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Published Sep 12, 2024
Buy or Sell: Week 3 Storylines vs. Alabama
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Seamus Rohrer and Donnie Slusher
Staff Writers

Wisconsin wraps up its out-of-conference play with a huge showdown against the No. 4 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide.

As kickoff draws nearer, BadgerBlitz.com football beat writers Seamus Rohrer and Donnie Slusher will decide if they're "buying" or "selling" on various storylines surrounding the Wisconsin football program.

WISCONSIN COVERS THE SPREAD

ROHRER: Sell.

I fully believe Wisconsin will fight valiantly and keep this game competitive for longer than perhaps most expect. Head coach Luke Fickell knows how to get his team ready for big games, and one of the few things you could rely on from his turbulent debut season was that the Badgers would play to their competition. Regardless, keeping this final score under a two touchdown deficit seems like an extremely tall order.

Last week, South Florida played an unbelievable game against Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The Bulls played with their heart on their sleeve, undaunted by the 100,000-plus packed into Bryant-Denny Stadium under the lights. They trailed by just one point entering the fourth quarter. And yet, they still lost by 26 points.

Alabama’s talent, especially against a lesser team, is inevitable. You can contain the Crimson Tide for three quarters and some change, and then 17-year old phenom Ryan Williams takes a hitch route to the house and the floodgates burst. I expect Wisconsin’s level of intensity to be extremely high and for the Badgers to make some splash plays early. But this Alabama team, particularly quarterback Jalen Milroe, is no stranger to hostile stadiums and adversity. Once the Tide settle into the Camp Randall environment, they should have no problem pulling away in the second half.

SLUSHER: Buy

Alabama’s fourth-quarter performance against South Florida puts this question in doubt, but I ultimately don’t believe the Badgers will lie down and die as quickly and easily as the Bulls did last week.

The big concern for the Badgers, unsurprisingly, is their run defense. If the Crimson Tide come out and run the ball effectively with Jam Miller and Justice Haynes, they’ll take control of the game and never give it back. The talent disparity is simply too wide.

But if Jalen Milroe has to win against Wisconsin’s secondary and edge rushers, which are two major strengths of the team, there’s no reason why the Badgers can’t stay in it.

Granted, the offense must also score enough points to stay within two touchdowns.

Offensive coordinator Phil Longo’s gameplan last year against Ohio State was one of his best of the season, so there’s a chance he saves his best plays for big games.

Regardless, I think we’ll know how this game will go after the first quarter. If the Badgers can’t stop the run, good night. But if they can, it could be a real fight.

WISCONSIN'S DEFENSE STRUGGLES WITHOUT JAKE CHANEY

ROHRER: Sell.

Make no mistake: Jake Chaney is an integral part of this defense. As the mike linebacker and “green dot” player for coordinator Mike Tressel’s unit, he calls the shots and bears much of the responsibility for orchestrating the defense. His loss will certainly be felt from a leadership and seniority standpoint. But athletically and talent-wise, Wisconsin should be just fine at inside backer even without the its senior captain.

If there was any position the Badgers could lose a senior starter and not expect any drop-off in production, it’s middle linebacker. Talent abounds in this room, and don’t forget Wisconsin will still trot out the tackling machine Jaheim Thomas at the other starting spot. But it’s the depth of this room that makes me feel extremely confident in its ability to seamlessly replace Chaney.

When the senior was ejected for targeting last week, he was replaced by USC transfer Tackett Curtis. On the very next play from scrimmage, Curtis strafed the line of scrimmage, shot though a gap and blew up an outside run to stuff South Dakota for no gain inside the red zone. Curtis finished with five tackles on the afternoon, all coming in the second half in Chaney’s stead. He oozes nastiness and physicality, and has unbelievable instincts, which he trusts fully. Curtis would start for most programs in the nation, and I have a feeling it’s going to be increasingly hard to keep him off the field.

