Madison — Wisconsin will hit the road for its first away game of the season, heading out west to Pullman for a rematch with Washington State in Week 2.
As kickoff draws nearer, BadgerBlitz.com football beat writers Seamus Rohrer and Donnie Slusher will decide if they're "buying" or "selling" on various storylines surrounding the Wisconsin football program.
WISCONSIN LEANS ON ITS GROUND GAME ONCE AGAIN
SEAMUS: Buy. Colorado State couldn't get anything going on the ground against the Cougars, but they also trailed for almost the entire game. Earlier in the week, Luke Fickell stressed the importance of being able to run the ball on the road, and so I do think Wisconsin will come out and try to establish the run. After Week 1, it looks like Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi are the Badgers' best players on offense; the scheme should run through them. It would also behoove Wisconsin to establish the run early so as to not instantly get in a shootout. Washington State likes to go fast on offense and air it out. It'll be massive for the Badgers if they can control the ball and play at their own pace, and that starts with the running game. Moreover, Washington State's front seven is toughest on the edges with pass-rushers Ron Stone and Brennan Jackson. How do you take pass-rushers out of the game? Run the football.
DONNIE: Buy. Not only are both primary running backs likely the two best players on Wisconsin’s offense, it didn’t look particularly close last week. I could see Phil Longo implementing the same blueprint he used at North Carolina in 2020, when the Tar Heels averaged 41.0 rushing attempts per game to only 29.8 passing, leading to 1,000 yard rushing seasons from both Michael Carter and Javonte Williams. Allen and Mellusi looked perfectly capable of shouldering a similar workload. Third-stringer Jackson Acker even looked impressive in his garbage time action, if they ever have to lean on him.
This was likely Wisconsin’s plan all along, regardless of the new quarterbacks and receivers. Tanner Mordecai still looked to be adjusting to the new system and teammates in his debut. It would be a mistake to expect any significant contributions from Mordecai until he shows true comfort in the offense and with his receivers. Luckily, they won’t have to lean on him quite yet.
THIS IS THE BADGERS' TOUGHEST ROAD TEST OF THE YEAR
SEAMUS: Buy. If Wisconsin had to play in Iowa City or Columbus this year, it'd be a different story. But Martin Stadium in Pullman, Washington will be the toughest road environment for Wisconsin in 2023.
This is the Cougars' first home game of the season, as they oddly had to take on Colorado State on the road in Week 1. It's a night game and will be aired on national television. Yes, Martin Stadium only seats 32,952 and last year the Cougars were 67th in the FBS in stadium capacity, but I still expect a hostile crowd. Washington State is an unranked, home underdog against a ranked team. They're playing with house money; they have nothing to lose. That tends to make for a highly dangerous opponent.
DONNIE: Buy. There are a few concerning road trips later on in the season for Wisconsin, namely against conference foes Illinois and Minnesota, but this Saturday will be one of Wisconsin’s toughest road games in years.
The travel factor in college football always gets underrated. Between 2005 and 2019, teams that traveled over 1,000 miles won only 38.2% of their games, according to FiveThirtyEight. Pullman is over 1,600 miles away from Camp Randall. Wisconsin’s next longest road trip this season will be in November when they travel about 360 miles to play Indiana.
Timing is also their enemy. This Badgers roster is full of new players. A road trip this brutal wouldn’t be as bad later in the season, when they’ve had a chance to create some sort of chemistry or familiarity. But this will be the new-look Badgers’ first time playing outside of their Camp Randall nest — 1,600 miles away, on national television, in their opponent’s home debut.
NAKIA WATSON GETS REVENGE ON THE BADGERS...AGAIN
SEAMUS: Sell. Last season, Wisconsin's defense had their eyes on Nakia Watson, the Cougars' starting tailback and former Badger. It didn't matter — he scored both of Washington State's touchdowns and helped them knock of his old team in their house.
Watson wasn't that efficient, but he made the big plays when they counted against his former team. He ran for just 33 yards on 10 carries, but punched in a touchdown on the ground. He also caught a 31-yard touchdown pass in which he shed a tackle attempt from Kamo'i Latu and outraced the Badgers' defense to the end zone.
I've got it playing out differently this season. The Cougars didn't run the ball well at all in their opener, and Watson logged just 15 yards on seven carries. He did catch three passes and reel in a touchdown through the air, an element of his game Wisconsin will undoubtably be highly aware of. Still, this team lives or dies through the air offensively, and if anyone hurts the Badgers' defense, they'll be looking to see to it that it's not Watson for a second year in a row.
DONNIE: Sell. There’s a solid chance Watson can take revenge on the Badgers in the form of a victory. However, Washington State’s offense views the running back position as strictly complementary, which will likely limit Watson’s production and ultimate impact.
This past offseason, the Cougars brought in 27-year old offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, whose Western Kentucky offense finished sixth nationally in yards per game and first in total passing yards. Arbuckle did this with a quarterback who played Division II before last season. It’s safe to say that his offense favors quarterbacks.
Watson was the team’s leading back last season, but also contributed in the passing game, recording 769 rushing yards and 296 receiving. Yet he didn’t make much of an impact in the Cougars’ first game. Three other running backs also got multiple carries and finished with similar yard totals.
There’s a chance Watson does what he did last year against the Badgers, recording a modest amount of yards and maybe finding his way into the endzone, but he will serve as a complement to the Cougar offense at most.
WISCONSIN'S DEFENSE LOGS ITS FIRST SACK AND TAKEAWAY
SEAMUS: Buy. One of the main flaws in Wisconsin's Week 1 defensive performance was their failure to register a takeaway, or even get the quarterback on the ground. Fortunately for the Badgers, they didn't quite need it against an overmatched Buffalo team. That won't be the case in Week 2.
Players up and down Wisconsin's defense this week have talked about making Cougars' star quarterback Cameron Ward uncomfortable. If he's uncomfortable, he'll make mistakes, and the Badgers can capitalize with sacks and takeaways. Getting pressure on Ward should be defensive coordinator Mike Tressel's top priority. With that, I think the Badgers will manage to get him on the ground a few times. Colorado State did it three times a week ago, and with the sheer volume of passing plays from this offense, it seems hard to avoid.
As for getting a takeaway, I think the Badgers' defense will get on the board in the turnover department. Pressure leads to turnovers, and I do believe Wisconsin will crank up the pressure. The Badgers picked off Ward twice in last year's game, and after having a clean performance in Week 1, Ward is due for a blemish or two on the stat sheet.
DONNIE: Sell. I believe one or the other can and probably will happen, but it still feels like a longshot to expect both after the defense could do neither last week.
It’s not like any of Wisconsin’s defensive backs can be considered ballhawks. The five secondary starters have a total of eight career interceptions, and only Kamo’i Latu has caught more than one in a season. On the other side, Ward mostly takes care of the football. He threw 49 passes last week, and didn’t throw a single interception. Last season he averaged 38.2 passing attempts per game and only threw nine interceptions.
There’s also no guarantee of the Badgers getting any pressure on Ward, either. He’s far more elusive than Buffalo quarterback Cole Snyder and will stand behind a better offensive line. Edge rusher Darryl Peterson led the Badgers in pressures last week with four, according to Pro Football Focus. He could finally break through and record his first sack of the season and just the third of his career, but there’s no guarantee.
Wisconsin’s coaches have discussed their emphasis on getting after the quarterback and creating turnovers, but intention doesn’t always lead to reality.
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