Wisconsin (19-11, 11-8 Big Ten) at No. 3 Purdue (27-3, 16-3)
Game: Sunday, March 10 at Mackey Arena
Time: 11:30 A.M. CT
Watch: FOX
Listen: 1310 WIBA AM and 101.5 FM (Matt Lepay and Brian Butch on the call); stream online on iHeartRadio
Prediction: Purdue 81, Wisconsin 74
Follow Online: The Badgers' Den
Twitter: @Badger_Blitz
Betting line: Purdue -9.5 (according to ESPN BET)
PRE-GAME NOTES
The Wisconsin Badgers will travel to West Lafayette, Indiana, to face the Purdue Boilermakers in the final game of the regular season.
These two teams were once peers in the Big Ten.
The Boilermakers were narrowly ahead of the Badgers at the top of the conference when they first played back in early February. The Badgers were 16-5 and ranked No. 6 in the AP Poll, but now sit at 19-11, trying to gain some sort of balance heading into the postseason.
Purdue has sat comfortably at the top of the Big Ten since Wisconsin’s nosedive. They’re 12-1 over the last two months and have as good of a chance to win a national championship as any team in the country.
Zach Edey is playing his basketball of the season, likely desperate to escape another disappointing finish in the NCAA Tournament.
Edey scored 18 points on 7-for-13 shooting in his first meeting against the Badgers, which was also the last time he finished with less than 20 points in a game. In the seven games since, he’s averaging 27.4 points, shooting 62.3% from the field
Greg Gard will likely employ his typical Edey strategy — suffocate him with multiple defenders and force Purdue’s supporting cast to win. That’s what Gard tried in their first meeting, which led to superb performances from players like Lance Jones and Braden Smith.
Against Wisconsin, Jones finished with 20 points on 57.1% shooting, which he’s yet to match in any performance since. Smith struggled with turnovers (five) and fouls (four), but still scored 19, including 11 in the first half.
The Badgers will be the first team that Purdue has played in five days. Right before the break, the Boilermakers beat No. 12 Illinois to gain full control of the Big Ten regular season championship.
A mixture of extended time off, plus complacency from no longer playing for anything, could bode well in Wisconsin’s favor.
Purdue’s past six games have included one loss and four single-digit victories. They may be alone atop the Big Ten, but they’re not invincible.
If the Badgers enter with energy and intensity, they could make a statement right as the regular season clock strikes midnight.
Against the best team in the conference, Wisconsin will try to do what’s become seemingly impossible for them — win on the road. They have an 0-5 road record since the start of February, with their last win coming against Minnesota on Jan. 23.
Purdue beat Wisconsin early on in their rut, on Feb. 4, and seemed to have figured out the formula.
After the win, Purdue coach Matt Painter spelled out their defensive strategy in his opening statement. Painter wanted to limit Steven Crowl in the post, limit Wisconsin’s 3-pointers and pressure A.J. Storr when he had possession at the top of the key or wing. He accomplished every single goal.
Crowl was repeatedly double-teamed, finishing with just eight points and even struggled with fouls on the other end. Storr had perhaps his least efficient scoring night of the season, shooting 4-for-15 and scoring 14 points. Meanwhile the Badgers shot just 3-of-19 from 3.
Their strategy didn’t take Tyler Wahl into account, which allowed him to score 20 points and outperform all of his teammates. But it ultimately didn’t matter. The Boilermakers seem to know exactly how to slow the Badgers down.
Given their success the first time, Painter will likely employ a similar game plan this time around.
Storr and Crowl are coming off of standout performances at home against Rutgers, scoring 19 and 17, respectively. But the real driving factor behind the Badgers’ win was their reserves.
John Blackwell added 17, including a superb 9-of-10 shooting from the free-throw line, while Kamari McGee returned from injury and scored 11 points in 10 minutes.
If the Boilermakers limit Wisconsin’s stars as effectively as they did the first time around, the Badgers will absolutely need their bench if they hope to compete.
Ultimately, this game won’t mean anything for the Boilermakers. They’ve already won the Big Ten regular season title, and will be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament regardless. They could sleepwalk through Sunday — but they won’t.
These teams have met each other too many times in important games. Every player and coach involved will treat it like the postseason.
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