BadgerBlitz.com Buy or Sell: Week 4 Storylines vs. Purdue

Madison — Wisconsin is set for a Friday night showdown on the road against Purdue to open up conference play.

As kickoff draws nearer, BadgerBlitz.com football beat writers Seamus Rohrer and Donnie Slusher will decide if they're "buying" or "selling" on various storylines surrounding the Wisconsin football program.

SEAMUS: Buy

There's a few changes that could take place here, the first being dependent on the availability of center Jake Renfro.

It's a possibility Renfro returns this week, but judging from Luke Fickell's comments on Monday, that doesn't sound like the most likely scenario. If the center is indeed healthy enough to play, the staff must also decide whether they should a) start him, b) ease him back in with a few drives, or c) let him take another week off with the bye week on the horizon and hope that he returns at full strength for the Rutgers game in two weeks. There's a few different schools of thought, and you could make a case for each one.

What's more intriguing, however, is the possibility that we see Trey Wedig in a starting role. Wedig played 38 snaps against Georgia Southern, his highest total of the season. The backup spelled both Michael Furtney and Joe Huber at each guard position along the offensive front. Fickell didn't mince words when he said that the staff views Wedig as a starter.

I'm not convinced this offense is married to either of its current starting guards, particularly Furtney. Wedig has been nearly flawless as a pass-blocker thus far, and is also a force to be reckoned with in the running game. I'll buy that changes are coming along the offensive line because even if Renfro doesn't play, I'd wager that Wedig continues to see an uptick in playing time and possibly even supplants Furtney or Huber as a starter.

DONNIE: Buy

Throughout the first three games, three offensive linemen have played nearly every snap on offense — center Tanor Bortolini, and tackles Riley Mahlman and Jack Nelson. Against Georgia Southern, the trio each logged 66 snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. The guard position is where we’ve seen variation. Furtney and Huber are typically the snap leaders, but Wedig has played more and more every week. His 43-snap outing this past Saturday was his highest count of the season so far, resulting in a superb 86.3 PFF grade, good for best on the offense. I expect Wedig’s involvement to only increase as the season progresses, and I would not be surprised if he eventually becomes a permanent starter.

Renfro’s status is still up in the air. Fickell expressed optimism at the possibility of seeing him play Friday, but also acknowledged that it may be safer to wait until after next week’s bye. While Renfro is sure to see plenty of playing time once he does return, he could start out with some rust after missing the entire 2022 season, as well as the beginning of this one.

As nice as it is for the Badgers to be able to effectively roll out different combinations of offensive lines, they can’t expect to still be flipping through rotations when Iowa or Ohio State come to town. The non-conference portion of the year can be devoted to experimentation. Now it’s time to get serious.

SEAMUS: Buy

For starters, Purdue's rushing defense hasn't been anything to write home about. Through three games, it's allowing 132.7 yards-per-game on the ground, good for 75th in the nation.

The Boilermakers were shredded last week against Syracuse, giving up a whopping 271 yards on the ground. While Orange quarterback Garrett Shrader had 195 of those yards, Purdue was soundly defeated in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Their defensive line is a work in progress, as they've needed to replace three starters from last year's team in Jack Sullivan, Branson Deen and Lawrence Johnson. Braelon Allen should be licking his chops after watching the film from Purdue's loss a week ago.

Now, Allen hasn't even topped 15 carries since the opener, and I don't necessarily expect him to have a heavier workload Friday night. However, I do envision the star back breaking off a big run or two, which should be all he needs to get back to the 100-yard mark.

DONNIE: Buy

For Allen’s first two seasons, he was the undisputed centerpiece of the offense. Last year, he averaged 19.2 carries per game, rushing for over 100+ yards seven different times. He came out this season in a new offense and looked like his usual self at first, rushing for 141 yards and two touchdowns in the season opener.

It’s taken a turn since then. Against Washington State, Allen only rushed seven times for 20 yards. He ultimately performed well against Georgia Southern, but fans left that game with more questions than answers. After it took him almost a quarter-and-a-half to get a handoff, he eventually ran for 94 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 7.8 yards per carry. His early absence was due to injury concerns, but he claims to be feeling better heading into Friday’s game.

