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Published Oct 11, 2024
Buy or Sell: Week 7 Storylines vs. Rutgers
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Seamus Rohrer and Donnie Slusher
Staff Writers

Wisconsin will look to move to 6-0 all time against Rutgers this weekend, a program it's never lost to.

As kickoff draws nearer, BadgerBlitz.com football beat writers Seamus Rohrer and Donnie Slusher will decide if they're "buying" or "selling" on various storylines surrounding the Wisconsin football program.

WISCONSIN CONTAINS KYLE MONANGAI

ROHRER: Sell.

Kyle Monangai is approaching the tier of running back where "containing" him might mean holding him to just under 100 all-purpose yards. That's exactly what Nebraska managed to do last week, and the tailback's 96 yards (78 rushing, 18 receiving) weren't enough to get Rutgers past the Cornhuskers. It was also the first game this season in which he was held out of the end zone.

Monangai is due for a bounce-back week for several reasons. First and foremost, Nebraska boasts the No. 9 rushing defense in the entire country. The same cannot be said for the Badgers, who've struggled with their run fits through nearly half a season. Jake Chaney and Jaheim Thomas will need to play the game of their respective lives in order to bottle Monangai up.

Rutgers also has a deeply experienced, cohesive offensive line that will be playing in the friendly confines of SHI Stadium. Wisconsin's defensive line, namely Ben Barten, had its flashes against Purdue, but it takes more than flashes to stymie a rugged, relentless rushing attack.

SLUSHER: Sell.

For all of the preseason attention on Wisconsin’s defensive line, they’ve mostly exceeded expectations. They haven’t been the dumpster fire I somewhat expected after James Thompson’s injury.

But, frankly, they haven’t really been tested.

The two teams that have beaten the Badgers, USC and Alabama, both had pass-first offenses. Purdue was a run-first team, but most of their runs went outside of the tackles and implicated the linebackers more than the line.

The only teams that have attempted a traditional, up-the-middle running approach against the Badgers were their first two opponents, Western Michigan and South Dakota. Neither of those teams had necessarily big days on the ground, but they stuck around for nearly the entire game and made Wisconsin sweat. If an FCS and a MAC team can find success against the Badgers’ defensive line, it’s impossible to feel confident against one of the best rushing attacks in the Big Ten.

Perhaps they’ve improved since then. Elijah Hills has taken clear strides, at least when it comes to pass rush.

Regardless, Rutgers is going to find out for themselves. Everybody knows what their plan on offense will be.

It’ll be up to Wisconsin’s defensive line and linebackers to stop it. But they haven’t done anything yet to prove they can.

BRAEDYN LOCKE BUILDS OFF HIS CAREER DAY

ROHRER: Buy.

Just to be clear, Braedyn Locke building off his career day doesn't mean he has to top 359 yards and three touchdowns. But it does mean he needs to continue to display the development that helped Wisconsin's offense explode against Purdue. He needs to continue to stretch the field vertically. He needs to continue to make the appropriate check at the line of scrimmage. He needs to continue to navigate the pocket well and stand tall in the face of pressure.

It's risky to predict that Locke will continue to excel against Rutgers, namely because the Scarlet Knights boast an excellent passing defense. Their secondary is deep and experienced. Their corners have been remarkable in coverage. The Scarlet Knights allow just 176.4 passing yards-per-game, good for 27th-best in the nation.

If there's an area where Rutgers' defense hasn't been especially outstanding, however, it's the pass-rush. For as much talk as there's been about Wisconsin's disappointing pass-rush, the Scarlet Knights have had even worse luck getting to the quarterback. Rutgers ranks 103rd nationally with just eight sacks all season.

That factor should bode well for the Badgers. Last week, against a Purdue defense that's actually out-sacked Rutgers this fall, Wisconsin's offensive line likely had its best performance in pass-protection all season. Locke had all day to throw the football, comfortably sitting back in the pocket and dicing the Boilermakers' secondary apart. It doesn't matter how good Rutgers' defensive backs have been in coverage; they can't repeatedly lock down Wisconsin's receivers for four, five, six seconds down after down.