Christian Allegro should also see some reps in place of Chaney. The sophomore has played sparingly in his Wisconsin career, but he immediately catches your eye when he’s on the field. He’s lightning fast, and he can fly into the backfield in the blink of an eye. That ability makes him a dangerous pass-rusher; the sophomore logged his second career sack in Week 2. That’s also a skill the Badgers may need to utilize if they continue to struggle to generate pressure off the edges.

As long as Wisconsin can get its alignments sorted with a new on-field play-caller, these middle linebackers should be just fine. With their speed and instincts, I actually believe Curtis and Allegro may even present more favorable matchups for the Badgers as they try to contain Milroe’s mobility.

SLUSHER: Buy.

Based on my belief that the Crimson Tide will come out and try to establish the run, it’s hard to measure the weight of losing the first defensive reinforcement in the run game.

We’ve seen over the first two weeks that it can be easy for opposing offenses to establish a consistent running game against Wisconsin’s razor-thin defensive line, who we’ve seen struggle at times against MAC and FCS offensive lines.

They might tremble at the thought of facing Alabama’s interior trio of Tyler Booker, Parker Brailsford and Jaeden Roberts, who are all far more talented than any interior they’ve faced yet.

In the first half, when Alabama will try to test its limits against a team with less talent, especially up front, the linebackers will be instrumental in helping stop the run. But it’ll be much harder without their middle-of-the-box stalwart in Chaney.

Curtis should provide some solid relief snaps, like he did last week, but I’m not sure if he’s big enough to be trusted against an SEC running game. It’d also be too heavy of a task to lay on Alliegro alone. I expect the coaches to rotate them evenly throughout the first half and pray that things aren’t too dire by halftime.

THE BADGERS' OFFENSE ACTUALLY RESEMBLES AN AIR RAID

ROHRER: Buy.

If Wisconsin has to throw the ball 50 times on Saturday, it’ll be because they’re down big and chasing points. The Badgers still need to be able to run the football in order to control the pace of the game and keep the Crimson Tide defense off balance. Still, I expect Longo to reach much deeper into his bag of air raid passing concepts than we saw in the first two games.

Western Michigan and South Dakota were the tip of the iceberg that is Longo’s playbook. While that resulted in some uninspiring offensive performances, he had no reason to tip his hand prior to the huge showdown with Alabama. I expect both an expanded passing game as well as a few trick plays. This is a kitchen sink kind of game; it’s going to take everything the Badgers have to upset the Tide. Whether the offense can execute is another story entirely, but expect an exponential increase in drop-back passing come Saturday.

I’ll be fascinated to see where Longo tries to attack the Alabama secondary, and what he identifies as weak points in its defense. In terms of the Tide’s defensive backs, safeties Keon Sabb and Malachi Moore haven’t put anything on tape that would incline a coordinator to try to pick on them in coverage. The same goes for Alabama’s starting outside corners, Domani Jackson and Zabien Brown. Still, Brown is a true freshman that will be facing the first legitimate test of his college career on the road in an unforgiving environment. Does Longo try to isolate him in coverage and let one of his perimeter receivers go to work?

SLUSHER: Sell.

Given the high point spread and understanding of how good Alabama is, some fans seem to think that the offense must win 55-54 if they’re gonna win at all. There’s a chance the Badger offense can win a shootout, but based on everything we’ve seen them do under Longo, I can’t predict it.

There have been flashes of Wisconsin’s offense speeding up their tempo and playing more with more aggression, like against Purdue and _ last season, but that’s not likely how they’ll want to play against the No. 4 Crimson Tide.

I can see Longo try to open things up and try to take advantage of Alabama’s man-coverage tendencies, but it’s hard to expect them to completely flip on how they’ve begun the season.

They’ll lean on Chez Mellusi, Cade Yacamelli and Tawee Walker, if he’s healthy. If they can generate some rhythm, then Van Dyke can put on his cape and win the game through the air. But if they can’t establish any control, Van Dyke will have to be the hero out of desperation.

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