Published Nov 14, 2024
By The Numbers: Analyzing Wisconsin's matchup with No. 9 Arizona
Seamus Rohrer  •  BadgerBlitz
Staff
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@seamus_rohrer

Wisconsin will host Arizona in its first marquee game of the 2024-2025 campaign on Friday night at the Kohl Center. The Badgers will look to pick up their first Quad 1 win of the year while getting revenge for the Wildcats' blowout victory over the Badgers in Tucson last season. `

Below, BadgerBlitz.com breaks down the key statistics and trends that will dictate the game in Madison.

Writers note: Many stats in this article are courtesy of KenPom.com.

Arizona shot 58.3 percent against UW last season 

Let's start with what went wrong last year. The Wildcats hit 58.3 percent of their shots (35-of-60) against the Badgers last season in Tucson. Arizona scored at will in both halves, getting all five starters into double figures. Now, both teams shot very effectively from downtown — the Badgers hit 47.6 percent of their threes, while Arizona hit 46.2 of its shots from deep. But Wisconsin was pummeled by the Wildcats' bigs, and the extra attention that required in the paint allowed for plenty of open looks from long range.

Three combined returning starters

Arizona's talent and scoring potency hasn't changed all that much in a year, but its roster certainly has. Only one of its five starters from last season's matchup returns: shooting guard Caleb Williams. He's obviously a critical piece, as Wisconsin struggled immensely to contain him as he went for 20 points, seven rebounds and five assists last season. Love is off to a quieter start this year, averaging 13.5 points through two games, but the fifth-year senior hasn't been asked to do all that much in two straight blowouts over Quad 4 teams.

For the Badgers, just Steven Crowl and Max Klesmit return to seek revenge on the Wildcats. Wisconsin does return most of its bench, and this year John Blackwell — who led the Badgers in scoring in Tucson with 17 points, including 4-of-5 from deep — is a starter.

Arizona averages 14.8 seconds per offensive possession

The Wildcats' offensive tempo is currently the 26th-fastest in the nation, and that will be a big adjustment for Wisconsin given the three teams it's played. While Arizona's offensive possessions average 14.8 seconds, the Badgers first three opponents averaged 19.3, 18.3 and 18.1 seconds, respectively. The Wildcats like to push the pace, meaning the Badgers will have to be excellent in their defensive switching and rotations.

The Wildcats have shot just 32 percent from three 

It's a very small sample size, as Arizona has only played two games. Still, if those two games are any indication, three-pointers may not be nearly as big of a factor for the Wildcats come Friday night. Their 32.0 percentage from downtown ranks 198th nationally, and just 24.6 percent of their points have come from three-pointers. The guards Jaden Bradley and Caleb Love are both liable to get hot from deep at any minute, of course, and those two have actually shot the three with solid efficiency, they're just not taking that many. Wisconsin, meanwhile, has put a bigger emphasis on launching threes this year. It'll be interesting to see the disparity from deep on Friday night.

Arizona has an offensive rebound percentage of 51.2

Arizona's offensive rebounding mark of 51.2 percent is good for third nationally. Granted, the Wildcats have played Canisius and Old Dominion, who aren't exactly loaded with height. Still, Arizona has two seven-footers — namely 7-foot-2 Montiejus Krivas — who have dominated on the glass early this year. Wisconsin has rebounded well on the defensive glass, currently ranked 27th nationally in that category. Still, this will be a battle down low, meaning Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter need to have a big post presence.

Wisconsin has shot 92.5 percent from the free throw line

This number seems pretty unsustainable, but the Badgers have been highly efficient from the charity stripe through three games. Arizona has a daunting front court, but good things happen when the Badgers drive the basketball and force the issue at the rim. Wisconsin has scored 49 points at the line through three games, and it needs to get dribble penetration from the likes of John Blackwell and John Tonje against the Wildcats.

Steven Crowl's 10 assists to 8 turnovers

It's no secret that Wisconsin wants Crowl to be the nucleus of its offense. Especially given their recent point guard-by-committee approach, the Badgers want a variety of facilitators on the floor but Crowl has been the top option thus far. He leads the team with 10 assists, but also leads with eight turnovers. Wisconsin wants to pitch the ball to the big man in the post and let him find shooters out of double teams, but he'll need to take care of the rock come Friday night.

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