As the analytics-focused movement has come to the forefront in strategy development, college basketball programs have started to shift their offensive and defensive strategies in accordance with the numbers.
Wisconsin has been no stranger to this trend, particularly the emphasis on shots at the rim and three-point attempts over mid-range jumpers. The reliance on three-pointers is nothing new to fans, as the Badgers have made every effort to put as many shooters on the floor over the years.
A look at the 2019-2020 trends for Wisconsin’s shooting data indicates that this team followed the “rim and threes” mentality and rode this strategy to offensive success in the first truly five-out capable offense UW has fielded since 2015.
When analyzing where Wisconsin got its points, it’s clear that the five-shooter offense was successful in getting a high fraction of points from deep. The graph below shows the running average point fraction from free throws, two-point field goals and three-point field goals as the season progressed.
Wisconsin finished the season with nearly 40 percent of its points coming from three-pointers. This was good for 21st nationally, a significant improvement from the 2018-2019 season where it ranked 206th nationally in this metric.
Another key part of understanding point distribution is efficiency. It’s straightforward to measure efficiency from long range and translate that to points per shot. But let’s take a look at how they fared on two-pointers.
Wisconsin got 45 percent of its points from two-point range, and shot 48.3 percent to get those points. This ranked 219th nationally; a low mark, which was primarily driven by poor shooting near the rim. The graph below shows shot efficiency as a function of distance from the basket. A majority of Wisconsin’s two-point attempts came within eight feet of the basket. This is an optimal shot distribution.
Unfortunately, Wisconsin didn’t convert these looks at a very high rate, especially between four and eight feet, where the Badgers came in below one point per shot.
Let’s take a look even further and filter this data to the starting backcourt.
Brad Davison and D'Mitrik Trice trended similarly in this analysis. Davison was slightly more efficient from two-point land, while Trice barely nudged him out from deep. This is likely due to two factors: First, Trice clearly struggled at the rim due to being an undersized guard. Second, Trice was also tasked with a majority of the late shot clock attempts, which are typically rushed, well defended and off-the-dribble. Considering these factors, it’s not a surprise that Trice’s efficiency numbers trailed behind Davison’s.
Let’s see what this data looks like for the wing players, who weren’t tasked with any late shot-clock creation.
Doing the same exercise for the wing players, there are a few trends worth noting. As expected, Brevin Pritzl was most efficient from long twos and threes, but less efficient than the other two everywhere else. Kobe King was very skilled within 16 feet, especially at the rim where he netted 1.35 points per shot. King’s ability from the mid-range was also very noteworthy, posting a near-unicorn level 1.14 points per shot from 12 to 16 feet.
Looking at the front-court data, a few things are clear. First, both are very efficient at the rim, as expected. Micah Potter has a quick leap and Nate Reuvers has good touch around the basket. One feature of the Reuvers data is his inefficiency from 12 to 16 feet. This is frequently an area of the floor where Reuvers likes to reverse-pivot into a jumper, which he doesn’t hit at a very high rate. He does tend to draw fouls in this spot, which is a good outcome of this move that’s not captured in this graph. Potter had a very efficient shooting season from deep, which is on display here as he was around 1.35 points per shot from deep.
Looking at the overall picture, it’s clear Wisconsin has gotten back to the traditional principles of the five-shooter offense that has been a staple in Madison. While they struggled at the rim due to size and physical limitations from Trice and Pritzl, they recovered some of the lost efficiency from mid-range and deep. Look for Wisconsin to focus on improving efficiency at the rim next season while maintaining success from the mid-range and from deep.
Data Sources
1) SportRadar College Basketball Play by Play API Feeds
2) KenPom.com