The Badgers have a huge opportunity in front of them, with a chance to go into enemy territory and reclaim a trophy from a rival while reaching bowl eligibility in the process.
As kickoff draws nearer, BadgerBlitz.com football beat writers Seamus Rohrer and Donnie Slusher will decide if they're "buying" or "selling" on various storylines surrounding the Wisconsin football program.
WISCONSIN LIMITS KALEB JOHNSON
ROHRER: Sell.
What does "limiting" superstar tailback Kaleb Johnson even look like? His lowest yardage output this season is 91 against Ohio State. He still scored a touchdown in that game and still averaged nearly six yards-per-carry.
Now, Wisconsin held him in check last season in Madison, but that's besides the point considering ex-Hawkeye Leshon Williams tore the Badgers up for 174 yards in that game. Ultimately, no one has been able to slow Johnson down this fall, and Wisconsin doesn't look in any way, shape or form like the team that'll finally do it.
The Badgers' rushing defense sits at an unimpressive 66th nationally. Wisconsin has yet to give up fewer than 100 yards rushing in any game this season. In their losses, the Badgers have surrendered an average of 171 yards on the ground. But even in wins, they're allowing about 127 yards rushing each game.
If Wisconsin could sell out to stop the run, like it managed to do in Piscataway against Rutgers and Kyle Monangai, it would be a different story. But now that Iowa has made the change from Cade McNamara to Brendan Sullivan at quarterback, the Badgers must also account for the latter's legs. By diversifying its ground game, Iowa has made preparing for Johnson even harder.
Finally, sometimes you just have to face a great player. Johnson runs with patience and physicality behind Iowa's zone running scheme. He's the centerpiece of this offense, and hasn't even been slowed down in Iowa's blowout losses.
SLUSHER: Sell.
Wisconsin’s recent three-game winning streak showed that the defense is capable of shutting down a run-first offense. I don’t care how many rushing yards they allowed in those games. Those opposing offenses couldn’t do anything.
With that being said, Johnson is the best running back the Badgers will face all season. Nobody has come close to shutting him down, and Wisconsin’s defense isn’t good enough to finally figure him out.
Ultimately, I expect a similar game to last year’s. Williams finished with 174 rushing yards, but nearly half of those came on an 82-yard touchdown run in the second quarter, the game’s only touchdown.
The Badger defense should stay strong for the majority of the game, but Johnson will rip off at least a few big runs that could end up making the difference. He’s simply inevitable.
THE BADGERS' OFFENSIVE LINE BOUNCES BACK
ROHRER: Buy.
Simply put, Wisconsin's offensive line needs to bounce back if it wants to win this game. If it wants to win any game this season from here on out. AJ Blazek's unit has been the nucleus of any success the Badgers have had on offense.
In the beginning of the season, when Wisconsin's offense looked thoroughly lost (not that they have a distinct identity now), head coach Luke Fickell kept harping on the notion that the unit's personality needs to start up front. During the program's three-game winning streak, that came to fruition. Now, the Badgers have to prove their offensive line can move bodies against a formidable front.
Iowa's rushing defense ranks No. 17 in the nation. Its front seven, while perhaps not quite as formidable as in years past, still boasts Sunday-level talent in linebacker Jay Higgins and defensive lineman Ethan Hurkett, among others.
But that can't matter if Wisconsin is to escape Iowa City with a win. This game will be a collision in the trenches. The action within several yards of the line of scrimmage will decide the outcome of the game, on both sides of the ball. While the Badgers' offensive front struggled last week, I'd expect this unit — one that's overall been above average — to bounce back and at least keep Wisconsin in it come Saturday night, if for no other reason than it has to if the Badgers want a chance.
SLUSHER: Sell.
While that three-game winning streak inspired a lot of confidence in and for the offensive line, deservedly, they didn’t face a murderer’s row of defensive fronts.
Against the two truly elite defensive fronts they’ve played, Alabama and Penn State, the offensive line was overwhelmed both times.
We’ve yet to see them look dominant against a great front. They deserve optimism for their week-by-week improvement, but I’m not yet convinced that they’re ready for a defense like Iowa.
I think we’ll know what kind of performance we’re getting from the offensive line almost immediately.
If Iowa can get pressure early and make quarterback Braedyn Locke too uncomfortable to take shots, they’ll be able to crowd the line for the rest of the game and have a feast.
It’ll be up to the Badger offense to make themselves hard to defend.
BRAEDYN LOCKE FINALLY PROTECTS THE FOOTBALL
ROHRER: Sell.
People will tell you who they are through their actions. Often repeatedly. It's up to you to believe them. Through six games in the Cardinal and White this season, Locke has turned the ball over seven times (six interceptions and one fumble lost). Believe what his play has told you — he's prone to turnovers.
Of those six interceptions, two of them were especially back-breaking pick-sixes. The first sealed the deal on a Wisconsin loss in Los Angeles, while the second gift-wrapped the momentum for Penn State last week.
Iowa, meanwhile, has a penchant for the takeaway. The Hawkeyes are tied for 7th in the country with 10 interceptions as a team. They've forced seven fumbles this season and recovered five of them. They average close to two takeaways per-game, and will now face a quarterback that's turned the ball over at least once in every start this season.
It would obviously behoove Wisconsin's offense if Locke could suddenly protect the football, but I just don't see it happening in what should be a sloppy, rainy night in Iowa City.
SLUSHER: Sell.
There are so many factors in this game that seem like perfect ingredients for a turnover fest — Iowa’s defense, Locke’s streak of turnovers, rain — that this question seems almost like a no-brainer.
Part of me thinks offensive coordinator Phil Longo will be too aware of this and call his most conservative gameplan of the season and attempt to keep it on the ground as much as possible. But I also watched last year’s matchup, when Locke was thrown in the game for an injured Tanner Mordecai and looked absolutely overwhelmed.
The Badgers’ offense had no juice in that game, and allowed it to become the exact type of game Iowa excels at. Hawkeye coach Kirk Ferentz wants nothing more than for every game he’s involved in to become an ugly, down-in-the-dirt, rock fight where everything is decided on the ground or via special teams
If that happens again, Iowa will win, without a doubt. They’ll be able to crowd the line of scrimmage and suffocate Locke before he even thinks about passing.
Longo needs to keep them honest. And besides senior Jermari Harris, this cornerback room will allow them to stretch the field vertically.
The Badgers will have to take chances if they want to win, but it’s also the easiest way to lose. The game could come down to whether or not Locke throws one turnover-worthy play, or three.
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