Published Dec 3, 2024
Preview: No.11 Wisconsin Opens Big Ten Play Against Michigan
Benjamin Worgull  •  BadgerBlitz
Senior Writer
Twitter
@TheBadgerNation

Michigan (6-1, 0-0 Big Ten) vs. No.11 Wisconsin (8-0, 0-0 Big Ten)

Date/Time – Tuesday, December 3, 8 p.m. CT

Arena – Kohl Center (16,838)

Watch – Peacock (Noah Eagle and Robbie Hummel)

Radio – Badgers Radio Network (Matt Lepay and Brian Butch), Sirius 381, stream online on iHeartRadio.

Series – Michigan leads 96-79 (Wisconsin leads 49-36 in Madison)

Last Meeting - Michigan won, 72-68, on Feb.7, 2024, in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Follow Online: The Badgers' Den

Twitter: @Badger_Blitz

Betting line: Wisconsin -3.5

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Projected Starting Five (Wisconsin)
No.WISCONSINHT/WTPTSREBAST

9

G John Tonje (Gr.)

6-4, 215

22.9

5.4

2.0

11

G Max Klesmit (Gr.)

6-4, 200

11.5

1.8

3.0

22

F Steven Crowl (Gr.)

7-0, 245

8.5

5.3

3.5

25

G John Blackwell (So.)

6-4, 203

14.9

4.4

1.8

31

F Nolan Winter (So.)

7-0, 220

9.6

5.6

0.9

Player to Watch: Having scored in double figures in every game and 15+ points in seven, Tonje ranks seventh in the NCAA in scoring. He is shooting 52.7 percent FG (49-93), 42.1 percent 3FG (16-38) and 94.5 percent FT (69-73).

Projected Starting Five (Michigan)
No.MICHIGANHT/WTPTSREBAST

1

F Danny Wolf (Jr.)

7-0, 250

10.9

9.9

2.9

3

G Tre Donaldson (Jr.)

6-3, 195

13.0

2.4

4.0

4

G Nimari Burnett (Gr.)

6-5, 200

10.0

3.0

1.9

11

G Roddy Gayle Jr. (Jr.)

6-5, 205

12.0

3.1

3.0

50

C Vladislav Goldin (Gr.)

7-1, 250

9.1

4.7

0.7

Player to watch: Wolf has a team-best three double-doubles this season. In Michigan’s last game, a 78-53 victory over No.22 Xavier, Wolf had 20 points and 14 rebounds to lead the Wolverines to their first holiday tournament title in five seasons.

Series Notes

Wisconsin has won seven of the last 10 games over Michigan at the Kohl Center, including two straight.

Under head coach Greg Gard, the Badgers are 6-8 against the Wolverines.

Since 2001-02, when Bo Ryan and Gard (then associate head coach) began coaching at Wisconsin, the Badgers lead the series 26-14.

Wisconsin Notes

Since Ryan and Gard arrived in Madison in 2001, UW has the most Big Ten wins and best win percentage at 276-138 (.667). With double-digit Big Ten wins in 20 of the last 23 seasons, Wisconsin is the only team that has done that.

Since the start of last season, the Badgers are 20-3 at home. All three losses came against ranked teams (No.9 Tennessee, No.2 Purdue and No.13 Illinois).

UW debuted at No. 17 in the NET rankings, going 3-0 in Quad 1/2 games. Among Big Ten teams, only Oregon (4) has more Quad 1/2 wins.

Blackwell has scored double figures in six of eight games this season and 20 times in his career. UW is 15-5 when he scores in double figures.

Senior Kamari McGee is averaging 22.1 minutes per game off the bench this season, tallying 6.5 points, and 1.9 assists per game shooting 58.8 percent FG, including 52.9 percent 3FG (9-for-17). Wisconsin is 21-3 in games when McGee plays 10+ minutes.

Michigan Notes

Michigan returns five Wolverines from its 2023-24 squad, including starter Burnett and sixth-man Tschetter. Michigan brought in 11 new players with two graduate transfers, four junior transfers, one sophomore transfer, and four freshmen.

Michigan’s win over Xavier was the first over a ranked opponent for Dusty May as the Wolverines head coach. Overall, he is 6-2 against ranked opponents.

Burnett leads U-M with 15 long-range baskets as he shoots 50.0 percent (15-for-30). He has made a triple in his last six straight games.

Rookie L.J. Cason has recorded three double-figure games off the bench. He is shooting 50.0 percent from the fi eld (18-for-36).

In the first half, Donaldson averages 4.7 points, shooting 42.3 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from long range (4-for-12). In the second half, Donaldson averages 8.3 points, shooting 60.6 percent from the fi eld and 60.0 percent from long range (9-for-15).

Prediction

Although held under 79 points for the first time all season in Saturday’s lower possession, Wisconsin is averaging 85.3 ppg, its highest scoring average since scoring a program record 86.3 pgg in 1970-71, shooting 46.8 percent from the field and 35.9 percent from three. Michigan averages 80.9 points, hitting 50.4 percent of its field goals and 38.5 percent of its three-pointers.

Tonight’s game will likely come down to which team can slow the other’s offense. The Wolverines have the best defensive team the Badgers have seen thus far, ranked 10th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings. Only allowing 60.1 points per game, Michigan is holding teams to 36.9 percent shooting, 29.6 percent on threes, and forcing 17.3 turnovers per game.

One caveat, the Wolverines haven’t played an offense rated in the top 70 and have yet to play a game outside Quad-3 or Quad-4.

Wisconsin’s defense has been steadily growing over the last two games and how the Badgers handle the two 7-footers will play a role tonight. Despite its size, Michigan gives up 12.1 offensive boards per game. Can Winter and Crowl be active on the glass?

The other thing to watch is free throws. Michigan has held teams to 14.7 attempts per game and has shot 66.7 percent from the line. UW had held teams to 17.3 attempts and is shooting 86.4 percent, a huge edge to the home team.

Worgull’s Prediction: Wisconsin by 9.

Record: 6-2 (6-2 ATS)

Points off Prediction: 80 (10.0 per game)

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