If Phil Longo wants Allen to start off hot, he’ll have to get him involved early. Excluding the Washington State game where he was virtually ignored by the offense, he’s averaging 8.1 yards per carry in the other two contests. I can’t envision Allen playing a major role in the offense on Friday and not being productive.

SEAMUS: Sell

I do think Wisconsin's secondary has something of a bounce-back performance Friday night, but I believe the catalyst for that will be the pass rush.

Georgia Southern was a game of peaks and valleys for Wisconsin's pass defense, which intercepted five passes but also allowed 383 yards. I'm not sold that the coverage issues will be fixed in one week, but I do believe Wisconsin's pass rush is starting to heat up, which will only be beneficial on the back end.

Wisconsin got to the quarterback five times against Georgia Southern, including two sacks from Darryl Peterson. After failing to register a sack in the opener, sacking Cameron Ward twice in Pullman and Davis Brin five times last week, it appears the Badgers are finding their mojo when it comes to rushing the passer.

What's more, Purdue's offensive line was rather porous against Syracuse. They allowed two sacks, and quarterback Hudson Card was under consistent pressure. If Wisconsin can stay hot from a pass-rushing perspective, it'll be a big boost for the Badgers' secondary.

Finally, I'm not overly impressed with Card as a signal-caller. He has some mobility and can put really nice touch on passes, but Wisconsin has already played a better quarterback in Cameron Ward and shouldn't be taken by surprise by anything Card can do.

DONNIE: Buy

Even against a middling offense like Georgia Southern, Wisconsin allowed way too many big plays. Ricardo Hallman got beat by receiver Derwin Burgess Jr. for a 68-yard completion in the second quarter, leading to a touchdown shortly after. About a quarter later, the defense allowed Brin to complete a 41-yard pass, which set up a touchdown completion despite Preston Zachman sticking closely to Jjay Mcafee. The individual plays were rough, but Wisconsin was also beaten in time of possession by almost three minutes, despite getting six turnovers. They were also out-gained, 455-451.

It wasn’t just this game, either. They allowed Ward to shred them in Week 2, both in the air and on the ground. Even Buffalo quarterback Cole Snyder caught the Badger defense sleeping a few times for some major completions. Simply put, this secondary has yet to inspire any confidence. They also have a new challenge in the form of Deion Burks, an explosive redshirt sophomore receiver who broke out in the season opener with 152 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

Purdue may not be a good enough passing offense to truly exploit these weaknesses, but after last week, it doesn’t seem like the quality of the opponent matters.

SEAMUS: Sell

The old adage is once is a mistake, twice is a coincidence and three times is a pattern. Well, Wisconsin has now started sluggish in each of its first three games. It's a pattern, and at this point it may just be who this team is.

I'd have more confidence in the Badgers' ability to finally come out of the gates hot if they were at home. But on the road in a Big Ten West matchup, I have a hard time seeing Wisconsin suddenly break out of its first-half slump and come out guns blazing.

You can pour over all of the statistics and advanced metrics you like, but the reality may be as simple as this is a second half team, for better or for worse.

DONNIE: Sell

It’s a nice thought, but I can’t think of anything to help me believe it.

The last time they went on the road, in the second game against Washington State, Wisconsin found itself in an 18-point hole before halftime. It started similarly slow last week against Georgia Southern. The Eagles took a seven-point lead in the third quarter, which then compelled the Badgers to score four straight touchdowns and secure a lead. Offensive firepower is somewhere within this team. It usually just takes a few quarters for it to emerge.

Even though I expect Wisconsin to beat Purdue, the Boilermakers will come out hot. They’ve lost to the Badgers 16 times in a row. The game is in their stadium, on a primetime slot without many other games being played.

The key to a fast start this week for Wisconsin will be with the running game. Longo likes to come out and run, but he doesn’t always choose his most creative or innovative plays until later. He shouldn’t mess around this week, but he probably will, because that’s all we’ve seen so far.

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