Buy or Sell: Week 5 Storylines vs. USC

Wisconsin opens its Big Ten slate out in Los Angeles against the No. 13 ranked USC Trojans.

As kickoff draws nearer, BadgerBlitz.com football beat writers Seamus Rohrer and Donnie Slusher will decide if they're "buying" or "selling" on various storylines surrounding the Wisconsin football program.

ROHRER: Sell.

USC fell to Michigan last week in a game that felt like an intriguing thought experiment. What happens when a blue-collar team that can’t throw the ball but might be the most physical in the nation collides with a flashy program with dazzling talent at the skill positions but a lack of difference makers in the trenches? The answer was a mightily entertaining game, with the Wolverines’ ground-and-pound style ultimately emerging victorious.

It was a cathartic game for old-school football fans, one that proved that you can still beat some of the best teams in the nation with downhill, hard-nosed football. Michigan laid out the blueprint for other teams to try to rough up the Trojans in the trenches, a strategy every future USC opponent this season will undoubtably try. Will it work for the Badgers? I’m not convinced. I don’t see Wisconsin being able to replicate and execute the Wolverines’ game-plan come Saturday.

The Trojans showed some clear weaknesses in Ann Arbor, but let’s get a few things straight. First of all, they still almost won. Despite an offensive line that resembled five subway turnstiles, despite the fact that quarterback Miller Moss wound up on the turf seemingly every play, despite the fact that their run defense was repeatedly gashed to the tune of 290 yards, they nearly held Michigan off. The Wolverines needed a heroic breakaway run by Kalel Mullings during their two-minute drill to even have a shot at scoring the game-winning touchdown.

What’s more, Michigan has a very specific personnel that allowed it to prey on USC’s weaknesses. Their trenches are some of the stoutest in the country, both offensively and defensively. Wisconsin’s offensive line has been solid through three games, but they haven’t exactly been firing off the ball and pushing linebackers around at the second level. As for the defensive line and pass rush, underwhelming doesn’t even begin to describe it. I don’t believe the Badgers have the talent on their offensive and defensive lines to bloody up the Trojans for a second straight week.

SLUSHER: Sell.

The extent to which the Badgers control this game depends almost entirely on their offensive line, which has been difficult to assess through three games. They looked capable against two lower-level schools to start the year, then were absolutely decimated by Alabama’s front right before the bye week.

In terms of talent, USC’s defensive line falls somewhere in the middle, but they’re definitely good enough to stand their ground and not be “bullied”.

Michigan’s offensive line, which is much better than Wisconsin’s, only dominated USC for the first half last weekend. The Trojan defense eventually fought back and even imposed their will at times on the Wolverines.

The Badgers will no-doubt try to run the football and lean on their physicality up front. After the loss to Alabama, Luke Fickell and certain players reiterated that they’re a run-first team, and that will probably be even truer without Tyler Van Dyke.

And on the other side of the ball, Wisconsin’s defensive line has looked poor and could struggle against Woody Marks.

USC’s tackles have had a rocky start to the year, allowing 18 pressures through three games, but their interior is more competent and experienced. Unless Curt Neal and Elijah Hills each gained 20 pounds over the bye week, they’re going to have trouble against Marks.

ROHRER: Buy.

Wisconsin has just one defensive turnover on the season, and it came at an inconsequential time in the waning moments of the opener against Western Michigan. It was also produced by true freshman cornerback Xavier Lucas, who isn’t a starter and played just seven snaps last week against Alabama.

Defensive coordinator Mike Tressel spoke this week about how turnovers come in bunches, and they tend to come when defenses have multiple players converging on the football. The Badgers’ defense was…fine until the Crimson Tide eviscerated them, but Tressel is right — they need more hats to the ball. The improved speed is apparent on this defense, but it’s only been noticeable on an individual level. Wisconsin’s defense hasn’t been flying around with multiple hats to the ball with regularity, and that’s Tressel’s catalyst for creating more takeaways.

