also have an advantage in terms of elevation adjustment. Provo sits 4,551 feet above sea level, while Madison is just 873 feet above.

These teams may not look the same in terms of personnel, but they’re run with a similar philosophy. Both programs’ first two priorities are to have (1) an analytically-sound shot selection and (2) size down low.

Both programs are also bonded by a rich history and tradition preceding a disappointing recent decade. The stakes are high for each school and fanbase.

While the high-powered offenses may grab the headlines, this game will be decided in the paint. Wisconsin has struggled against physical big men all season. The Cougars’ frontcourt duo of Keba Keita and Fousseyni Traeore dominated VCU, and will enter Saturday with momentum. Wisconsin’s bigs did a great job of fending off Michigan’s seven-footers in the rematch, but the negative performances still outweigh the positives.

There’s also a solid chance this BYU offense will rattle off at least one big scoring run, similar to what we saw in the middle of the VCU game.

Given what we saw during the season, both offenses are capable of a game-tilting run. Yet I have more faith that the team playing closer to their elevation will be able to last all 40 minutes.

BYU has an efficient offense, physical bigs and will play in front of a mostly home crowd, without much of a change in elevation. If they get hot from outside, it’s over.

KenPom gave the Badgers a 59% chance to win, predicting a 78-76 final score. I’m not as optimistic.

Prediction: BYU 76, Wisconsin 71

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