Buy or Sell: Week 9 Storylines vs Penn State

Wisconsin seeks its first big-time win of the Luke Fickell era when No. 3 Penn State comes to town for a Saturday night showdown under the Camp Randall lights.

As kickoff draws nearer, BadgerBlitz.com football beat writers Seamus Rohrer and Donnie Slusher will decide if they're "buying" or "selling" on various storylines surrounding the Wisconsin football program.

MIKE TRESSEL'S DEFENSE PROVES IT'S LEGIT AGAINST AN OFFENSE LITTERED WITH WEAPONS

ROHRER: Buy.

The two-headed monster of Nick Singelton and Kaytron Allen in the backfield. One of the best tight ends in the country in Tyler Warren. A talented quarterback in Drew Allar who's taken legitimate strides with a new play-caller. Penn State is awash with talent on offense for coordinator Andy Kotelnicki.

This is the 10th-ranked total offense in the nation. Wisconsin has faced talented units in Alabama and USC, but Penn State is the most well-rounded with a passing game and rushing attack that both rank in the top-30, respectively. This is quite the challenge for a Wisconsin defense that's hit its stride in recent weeks.

In Penn State's last game, USC had some early defensive success disguising coverages, including one play that led to a bad Allar interception. That was one of the key ways the Badgers' confused Rutgers' quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis two weeks ago, and Mike Tressel will undoubtably look to do the same come Saturday night.

Still, this Nittany Lions' offense is not to be trifled with. Kotelnicki's designs can leave defenders' heads spinning. Allar, meanwhile, has matured before our eyes. His 4th-and-10 conversion on the game-tying drive in Los Angeles was an "If Mahomes did that" display of improvisation and arm talent.

Then again, Wisconsin is the best defense Penn Sate has faced all season. The Badgers are notably better in coverage than the Trojans, and their front seven has tightened up in recent weeks.

Whether or not the Badgers pull off the upset, I believe Tressel's unit will play well behind a raucous home crowd and prove that it's made legitimate strides. That won't equate to the near domination of recent weeks, but Wisconsin plays Penn State tight, proving its defense is the real deal in the process.

SLUSHER: Sell, kind of.

The key to Wisconsin’s defensive success over the past three games has been how they’ve stopped the run. They played three run-first Big Ten teams in a row and made each offense look lost, surrendering a total of 16 points in this stretch.

The success should continue on Saturday, especially given the Nittany Lions’ recent rushing struggles. They averaged 251 rushing yards per game during their first four games, but have only logged a total of 126 over the last two.

Part of the disparity could be attributed to a weaker slate of opponents early on, or Singleton’s injury, but their running game just hasn’t looked very explosive. Their longest run over the past two weeks went for 19 yards, and came from Allar.

I expect another dominant defensive performance against the run.

But the difference between playing Purdue, Rutgers or Northwestern and playing Penn State is that the Nittany Lions have a quarterback who doesn’t need a run game to succeed.

Allar is one of the best quarterbacks in the Big Ten, and arguably the country. If he’s comfortable, he’ll sit in the pocket like a statue and dissect Tressel’s defense one play at a time, which is why it’s imperative for the defense to generate some sort of pressure.

Alabama’s Jalen Milroe and USC’s Miller Moss were comfortable 90% of the time and took full advantage.

Wisconsin’s defensive line obviously looked better against the inferior offenses of the past three weeks, but I still saw too many big-play opportunities that those quarterbacks simply didn’t know how to take advantage of. Allar won’t give them the same luxury.

I have faith in Wisconsin’s secondary and their ability to stay with Penn State’s weapons, but they can only cover for so long.

THE BADGERS LIMIT THE IMPACT OF DEFENSIVE END ABDUL CARTER

ROHRER: Sell

Abdul Carter is not a man I would bet against right now. He got off to a cooler start to the season, with just one sack and four pressures through the first three games. He has three sacks and 16 pressures across the past three games, as he's hit his stride at Penn State's halfway point.

Wisconsin's pass protection has been good, and more specifically tackles Jack Nelson and Riley Mahlman have played very well. They've combined to allow just 12 pressures — two for sacks — in 432 pass-protection snaps, per Pro Football Focus.

Still, Carter presents an entirely different problem. He's a shoe-in first-round pick at this point. He's currently ranked No. 3 on Mel Kiper's 2025 NFL Draft Big Board. PFF has him at No. 20. Carter is one of the elite talents in the sport. He'll find a way to get his, even against an elite Badgers' tackle tandem.

SLUSHER: Buy.

Based on the success of the offensive line over the past three games, especially at tackle, I have faith in their ability to at least limit Carter. Mahlman and Nelson have played some of the most consistently great football of their career and will be the best tackles that Carter has faced in a few weeks.

The question is whether or not the Badgers can slow Carter down enough to still effectively run their offense.

We saw with play caller Phil Longo’s early game plan against Alabama that their attitude changes when facing stronger defensive lines. They were dodging the pass rush by throwing the ball almost instantly, and I expect a similar strategy against Carter and Co.

The Nittany Lion front will no-doubt make it tougher for Locke to continue completing deep passes to Vinny Anthony, who has become the Badgers’ leading receiver over the past three games with 314 yards on 24.2 per reception.

They’ll need to throw a few of those haymakers throughout the course of the game to keep up with Penn State’s offense. But with the presence of Carter, it’s gonna be much tougher for Locke to comfortably sit in the pocket.

If they can be effective throwing the ball quickly, and the tackles come close to replicating their recent success, Carter’s impact could be mitigated.

WISCONSIN COVERS THE SPREAD

ROHRER: Buy.

I'm sold on this being a close game. I think the Badgers can smell it — all of it. The first defining win of Fickell's tenure. The program's first win over a ranked opponent since 2021. A place in the national limelight that hasn't seemed to shine in Madison in years.

Now, I'm far from sold that Wisconsin will win. I believe it absolutely can — but that's different than will. Still, with the line at Penn State -6.5? I would back this Badgers team to give the Nittany Lions hell for four quarters and lose by no more than four points.

The home crowd should help in that regard. So should the nighttime kickoff. There's something more electric about when the anticipation brews all day, and special things have happened in Camp Randall Stadium after dark.

Finally, Penn State may be the No. 3 team in the nation, but it hasn't exactly looked dominant. It doesn't strike fear into you the same way other teams near the top of the AP Poll do. Regardless of the outcome, the Wisconsin keeps it close on a huge Saturday night in Madison.

SLUSHER: Sell.

I know that weird things happen in Camp Randall at night, or at least fans like to say that in hopes of it meaning something. But, as Fickell said earlier this week, outside factors don’t really matter once the ball is kicked off.

“We talked about it last week, of payback, redemption, and the way we played last year. And you talk about those things, but I'd say, once that ball's kicked off, none of that matters. And so people will talk about it this week, in some light, but once that ball's kicked off, none of that matters. And we have to continue to focus on the things that matter,” Fickell said during his Monday press conference.

And when the ball is kicked off, everybody watching the game will see that the talent disparity is simply too great in order for there to be a real upset.

The Badgers should be able to hang around for a while, possibly even until the fourth quarter. But I believe Allar will make enough plays to push them ahead, and the Carter-led defensive front will make Locke a little bit too uncomfortable.