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Published Aug 29, 2024
Buy or Sell: Week 1 Storylines vs. Western Michigan
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Seamus Rohrer and Donnie Slusher
Staff Writers

Wisconsin is set to open its season under the lights against Western Michigan on Friday night.

As kickoff draws nearer, BadgerBlitz.com football beat writers Seamus Rohrer and Donnie Slusher will decide if they're "buying" or "selling" on various storylines surrounding the Wisconsin football program.

TYLER VAN DYKE MAKES A STRONG FIRST IMPRESSION 

ROHRER: Buy.

I believe that Tyler Van Dyke is in for a very respectable if not dominant season. Against Western Michigan, however, in the friendly confines of Camp Randall Stadium, he could be in for a stat sheet-stuffing performance.

First of all, the Broncos were in the lower echelon of passing defense last season, allowing 234.6 yards-per-game through the air, good for 81st nationally. They also lose their top cornerback from a season ago, Keni-H Lovely, and replace him with an FCS transfer. Western Michigan's depth also appears extremely thin at cornerback, and it figures to struggle to matchup with Wisconsin's detail of receivers.

I'm also not sold on the Broncos' ability to generate pressure against Wisconsin's offensive line with their front seven, meaning Van Dyke should have plenty of comfortable pockets from which to dissect their defense. If the gunslinger can simply be an effective distributor, allowing his playmakers to do the rest, the Badgers' offense should be able to make short work of Western Michigan.

SLUSHER: Sell, kind of.

There are few obstacles standing in the way of Van Dyke lighting up Western Michigan’s defense and having a great Camp Randall debut, for every reason Seamus listed. But I don’t believe he will because he won’t have to.

There are numerous questions and decisions to make in the Badgers’ running back room, especially before the schedule heats up. They need to see how Chez Mellusi’s body holds up in a game setting, if Tawee Walker’s offseason camp performance can cross over to the regular season, what they have in their standout freshmen (Darrion Dupree, Dilin Jones), how capable Jackson Acker is as a rusher, the list goes on.

The coaches are obviously curious about Van Dyke, as he’s the ex-factor of the season, but there’s ultimately more safety in rushing. The Badgers don’t want to start their season with a shootout, especially against a MAC team.

And even though the Broncos’ run defense is better than their pass defense, they’re not the ‘85 Bears.

Western Michigan had a middle-of-the-road run defense in 2023, by MAC standards. They didn’t lose many significant players but didn’t gain any, either. I’d be shocked if Wisconsin had a difficult time on the ground.

When they played Buffalo in last season’s opener, the Badgers ran so efficiently that Tanner Mordecai only had to game-manage — completing 24-of-31 passes for 189 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.

I predict a similar statline for Van Dyke, interceptions and all.

WISCONSIN WINS CONVINCINGLY — AND COVERS THE SPREAD

ROHRER: Buy.

Despite a 38-17 victory in last season's opener, the win was far from convincing. There was an uneasy feeling amongst the Badger faithful, and those concerns wound up justified as the season unraveled. The spread currently sits at Wisconsin -23.5, per ESPN Bet. If I was a gambling man, I'd take the Badgers to cover that spread narrowly.

Western Michigan is an experienced team that shouldn't be too rattled by a noisy, nighttime road environment. Still, this simply isn't a great matchup for the Broncos. Wisconsin is more talented across the board, and there's too many weak spots — particularly on defense — for the Badgers to attack.

SLUSHER: Sell.

I’m gonna need to see this offense in action before I feel comfortable predicting them to win by 24 points. There are so many aforementioned questions at running back that Friday could be treated as somewhat of a preseason game, at least in that room.

And while Van Dyke leads a passing attack that’s more deserving of optimism than last year’s, he brings too much baggage to assume too strong of a performance.

I do believe the defense will hit the ground running and hold the Broncos to a touchdown or two at most. This is likely the healthiest the roster will be all season and I expect the coaches to play as many players as possible, meaning they’ll have enough bodies to stay fresh and even send extra pressure.

There’s also far too much mystery on Western Michigan to predict any outcome. They bring three new coordinators and 31 new transfers.

This feels like a game reserved for hardcore gamblers. You know who you are.

TRUE FRESHMAN GET SNAPS

ROHRER: Buy

If not now, when? If the true freshman on the playing time bubble don't get into the game against a MAC foe at home, that would be a curious decision from head coach Luke Fickell and company considering the Badgers have talked openly about their desire to rotate more players this season, as well as their desire to get specific true freshman involved, namely tailback Darrion Dupree and cornerback Xavier Lucas.

I'll also buy this because it goes hand-in-hand with my previous take that Wisconsin will win comfortably. If the Broncos make this a game for four quarters, it's less likely the Badgers will dig deep into their bag of players. Still, why not get your promising young talent reps in a home environment against a lesser team? Mistakes will be less magnified, and the stakes are simply lower.

SLUSHER: Buy.

Even if they don’t cover the spread, it would be shocking if the Badgers had to sweat this one out.

During Monday’s press conference, Fickell was bemoaning the lack of a preseason in college football. If they build a significant lead early, the coaches will almost certainly use Friday’s game to dig deeper in their depth chart and assess their young talent, similar to a preseason game.

Regardless of outcome, I expect to see at least some action from tailbacks Dupree and Jones, and Lucas in the secondary. But if they build a lead, I could see them using Anelu Lafaele on the edge, as well as Kevin Heywood at right tackle if they want to be cautious about Riley Mahlman’s health.

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