No. 9 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Baylor: Previewing the Bears with Sic 'Em Sports
Another big challenge awaits No. 9 seed Wisconsin as one of the country's best teams stands in the way of a Sweet 16 berth.
Head coach Greg Gard and his Badgers face off with No. 1 seed Baylor during the second round of the NCAA Tournament inside Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Ind. on Sunday afternoon (1:40 p.m. CT, CBS).
UW (18-12 overall) will need to contain a potent Baylor (23-2) offense that ranks among the nation's best in three-point shooting percentage, points per game and several of KenPom's metrics.
Helping BadgerBlitz.com dive deeper into Baylor, the top-ranked team in the South region, is Kevin Lonnquist from Rivals.com's Sic 'Em Sports.
1. Baylor has been fantastic this season, losing only two games and dispensing of No. 16 seed Hartford on Friday. How was this team developed this season to be one of the best in men's college basketball?
Kevin Lonnquist: Well it really started last year when the Bears held the No. 1 ranking for seven weeks and had a school record and Big 12-record 23-game winning streak. They then won at Kansas for the first time. Everything pointed to them being a No. 1 seed last year until the NCAA tournament was canceled.
This is a veteran team between AP Big 12 player of the year and first-team All-American Jared Butler and other All-American guards Davion Mitchell (Auburn transfer) and MaCio Teague (UNC-Ashville transfer). They just know each other so well. While the Bears shoot a great percentage, the defense led the charge. Until the pause, more than half of their opponent's turnover were on-ball steals that Baylor used in its transition game. They were expectedly rusty coming off the pause. The loss at Kansas and then just not being in sync defensively. That led to them getting ousted by Oklahoma State in the Big 12 semifinals.
It was Hartford. But to me, they did look a little more like the team between late November and early February.
2. Looking at Baylor, it leads the nation in three-point shooting (41.4%) and are fourth in points per game (84.2). That's on top of being ranked third and fourth in KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency and offensive rebound percentage, respectively. Who and what makes the Bears so potent on that side of the court?
KL: Butler, Teague and Mitchell are all in double figures at 17.0, 16.4 and 14.0 (points per game), respectively. Baylor's spacing allows for that extra pass. I have a good shot. You have a great shot. They've rotated all season as to who leads in scoring. Mitchell's emergence on offense has made a difference.
The offensive rebounding part comes from senior Mark Vital, who does all the little things to keep possessions alive.
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3. Defensively, Baylor gives up 66 points per contest and has forced opponents, on average, to commit 17.6 turnovers per game. KenPom ranks the Bears third in the nation in defensive turnover percentage. What does the program do so well in those areas to give others troubles? How do you feel they'll defend Wisconsin on Sunday?
KL: I expect the Bears to stick with their man defense like they have all season. They will switch a lot. However, I do expect Teague to pick up D'Mitrik Trice. Mitchell is arguably the best on-ball defender in the country. Don't look for any zone.
But the turnovers is a result of them just creating consistent ball pressure. They will occasionally trap. However, they trust each other will communicate. Until recently, they were really good in getting back in transition defense. That's one area where they struggled against the Cowboys. I'll be interested to see how that looks Sunday should it be a part of the game.
4. Where do you feel Baylor will have an edge against Wisconsin?
KL: It's going to be a case of Baylor just making the ball go faster than how the Badgers can react to it. When you have three legitimate scorers, you can't just lock down on one. I think Baylor's athleticism is going to be an advantage just because of their quickness. Just have this feeling Baylor will make it tough on Wisconsin's guard to develop a rhythm. Take nothing away from Wisconsin because the Badgers are typically a very high IQ team.
5. Vice-versa, where do you feel the Badgers could give the Bears some issues as both teams battle for a Sweet 16 berth?
KL: I think the one thing is if Greg Gard wants to attack Baylor in the paint with Micah Potter and then some help and make that a plan, that could give the Bears some trouble. Baylor has had issues defending the low post. It started at Kansas when David McCormack scored 22.
Most coaches believe one of the ways to beat Baylor is to neutralize the transition game off the turnovers. As I mentioned above, that was a big part of things. When Baylor came back from the pause, it wasn't a big thing. I think Wisconsin would like to keep this in mid-60s to low 70s to give itself a chance.
I do expect Baylor to win this just because I think the week off to practice before the tournament was important for it. But this is the NCAA tournament, so who knows.