Wisconsin jumps back into conference play this weekend when it heads down to West Lafayette, a place it has historically done well, in hopes of knocking off a divisional foe.
UW (3-3 overall, 1-2 Big Ten) owns 14 consecutive victories over No. 25 Purdue (4-2, 2-1) heading into the Saturday afternoon matinee inside Ross-Ade Stadium (2 p.m. CT, BTN). BadgerBlitz.com brings forth its “Five Burning Questions” for another contest that will likely be won at the line of scrimmage and by who turns the ball over less.
1) How will Wisconsin challenge Purdue's passing attack?
Purdue enters the contest averaging 334 passing yards per game, good for 10th in the FBS. Quarterback Aidan O'Connell has completed 68.6% of this throws for 1,118 yards and six touchdowns.
Four Boilermakers hold 20 or more receptions heading into Saturday's contest. The big name, of course, is first-team All-Big Ten wide receiver David Bell. The 6-foot-2, 205-pound junior has reeled in 38 catches for 679 yards and four touchdowns. He ranks first in the Big Ten in receiving yards per game, second in the conference in overall receiving yards and third in receptions.
BadgerBlitz.com detailed what defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard and cornerback Caesar Williams said about Bell, the Indianapolis native, earlier this week.
Wisconsin has allowed some big gains against Penn State, Notre Dame, Michigan, and even Army. That includes Nittany Lions wide receiver Jahan Dotson catching five balls for 102 yards and a touchdown in the season opener.
Despite that, the Badgers still rank ninth in the nation, first in the Big Ten, in passing yards allowed (161.5) and 20th in the FBS in passing efficiency defense (112.6). The unit overall has played well, though it has been prone to allow some big chunk plays at times. Can the Badgers thwart a Boilermakers offense that threw for 386 and 326 yards against them in 2018 and 2019, respectively?
One way to counteract a dynamic passing attack is cranking up the pressure in the backfield. Wisconsin averages two sacks per game, but Pro Football Focus credits the program with 86 pressures through six games (about 14.3 per outing), led by outside linebacker Nick Herbig (17), inside linebacker Jack Sanborn (15) and nose tackle Keeanu Benton (10). Consider UW faced run-dominant Army last week, and those stats look more impressive.
O'Connell has thrown for over 370 yards in back-to-back games, but that goes along with five interceptions on the season. Purdue has allowed 15 sacks through two games. Can Herbig, inside linebackers Sanborn and Leo Chenal and linemen Benton and Matt Henningsen force some errant plays?
2) Can Wisconsin contain Purdue defensive end George Karlaftis?
The official stats for George Karlaftis undersell the impact he has had on this Purdue defense that ranks fifth in the nation in points per game (14.0) and 13th in total defense (294.8) entering Saturday's game.
The junior defensive end comes into the divisional clash against Wisconsin with 22 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, three sacks and eight quarterback hurries. However, PFF now credits him with 30 total pressures in six games. Against Iowa alone last weekend, the service reports 12 total pressures.
Wisconsin starting left tackle Tyler Beach worked against Karlaftis when the latter was a true freshman during the 2019 season. The redshirt senior lineman noted the Boilermaker is "faster, stronger, smarter."
"He works inside guys, he works a long arm to the chest," Beach said on Monday. "He’ll slap your hands if you're leaning and then if you're oversetting, he’ll jump inside. He's the type of guy that is on and consistent every play.
"He's not somebody that'll take a play off, and you got to be ready for every single move because he's always got something in his back pocket that he could be using.”
Wisconsin will also need to contend with undersized but athletic defensive tackle Branson Deen (6.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks). That being said, it will be a long day if Karlaftis overwhelms UW's pass blocking attempts.
3) Will either team create takeaways on Saturday?
Both teams come into this game in negative turnover margin. Purdue has created six takeaways but coughed up the ball eight times (six interceptions, two fumbles). Wisconsin ranks dead last in the FBS in both overall turnover margin (-11) and average per game. That includes nine picks and six fumbles lost.
The Boilermakers' revamped defense created four turnovers last week against the now-No. 11 Hawkeyes in its upset win in Iowa City. However, GoldandBlack.com's Tom Dienhart dissected those numbers and showed Purdue's struggles with generating turnovers earlier this week.
"It did get four takeaways last weekend, but going into that game, they were last in America," Dienhart told BadgerBlitz.com on Wednesday. "They only had two takeaways all year. They still haven't recovered a fumble. And I'll be honest with you, Jake, against Iowa, three of the interceptions came very late in the game. They really weren't that consequential, so really Purdue has had only two significant takeaways this year in my mind."
Wisconsin -- which has allowed 11 sacks in two games -- needs to protect the ball on the road. Keeping Mertz upright will be an objective that helps in this regard.
UW listed starting right tackle Logan Bruss as questionable this week on its preliminary status report. Head coach Paul Chryst provided an update on Thursday morning when asked what the redshirt senior has been able to perform in practices this week and if he foresees the lineman to play against Purdue.
"He's been able to have more, so certainly hopeful," Chryst said.
Update: Oct. 22: Correctly noting UW has allowed 11 sacks through six games.
4) Can Wisconsin's passing attack become more consistent to complement a re-emerging ground game?
Perhaps a question that piggybacks off No. 3, and one that will linger for the rest of the season going forward, is if Wisconsin's aerial attack will find ways to hit on plays more frequently and not just be sporadic in its effectiveness.
UW enters Saturday's game 117th in the FBS in passing yards per game (161.7) and 126th in passing efficiency (102.2). Quarterback Graham Mertz has completed 55.6% of his throws for 893 yards with two touchdowns to seven interceptions.
I firmly believe Wisconsin has the receiving targets to be viable threats with wide receivers Danny Davis, Kendric Pryor and Chimere Dike, along with tight end Jake Ferguson. Even in the last couple of games, the shots downfield have been there but not fully capitalized upon. Opportunities for bigger plays via Mertz's arm have also been available in games past that were missed as well.
I'm not sure if we'll get answers this week or next with Purdue and Iowa back-to-back to end the month of October. Homing in on the Boilermakers' defense, in particular, it allows just 178.5 yards per game, good for second in the Big Ten and 19th in the nation. It also ranks fifth in the FBS, third in the conference, in passing efficiency defense (103.4).
5) Can Wisconsin make it 15 straight over Purdue?
Wisconsin has won 14 straight matchups over Purdue dating back to the 2004 season and that heralded Scott Starks scoop and score off a Kyle Orton fumble in a 20-17 upset victory. Compounding this stat, the Badgers have not lost to the Boilermakers inside Ross-Ade Stadium since 1997.
That year, Purdue won 45-20, thanks to 559 total yards on 11 yards per play and sprinting off to a 21-0 lead early in the first quarter. Quarterback Billy Dicken threw for 311 yards and three touchdowns, while Wisconsin signal caller Mike Samuel threw two interceptions on the road. Boilermakers running back Ed Watson ran for 82 yards -- accentuated heavily on a 75-yard touchdown run in the first quarter -- on nine carries with three total scores.
Wisconsin owns the all-time series by a 50-29-8 mark, and even when on the road, UW edges Purdue by a 22-17-3 tally. Three seasons ago, the Badgers came close to falling in West Lafayette, but clawed out a 47-44 triple overtime win.
At some point, UW's continual reign over Purdue will snap. Is 2021 the year it happens?