If Locke has time — and he should — there's no reason why he can't put together a similar performance to a week ago.

SLUSHER: Sell.

Rutgers may not have the biggest sack numbers, but they do have one player who will make Locke more uncomfortable than anybody on Purdue did last week.

Locke’s performance is most dependent on the matchup between the Badgers’ offensive tackles and Rutgers defensive end Aaron Lewis.

The fifth-year senior has been one of the better pass rushers in the Big Ten for the past few years, and this season is no different. Despite having just one sack, his 18 pressures are tied for ninth-highest in the conference.

Lewis isn’t coming off of his best performance. He registered just one pressure against Nebraska, one week after a six-pressure day against Washington. I expect him to bounce back against a potentially banged-up left tackle in Jack Nelson, who left early in the second half of last week’s game against Purdue due to an issue with his hip.

And while Locke’s performance against Purdue was incredibly impressive, the Boilermakers had nobody like Lewis. Their best pass rusher, Kydran Jenkins, isn’t even a full-time edge rusher.

Rutgers’ pass rush outside of Lewis isn’t very impressive, but it feels safe to say that Locke won’t have nearly as many six-second pockets this Saturday.

It doesn’t feel like a coincidence that the best game of his career came against the worst pass rush he’s ever faced. Locke's performance against Purdue is sure to inspire some extra confidence, perhaps enough to bleed into these next few weeks, but he's gonna have to succeed against a real defensive front before I feel confident predicting anything.

SHAKEUPS CONTINUE AT WIDE RECEIVER, TAILBACK

ROHRER: Sell.

There were big shakeups last week at the skill positions on offense due to injury and otherwise. CJ Williams saw most of the action on the outside opposite Vinny Anthony, both of whom had good performances. Trech Kekahuna got plenty of run in the absence of Will Pauling. Darrion Dupree acted as the de facto No. 2 tailback with Chez Mellusi stepping away from the program indefinitely.

Why don't I foresee more changes this week? Because these adjustments worked against Purdue. Anthony and Kekahuna are clearly the two most explosive players on this offense; they need to be on the field much more frequently. Dupree looked solid and had several plays where he appeared to be a shoestring tackle away from busting loose, and the coaching staff still seems eager to see what he can do with the ball in his hands.

Sometimes, finding the resident playmakers on an offense is a natural process that only occurs when injuries and the like whittle down the numbers in skill position groups. That's not to say Pauling or Bryson Green won't return and see plenty of snaps, because they certainly will when healthy. That's not to say Cade Yacamelli has been fully supplanted as the backup tailback, because he's proven to be a capable running back this season. Still, Wisconsin may have found lightning in a bottle with the playmakers it utilized against Purdue. Why change that amidst a season of offensive struggles?

SLUSHER: Sell.

I believe the stunning offensive performance against Purdue taught the coaches a lot about certain players, especially Kekahuna, but it won’t have a major effect on how these weapons are ultimately used.

Pauling is still the best receiver on the team, despite the underwhelming numbers this season, and they still don’t have a deep threat who’s better than Green.

The running back rotation we saw will also likely remain the same for the remainder of the season. Walker is the top dog and should only improve as he continues to heal. And for as good as Yacamelli has been, offensive coordinator Phil Longo said in plain English that Walker and Dupree are the top two backs.

“As we have whittled down who we’re focusing in on the backfield in the last week, it was primarily Tawee and Darrion,” Longo said in his press conference on Monday.

One of the great long term benefits of a blowout win is that the coaches get a better in-game look at some of their players who are lower on the totem pole.

Fickell and co. definitely got that, but the only player who really changed his standing for the rest of the season was Kekahuna. I believe the rotations will more-or-less return to normal.

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