Published Nov 29, 2024
Pre-Snap Read: Badgers host Gophers with Axe, bowl eligibility on the line
Seamus Rohrer  •  BadgerBlitz
Staff
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@seamus_rohrer

There couldn't be more at stake in the regular season finale for Wisconsin. In danger of going trophy-less and losing their bowl eligibility streak, so much is on the line for the Badgers in the Axe Game.

Below are three keys to the game, as well as BadgerBlitz.com staff predictions.

When: Friday, Nov. 29 (11:00 A.M. CT)

Where: Camp Randall Stadium (capacity 76,057)

All-Time Series: Wisconsin leads, 63-62-8 (Wisconsin leads 35-24-6 in Madison)

TV: CBS (Tom McCarthy on play-by-play, Jay Feely as the analyst and Tiffany Blackmon as the sideline reporter)

Local Radio: Badger Sports Network (Matt Lepay on play-by-play, Mark Tauscher as the analyst, Patrick Herb as the sideline reporter)

Betting line: Minnesota - 1

Projected game-time weather: ~ 20 degrees with 10-20 mph winds

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FIRST READ: Take shots early and often

Wisconsin can't be afraid to go after Minnesota's rock solid pass defense. It needs to soften up the Gophers' secondary with some deep shots early, because if Minnesota feels it can crowd the line of scrimmage, the Badgers will undoubtably be stuck in the mud.

When Braedyn Locke looked deep against Nebraska, good things happened more often than not. He connected on a 24-yard touchdown pass to Bryson Green as well as a 58-yard touchdown pass to Vinny Anthony. Both were perfectly thrown passes, and while Locke has struggled at times with his accuracy, that hasn't applied to his deep ball. The quarterback has a tendency to drop it right in the bucket.

Anthony, with his blazing speed, and Green, with his physical frame and contested-catch ability, make for excellent downfield targets. This offense just needs to utilize them. Minnesota's cornerbacks, Bucknell transfer Ethan Robinson and four-year Gopher Justin Walley, have both been stellar in coverage, allowing a combined reception percentage of about 53 percent. Still, the Badgers should test them immediately, both to send a message and make Minnesota divert resources to the back end.

In another lethargic year for Wisconsin's offense, the deep ball has quietly been a strength of this unit when it actually makes an effort to stretch the field. This game feels like the Badgers will need to hit on a few field-flipping plays so as to not rely on long, methodical drives.

SECOND READ: Dial up creative blitzes 

Try as it might, Wisconsin simply can't get pressure with just four. Its outside linebackers don't win one-on-one matchups, don't collapse the pocket and don't create havoc. There's no real pure pass-rusher on this team; someone you can just unleash on third down who pins his ears back and hunts the quarterback relentlessly.

Thus, the Badgers need to find creative ways to get into the backfield. Mike Tressel's designed blitzes didn't get home against Nebraska. Oftentimes, he sent inside linebackers on stunts through the A and B gaps, but the blitz itself took too long to develop. Tressel should consider getting his safeties and cornerbacks involved in blitz packages, because the Badgers just aren't getting into the backfield quick enough even when they do bring heat.

Minnesota quarterback Max Brosmer has actually done a decent job taking care of the football while under duress (just two interceptions thrown while under pressure, per Pro Football Focus) but his completion percentage still drops significantly when the heat is cranked up. Wisconsin needs to blitz Brosmer, and it needs to do so out of exotic packages and with different personnel.

THIRD READ: Unleash Darrion Dupree 

It wouldn't surprise me if true freshman tailback Darrion Dupree takes more carries than Tawee Walker. That has yet to happen this season, but over the past three weeks, Dupree has looked like the better back. He's averaging 5.9 yards-per-carry, while Walker is averaging 4.0 yards-per-carry in that time frame. Quite frankly, he's been more explosive and looks more dynamic in open space. And while Walker's power is his defining characteristic, Dupree has noticeably done an excellent job falling forwards and pushing the pile as well.

What better time to unleash Dupree than against your bitter rival? If the freshman plays well, the Gophers know they have the unenviable task of trying to contain him at least two more times in his career.

It also makes sense schematically. Dupree is a highly versatile back; he can line up all over the formation and is an adept pass-catcher. Wisconsin has only deployed him in the slot for two snaps this season, per PFF, but in a must-win game, everything should be on the table. Show Minnesota something it hasn't seen on tape yet and get the ball in the hands of your sleeping giant of a playmaker on offense.

STAFF PREDICTIONS

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STAFF WRITER SEAMUS ROHRER

We're at the point where, on a week-to-week basis, I have no idea how the Badgers are going to play in any phase of the game. The magnitude of this contest cannot be overstated, but I just don't know if that's going to be enough to galvanize a team that's lost four straight. Meanwhile, Minnesota has been feisty all season long and nearly just upset Penn State. Give me the Gophers in a close loss that snaps Wisconsin's bowl streak and tees Luke Fickell up for the most critical offseason of his career.

Minnesota 27, Wisconsin 23

STAFF WRITER DONNIE SLUSHER

As with most rivalry games, all perceived advantages and disadvantages will disappear. Records, home field, past accomplishments, none of it will matter. It's gonna come down to the team that can make a few key plays when it matters. One of them has a turnover-prone quarterback and might be missing their best player in safety Hunter Wohler. I'll take the other team.

Minnesota 21, Wisconsin 19

SITE PUBLISHER JON MCNAMARA 

Wisconsin's bowl streak ends in front of a half-full crowd at Camp Randall. Sunday will begin one of the most important off-seasons in the program's history.

Minnesota 28, Wisconsin 17

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