Officially, the Big Ten is Purdue's to lose, and it can tighten its grip even further with a win tonight at home and a win at a flailing Ohio State on Sunday. With wins in those two games it becomes unlikely that Illinois can catch Purdue, and they are the lone team with a real shot at it. Without playing Purdue even picked up a ninth Tier 1 NET victory last night, as Maryland's win over Iowa moved the Terps to 75 in the NET and just barely onto tier 1 since Purdue won in College Park.

With a win tonight Purdue will clinch at least one bye in the Big Ten Tournament. It could clinch another top 4 finish and a double bye by Sunday with a little help.

Somone make sure we have Gene Keady saying "This is the home of 26 Big Ten Championships", because it looks like it will be needed.

The League Favorite

1. Purdue Boilermakers (22-2, 11-2) – After beating Indiana on Saturday and Illinois falling at Michigan State the Boilers are two games in front of Illinois and at least three games in front of the rest of the league in the loss column. Even if Illinois wins its March 5th rematch with Purdue in Champaign it still needs to be perfect in its other six games AND get some help with another Boilermaker loss.

Barring a collapse, it is more of a question of "by how many games" Purdue will win the Big Ten as opposed to "if".

The Challenger

2. Illinois Fighting Illini (18-6, 9-4) – Illinois' loss in East Lansing was the result of a Spartan comeback, and it effectively ended the league race. The Illini drubbed Michigan this week and now they get a chance for revenge against a Maryland team that has already won in Champaign. Illinois has a great chance of getting a top 3 seed in the NCAAs, and that means they could be placed in the other pod in Indianapolis since it is not far from Champaign.

NCAA Tourney Teams

3. Michigan State Spartans (16-9, 8-6) - I am giving the Spartans a big jump this week because they are finally playing like we expected. The Illinois win got them off the bubble and last night was a business-like win in Happy Valley for them. They have a very favorable schedule of at Michigan, Iowa, and Ohio State before they come to West Lafayette.

4. Northwestern Wildcats (17-7, 8-5) – Speaking of business-like, Northwestern did what Bill Carmody's teams struggled to do on Sunday: They beat Penn State to help secure an NCAA bid. It always seemed like Carmody's teams were a game or two away from making the tournament, but they would lose to a bad Penn State team. They now have a two game road trip to Penn State and Indiana where wins likely lock up a second straight NCAA bid.

5. Wisconsin Badgers (17-8, 9-5) – The Badgers finally got a win Tuesday night, beating Ohio State to end a four game losing streak that torpedoed their conference title chances. They still will play a large role in the race though. They host Illinois March 2nd and go to Purdue March 10th. They are an NCAA lock, but they probably blew a chance at a top 4 seed.

Bubbly

6. Nebraska Cornhuskers (17-8, 7-7) – Nebraska continues to be dominant at home with a 79-59 win over Michigan on Saturday, but they are just 1-7 on the road. The road win as at Kansas State, which helps, but getting into the NCAAs without a Big Ten road win is a dicey proposition. Fortunately, their last three road games are at Indiana, Ohio State, and Michigan. If they get two of those and hold serve at home they will be fine.

7. Minnesota Golden Gophers (15-8, 6-6) - I will keep Minnesota at "Bubbly" for now, but with a NET rating of 88 they need a lot of help. They really could have used a win at Iowa on Sunday, but they couldn't pull it out. If they come to Mackey tonight and shock Purdue that would be a gigantic boost to their resume, and they still have to go to Illinois and Northwestern. There are chances for this team, but they probably need to go at least 5-3 down the stretch if not 6-2.

NIT bound

8. Iowa Hawkeyes (14-11, 6-8) – The Hawkeyes are 0-7 against Tier 1 teams and just 5-3 agaisnt Tier 2. If you're a Purdue fan you want them to maintain their NET rating of 70 so Purdue's win in Iowa City stays on Tier 1. The closing schedule looks nightmarish, as they host Wisconsin, go to Michigan State and Northwestern, and play Illinois twice. A run through that slate could play them into the tournament since there is a chance for five Tier 1 wins there, but it is unlikely.

9. Indiana Hoosiers (14-10, 6-7) - What's worse, getting swept by your rival by 20+ points each time for the first time since the Great Depression, or having to stew on it for eight days? Indiana has had the entire week off and doesn't play again until Sunday against Northwestern. The NCAA tourney is an extreme longshot right now, and they probably need 3-4 more wins just to secure an NIT bid. It is honestly baffling how a team with this much talent on paper can be this bad.

10. Maryland Terrapins (14-11, 6-8) - I cannot figure Maryland out. They lost at Ohio State in double overtime last week, but they have won at Illinois. They blasted Nebraska by 22 at home, but lost at home to Rutgers. If they finish over .500 overall they might sneak into the NIT, but that would take three more wins.

11. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (13-10, 5-7) – Rutgers blowing out Wisconsin by 22 was shocking on Saturday. They still have a nasty defense and they are just fine with dragging you down into a 58-56 game. Purdue needs to be wary when they come to Mackey next week because we have seen that Rutgers is not afraid to ugly it up.

Playing Out the String

12. Penn State Nittany Lions (12-13, 6-8) – The only reason to watch Penn State the rest of the season is to see if the weird Bryce Jordan Mausoleum vortex puts Illinois to sleep next Wednesday. It already worked once on Wisconsin though, so don't count on it.

13. Ohio State Buckeyes (14-11, 4-10) – Ohio State wins the fired coach derby. It is hard to believe that this team beat Alabama, and quite handily, back in November. If you want a reason to think they are dangerous, four of their conference losses are by six points or less.

14. Michigan Wolverines (8-17, 3-11) – Michigan has returned to its regularly scheduled programming after the Wisconsin upset. Will they win another game this year?

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