Wisconsin has one more chance to shock the country in 2024, with the undisputed top team in the nation coming to Camp Randall Stadium for a Saturday night showdown.
Below are three keys to the game, as well as BadgerBlitz.com staff predictions.
When: Saturday, Nov. 16 (6:30 P.M. CT)
Where: Camp Randall Stadium (capacity 76,057)
All-Time Series: Tied, 3-3 (Wisconsin leads 2-0 in Madison)
TV: NBC (Noah Eagle on play-by-play, Todd Blackledge as the analyst and Kathryn Tappen as the sideline reporter)
Local Radio: Badger Sports Network (Matt Lepay on play-by-play, Mark Tauscher as the analyst, Patrick Herb as the sideline reporter)
Betting line: Oregon -13.5
Projected game-time weather: ~ 47 degrees and overcast
FIRST READ: Success on first down
The Badgers' offense has struggled in nearly every facet at one point or another this season. But they've been particularly inept with the chips stacked against them on third-and-long, as quarterback Braedyn Locke has proven that he can't operate the offense smoothly when it's behind the sticks.
“Everybody talks about the money down and third down. Truthfully, as you look back at it, first down is the most important thing, is getting that thing started," head coach Luke Fickell said this week. “So there's some things we gotta do. We gotta have a better balance. We gotta find ways to make sure that we can loosen some people up. And sometimes that means taking some shots with those things and feeling confident, even if you are in that second-and-10 situation.”
Oregon's defense is incredibly well-rounded and remains loaded with talented players, but it's not quite as daunting as Iowa or Penn State, Wisconsin's previous two opponents. Oregon's defensive third down percentage of .338 checks in at 29th nationally, but the Badgers will have a shot to alter that if they can find success on early downs and set the struggling Locke up with third-and-manageables.
SECOND READ: Disrupt Dillon Gabriel's timing
Oregon's offense, a unit that checks in 11th overall in the nation and 15th in terms of pass yards per-game, is a well-oiled machine. Even if the Badgers stacked up to the Ducks' skill players athletically across the board — which they certainly don't — one must make quarterback Dillon Gabriel uncomfortable if you want to disrupt this offense.
It'll be important to pressure Gabriel all night long. He's a talented quarterback, undoubtedly, but he can't be allowed to simply distribute the ball to his bevy of playmakers unaffected all game. The Badgers must put pressure in his face and force him to make tough throws and split-second decisions.
Though he can run, Gabriel has just 148 rushing yards this fall. His legs are more used as an element of escapability and a way to extend plays. Thus, Wisconsin doesn't have to be as worried as it was in its last game against the shifty Iowa signal-caller Brendan Sullivan. It'll still need to contain Gabriel, but edge players won't need to worry about as many designed runs as they did two weeks ago.
It's also worth noting that although Oregon's right tackle Ajani Cornelius has likely been their least effective pass-blocker, pressuring Gabriel off the strong side could actually play into the lefty quarterback's hands if he's flushed out of the pocket to his left, as that's the more natural way for him to scramble. Either way, the Badgers must find a way to jump-start their lukewarm pass-rush or they won't have much of a shot.
THIRD READ: Create splash on special teams
None of Wisconsin's units are up to par at the moment, but the offense has been particularly lackluster. Thus, if the Badgers are going to pull this upset, points are going to have to come from somewhere else against a Ducks' team that's averaging 35.7 points-per-game. Why not special teams, where Wisconsin has gotten tantalizingly close to breaking a big return for a touchdown this season.
Remember what happened the last time the Badgers hosted the No. 1 team in the nation?
"David Gilreath from the three...25, 30, 35, explodes midfield, a chance to return the opening kickoff for six...he'll take it to the house!"
It's a lot to ask for a moment as cinematic and iconic as Gilreath's 97-yard kickoff return touchdown against Ohio State in 2010. But this game feels as if the Badgers will need some similar special teams splash play to pull this upset.
STAFF PREDICTIONS
STAFF WRITER SEAMUS ROHRER
The line of -13.5 is almost a bit insulting to an Oregon team that's rolled over opponent after opponent and is the only team receiving first-place votes in the AP Poll. Wisconsin, meanwhile, is coming off its worst loss under Fickell and so long as Locke is under center, this team's potential is significantly capped. Oregon dominates from start to finish.
Oregon 35, Wisconsin 10
STAFF WRITER DONNIE SLUSHER
The injuries to receiver Tez Johnson and running back Jordan James will limit Oregon’s offense enough to keep it low-scoring for at least two or three quarters. However, the Ducks’ defense is simply too deep and athletic for Wisconsin’s offense to let them hang around. I expect a tighter first half, then the Badgers will wear out as the game goes on.
Oregon 27, Wisconsin 12
SITE PUBLISHER JON MCNAMARA
I don’t see the magic carrying over from the Kohl Center to Camp Randall. Wisconsin’s last showing was bad and I don’t see things improving against the No. 1 team in the country.
Oregon 35, Wisconsin 10
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