MADISON - If Wisconsin has any hope of making a bowl game this season, today's matchup against Purdue is virtually a must win.

BadgerBlitz.com breaks down its three keys to the game before the Badgers take the field against the Boilermakers on Saturday, Oct. 22 (2:30 P.M. CT, ESPN).

When: Saturday, Oct. 22

Where: Camp Randall Stadium (capacity 75,822)

All-Time Series: Wisconsin, 51-29-8

Series in Madison: Wisconsin leads, 28-12-5, in Madison

TV: ESPN (Bob Wichusen doing play-by-play, Dan Orlovsky as the analyst and Kris Budden as the sideline reporter)

Local Radio: Badger Sports Network (Mike Heller doing play-by-play, Mike Lucas and Mark Tauscher as analysts, Patrick Herb as the sideline reporter)

Betting line: Wisconsin -1.5

A week after lining up against Keon Coleman and Jayden Reed, Wisconsin's secondary has its toughest test of the season against quarterback Aidan O'Connell and wide receiver Charlie Jones.

Through seven games, Jones has racked up 62 catches for 753 yards and nine touchdowns. He's been a star since arriving in Purdue this season after transferring from Iowa.

Part of the recipe in the loss a week ago to Michigan State were some blown coverages in the back end. If some of those issues persist, Jones and O'Connell should have no problem having a big day. A year ago, Jim Leonhard held wideout David Bell to six catches for 33 yards. If Jones can be held in check the same way, it would go a long way toward a Wisconsin win.

Wisconsin found the end zone on two of its first three possessions against Michigan State. During the first possession of the game, the Badgers pieced together an 11-play, 63-yard drive to quickly go up 7-0. Two drives later, the offense rebounded from an interception with a nine-play, 75-yard scoring drive.

From there, UW wouldn't score again until there were two minutes left in the game. The score was a timely touchdown to force overtime, but sandwiched in between were six straight punts. That is inexcusable.

Part of the lasting memory from the game are a coverage bust on a wide receiver pass and 72-yard catch and run from Michigan State tight end Maliq Carr. But if the offense ekes out even three more points, UW likely gets on its flight with a win.

Quarterback Graham Mertz often plays his best football when working in a clean pocket. No different than most other quarterbacks, but it is especially true with Mertz. Part of the overarching issues for the team has been inconsistent offensive line play.

Looking back to the win over Northwestern, the offense gave up just two pressure and no quarterback hits. That turned into a career day for Mertz and 515 total yards from the offense.

Against Michigan State, the offensive line allowed eight pressures and was tagged with five penalties with consecutive false starts coming on a drive to tie the game and send it to overtime.

The starting group may get switched up once again with Riley Mahlman and Tyler Beach healthy this week, but the group has to be better.

Once again I am left incredibly confused by the betting line. Despite a losing record, the Badgers find themselves favored. I just don't get it.

I can picture Wisconsin coming out and playing inspired football after a loss. I can also see it come out and play a sloppy brand of football on both ends. The inconsistency has been an issue all season and against a Purdue offense that should pose problems through the air, look for Wisconsin to fall to the Boilermakers for the first time since 2003.

Purdue 35, Wisconsin 20

Purdue's offense packs a punch with a veteran quarterback who knows where to go with the football. Basically, he's the anti-Graham Mertz, who continues to toil in mediocrity as Wisconsin's quarterback. Michigan State has one of the worst pass defenses in the Big Ten, yet the Badgers managed only 131 yards through the air. Purdue is third in the Big Ten in interceptions, which is bad news for the UW's erratic quarterback.

Everything about this matchup looks bad for Wisconsin, a team without an identity that has trouble finding rhythm because of missed assignments, penalties, and turnovers.

Purdue 35, Wisconsin 21

I still don't feel comfortable picking the Badgers with how inconsistent they've been in every phase. That said, their backs are against the wall and Jim Leonhard losing in his home debut would be disastrous. This team has played with more fire since the coaching change, and they'll make enough plays to edge the boilermakers on homecoming weekend.

Wisconsin 31, Purdue 27

_________________________________________________

*Chat about this article in The Badgers' Den

*Check out our videos, interviews, and Q&As on our YouTube channel

*Subscribe and listen to the BadgerBlitz.com podcast (as seen on Apple, Google, Spotify and wherever you listen to podcasts)

*Follow us on Twitter: @McNamaraRivals, @TheBadgerNation, @RaulV45, @pete_brey12, @seamus_rohrer

*Like us on Facebook