No.11 Wisconsin (22-6, 12-5 Big Ten) vs. No.8 Michigan State (23-5, 14-3 Big Ten)

Date/Time – Sunday, March 2, 12:30 p.m.

Arena – Breslin Center (14,759)

Television – CBS (Spero Dedes and Jim Spanarkel)

Radio – Badgers Radio Network (Matt Lepay and Brian Butch), Sirius 83, stream online on iHeartRadio.

Series – Michigan State leads 86-69 (Michigan State leads 50-17 in East Lansing)

Last Meeting – Wisconsin won, 81-66, on January 26, 2024, in Madison

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Twitter: @Badger_Blitz

Point Spread – Michigan State -5.0

Player to Watch: In his last three games against Michigan State, Crowl is averaging 17.3 ppg and 5.3 rpg, going 6-for-9 from 3-point range.

Player to watch: Atkins has reached double figures in scoring 22 times this year, including 16 of last 19, with three 20+ point games. In Big Ten games, he is shooting 32.1 percent from three.

Before the 2001-02 season, Michigan State led the all-time series 63-47. With the arrival of Bo Ryan and Greg Gard in 2001, the Spartans hold a narrow 23-22 lead.

Wisconsin swept the season series against Michigan State last season, marking the Badgers' first home-and-away regular-season sweep of the Spartans since the 2003-04 season.

The Badgers have won their last three games at the Breslin Center. Wisconsin is one of just three teams to record three straight wins at the Breslin Center. Purdue won five in a row (1993-98), and Michigan won three in a row (1992-94). Before this streak, the last time the Badgers won three straight games at MSU was 1961-63 at Jenison Field House.

At least one of the two teams has been ranked in each of the last 44 meetings. The last game in which both were unranked was a 64-53 Wisconsin win on Feb. 11, 2003.

The Badgers have recorded six wins over a top-10 ranked Michigan State team since Ryan and Gard arrived, going 6-10 in such games. Before that 2001-02 season, Wisconsin was 1-13 against Michigan State in such games.

UW has averaged 81.9 points per game, the most since 1970-71. The Badgers have scored at least 80 points in 16 games this season, the most in school history. UW’s offense ranks seventh nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom.

Wisconsin leads the NCAA in free throw percentage, 83.3 percent (465-for-558) at the line. That is on pace to break the NCAA record of 83.0 percent by Villanova in 2020-21. Wisconsin is the current Big Ten recordholder, hitting 81.8 percent in 2010-11.

Wisconsin is 31-1 when holding foes to 70 or fewer points (15-1 this year) since last season

During conference play, the Badgers rank fourth in the B1G in scoring defense (70.9 ppg) and third in field goal percentage defense (42.2 percent).

Wisconsin has already tallied a pair of AP Top-10 wins this season (No.9 Arizona and at No.7 Purdue) and 14 under Gard. Of those, five have come in true road games.

The Spartans have 10 players playing at least 10 minutes per game with nine different players leading the team in scoring through 28 games.

The Spartans are one of three teams in the AP Top 25 (Arizona, Alabama) with seven players scoring at least 7.0 ppg and the only team nationally with 10 players averaging at least 14.6 minutes.

MSU ranks No. 4 nationally in rebound margin (+9.5), No. 16 in defensive rebounds per game (27.79), and No. 19 in rebounds per game (39.82).

MSU is No. 5 nationally in bench points (35.21 ppg) and has received at least 30 points from its bench 22 times in 28 games this season.

Michigan State ranks fourth in the nation in fast break points, averaging 16.64 points per game. The Spartans are averaging 78.2 points per game, and nearly a quarter of the team's points come in transition (21.3 percent, 466 of 2,190). That is the second-highest in Division I, trailing only Milwaukee (21.8 percent).

The last eight days weren’t kind to the University of Wisconsin in its quest to win a piece of the 2024-25 Big Ten Conference championship. We all know about what happened February 22nd at the Kohl Center, blowing a 17-point lead in an eventual overtime loss to Oregon. However, sand kept being spread in the wounds throughout the week.

On Monday, Michigan scored 49 points and won a road game by three at Nebraska. On Tuesday, Tre Holloway’s 65-footer at the buzzer lifted Michigan State over a stunned Maryland. Finally, the Wolverines pulled another one on the fire when Nimari Burnett’s long three-pointer at the buzzer gave Michigan an 84-82 home win over Rutgers on Thursday.

Reverse those results, and Wisconsin controls its path to a conference title instead of sitting two back with three games to go.

Not winning the conference title would be a disappointment for this year’s squad, which believed it had the talent to compete in the league since the summer and could have done so if not for letting some winnable games slip away. However, last weekend, the players got to talk with a group of alumni who caught fire at the right time 25 years ago to deliver something just as memorable.

Six of the 14 players from that team who stunned the country by advancing to the Final Four as a No.8 seed were honored all weekend. While Gard doesn’t know how many stories they told were true or how many facts had been embellished to some degree over two-plus decades, the overarching message was the appreciation for the journey.

“That team was 13-12 and had to win almost every game in order to qualify for the tournament, and then they were able to get the matchups that were very favorable,” Gard said. “Every team has their own journey.

"They didn’t talk about the Final Four (or) the game, it was all about their time here and things that happened in the locker room and on plane trips … The biggest thing is just to enjoy the moment they have here. These moments are fleeting, and before you know it, your time and eligibility are gone.”

After February 5, Wisconsin went 11-4 on its run to the Final Four. The eventual national champion Spartans were the only team that beat them. This Michigan State team does not appear to be as good as that one 25 years ago, largely because they don’t have a dominant scorer and are a poor three-point shooting team (343rd nationally at 29.6).

However, they are a typical Tom Izzo team that dominates the glass, moves the ball exceptionally well, draws fouls, makes over 80 percent from the line, and rotates through many successful, complementary players. One of the standout reasons why the Spartans are so close to a conference title is that Michigan State is first in the league in three-point percentage defense.

Holding teams to 28.8 percent from beyond the perimeter, Michigan State has more Big Ten games holding teams to five or fewer threes (seven) than nine or more (five). Only four teams averaged a point per possession from three against the Spartans, and only Penn State shot better than 38 percent from three.

Wisconsin leads the Big Ten in 3FG Pct (38.0 percent) and 3FGs per game (10.9) during conference play. UW is on pace to shoot (28.0 3FGA) and make (10.1 3FG) more threes than ever since the inception of the 3-point line in 1986-87. It’s the ultimate strength versus strength.

Wisconsin has not beaten a Big Ten team this season with a top-30 rated defensive efficiency. Michigan State is No.5 in that category. I won’t be surprised if Wisconsin wins, but I think the Spartans have something special brewing that they’ll tap into at home.

Worgull’s Prediction: Michigan State by 8

Record: 22-6 (21-7 ATS)

Points off Prediction: 235 (8.4 per game)

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