I believe Wisconsin will end its takeaway dry spell, partially for the simple reason that it has to end at some point. The Badgers have been close to a handful of interceptions on some tipped balls, and jarring the football loose from ball-carriers was almost certainly addressed in a defensive meeting room as this team tries to create more splash on defense. Moss has been very good at protecting the football, save for a pick-six last week in which he blatantly telegraphed the throw. Regardless, I also expect Wisconsin to be able to create more pressure than it has been against an offensive line that’s had its struggles. Trojans’ right tackle Mason Murphy surrendered six pressures last week, and he wasn’t alone in pass-blocking ineptitude. If the Badgers can speed up Moss’ internal clock with some pressure, takeaways will come much easier.

SLUSHER: Sell.

If this was a traditional Lincoln Riley team, I’d feel much better about Wisconsin’s chances in this area.

His defenses were so poor in recent years that games almost always became shoot-outs. He constantly had to rely on his passing game, which led to more opportunities for sacks and turnovers.

Caleb Williams was sacked 33 times last season, tied for 12th most amongst FBS quarterbacks.

However, this is a different USC team. The introduction of new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has improved the defense significantly over the first few games.

After a rough first half last week against Michigan, they shaped up in the second half and gave the offense a real chance to come back in the end and almost win.

If last year’s USC team took that same first-half beating, Williams would’ve tried to throw his way out of it and they would’ve never had a chance to come back. Instead, the defense stood their ground and allowed Riley to call a balanced game, leaning on both Moss and their improved run game, led by Marks.

The senior transfer from Mississippi State has rushed for 271 yards through three games, and is on pace for 1,084 yards in the regular season. Riley has yet to have a running back rush for 1,000 yards in a season during his USC tenure. His current offense is the most balanced he’s had in years, and will make it difficult for the Badgers to create big plays.

ROHRER: Buy.

At the time of writing, the spread is currently USC -15.5. Given how hopelessly adrift Wisconsin looked two weeks ago against Alabama, that’s honestly very reasonable. But a lot can change from game to game in college football, and I’m cautiously optimistic that the Badgers had time to address some issues during their bye week.

This is a big game for Wisconsin for all kinds of reasons. In the short term, two straight losses to top-15 programs isn’t that bad of a look, but it would significantly cripple the Badgers’ chances to make noise on a national scale this season. This game is also big for morale. After getting thoroughly humbled by the Tide at home, Wisconsin is playing for its pride as well. Finally, this game has long-term implications. Not many give the Badgers a chance at victory, but if they can’t at least keep it close, it’ll be yet another bad loss on head coach Luke Fickell’s resume, one that indicates he’s still struggling to get this program up to par with the big boys.

If Wisconsin wasn’t coming off a bye week, I’d be much closer to selling on this one. But that extra week of preparation should be crucial in getting backup quarterback Braedyn Locke ready to handle the starting role and adding whatever tweaks the staff deemed necessary. The bye week is also a great time for self-reflection, something the Badgers could use plenty of. They got to self-scout in an effort to remedy their own weaknesses in addition to having extra time to scout USC. The Trojans are undoubtably a daunting foe, but Wisconsin has few excuses for this game to not at least be competitive.

SLUSHER: Sell.

How much evidence is there that the Badgers are even that good?

They looked good-not-great against two lower-level teams, then got absolutely dog-walked by the Crimson Tide two weeks ago.

Now, an offense devoid of any dynamic qualities lost their starting quarterback and will roll out a backup in Braedyn Locke who has only started three games in his career.

On the other side, the defensive line is the weak point of the team and can easily be run over. Wisconsin’s corners, once thought to be a major strength, were absolutely shredded by Alabama’s receivers two weeks ago.

The Trojans are also simply too good for the Badgers to hang with.

They beat #13 LSU in the home opener, then nearly came back against #18 Michigan last week. That loss was far more impressive than either of Wisconsin’s two wins.

USC is a team with both creativity and heart, two things the Badgers haven’t shown much of at all this year.

I think it could stay close for two or three quarters, then the defense will eventually be overwhelmed by one or multiple of the Trojans’ weapons.

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