Published Oct 13, 2023
Behind Enemy Lines: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Seamus Rohrer  •  BadgerBlitz
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BadgerBlitz.com brings back it's Behind Enemy Lines series, where we get an opposing beat writer's take on the upcoming matchup.

For Week 4, we spoke to Ross Binder of GoIowaAwesome and touched on Iowa's quarterback situation, its unique offense and more.

How have expectations shifted with the loss of Cade McNamara for the foreseeable future? 

Binder: That's a tricky question to answer, for a few reasons. One, the version of Cade McNamara that Iowa hoped it was getting is not the one who suited up for a little over four games this fall. McNamara was already rehabbing a knee injury from last season when he suffered a preseason quad injury that lingered into the season. That left him very constrained in terms of mobility and also limited Iowa's play-calling options to a degree (QB sneaks and roll-out passes were essentially gone from the Iowa offense with McNamara in charge).

He also struggled with accuracy and developing chemistry with Iowa's receivers (as evidenced by his 51% completion percentage and 4:3 touchdown:interception ratio), so the ceiling for Iowa's offense with McNamara was already looking a bit lower than fans had been expecting/hoping in the offseason. Replacing McNamara with Hill seems to drop the ceiling for Iowa's offense (and for the team as a whole) even lower, but again -- that ceiling hasn't been very high at any point this season. But the other issue is that, McNamara or no McNamara, the Big Ten West remains a very weak division this season. A strong defense, opportunistic special teams, and an offense that can contribute 14 to 17 points per game might be enough to prevail over the other scuffling teams in the division.

That factor is why this weekend's game looms so large -- whoever wins between Iowa and Wisconsin will have a leg up on the loser in the standings (as well as the head-to-head tiebreaker) and will have effectively have the inside track on winning the division and going to the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. So if Iowa's defense and special teams can carry the load this weekend and Iowa can escape from Madison with a victory, then this season's expectations (contend for a Big Ten West championship) will still be very attainable, even with McNamara sidelined for the season.

What went wrong in the loss to Penn State?

Binder: The short answer is "everything." The longer answer is "Iowa got outplayed in every phase of the game -- offense, defense, and special teams." Penn State has a more talented team and simply overwhelmed Iowa with a patient, methodical offense and a smothering defense. Once the Penn State pass rush got locked in (about halfway through the first quarter), the Iowa offense was all but doomed, as there were simply no viable options to even move the ball, let alone score points. The offensive line was dismantled by a Penn State front seven that either swallowed up any running plays or made life miserable for McNamara.

Iowa couldn't stay on schedule on offense, which is death for this offense, given its enormous struggles on 2nd-and-long and 3rd-and-long. The offense's inability to stay on the field eventually wore down the Iowa defense (Penn State ran 97 plays in that game, 64 more than Iowa) and it was simply exhausted in the second half, when Penn State was able to turn a close-ish game (10-0 at halftime) into a rout (31-0 final score). Penn State's steady gains got bigger and bigger as the game progressed and eventually involved multiple trips to the end zone.

What are the expectations for Deacon Hill in his second career start? 

Binder: I think expectations are somewhat low. Hill went 11 of 27 for 115 yards, one touchdown and one interception against Michigan State after he replaced McNamara early in the game. Last week, in his first career start, Hill went 6 of 21 for 110 yards, one touchdown and one interception against Purdue. Those are not numbers that inspire a great deal of confidence -- especially with Hill set to make his first career road start in Camp Randall, one of the Big Ten's most hostile road venues.

The hope is that Hill has those early start jitters out of the way now, but that might be wishful thinking more than anything. Hill's touch on his throws has been shaky thus far and the only pass-catching option he's displayed strong chemistry with is tight end Erick All. Every Iowa fan would be very pleasantly surprised if Hill has a big game, but a very modest performance is definitely a more realistic expectation.

Luke Fickell mentioned that he wouldn't be surprised to see Cooper DeJean on offense — is that reasonable? 

Binder: Many Iowa fans would very much like that prediction from Luke Fickell to be true -- there's been a steady call for DeJean to see action on offense for well over a year now. Kirk Ferentz has steadfastly rejected that idea and seems likely to continue to do so, unless injuries further wreak havoc on Iowa's options at quarterback this season. Ferentz's argument against playing DeJean on offense is that he's a critical part of Iowa's defense (true) and plays a massive number of snaps on that side of the ball, as well as special teams (also true). So it would overwork him to use him on offense as well, which could then diminish his effectiveness on defense.

While there's certainly some truth to Ferentz's argument, Iowa fans aren't going to give up on the hope of seeing DeJean make a cameo appearance on offense, even for 3-5 plays. But I don't think it's at all likely that DeJean will line up on offense against Wisconsin on Saturday.

Much has been made of Brian Ferentz and Iowa's 25 points-per-game quota — has their been tangible improvement on offense this season? 

Binder: Tangible improvement? If you measure that by improvement in various offensive statistical categories, then no -- there has been very little improvement in that regard. In fact, Iowa's offense is even worse in many respects this season. Iowa ranks 107th in scoring offense (21.8 ppg), 132nd in the total offense (249.2 ypg), 127th in yards per play (4.49 ypp), 131st in passing offense (129.8 ypg), 131st in yards per attempt (5.3 ypa), 132nd in passer rating (97.4), 131st in third down conversions (26.9%), 108th in rushing offense (119.8 ypg), and 96th in yards per carry (3.8 ypc).

To the extent there's been any reason for optimism on offense it's been in the form of the running game, which has flashed strong play at times, including last week against Purdue (over 180 yards and over 5.0 yards per carry). The Iowa OL has also been fairly good at protecting the quarterback this season, whether it's McNamara or Hill -- the Hawkeyes have allowed 11.0 sacks so far, which ranks 58th nationally. Still, the overall numbers are impossible to ignore -- this was one of the worst power conference offenses in history last season and it's just as bad for the most part this season.

Only three Hawkeye receivers have a catch this season. Is that a result of scheme or something else?

Binder: There's no deliberate intent to sideline receivers in the passing game as much as Iowa has this season -- wide receivers have been the recipients of several targets over the last two games, in fact. Those targets didn't lead to actual receptions due to a combination of drops and overthrown passes. Still, the offensive scheme has played a role in limiting opportunities for the receivers as well. Iowa plays a lot of two tight end sets, which limits the available snaps for receivers -- in those two tight end sets, there's only room for one receiver (if there's also a fullback in the formation) or two receivers (if there's no fullback in the formation). Iowa doesn't play a lot of offensive sets with three or four wide receivers. If you limit the snaps for receivers, then that's going to have the knock-on effect of limiting their ability to rack up receiving numbers.

That said, the incredibly limited role of receivers in the Iowa offense has been a talking point all season (it flared up again after last week's game against Purdue, in which Iowa receivers had zero receptions) and there's a good chance that Iowa will try to design some plays to get the ball in the hands of the receivers in this game. It's difficult to win many games if tight ends and running backs are the only players catching the ball and the Iowa offensive coaching staff isn't blind to that reality. How effective any efforts to feed the ball to Iowa's receivers might be is very much TBD.

Besides the aforementioned DeJean, who are the key players on this Iowa defense? 

Binder: DeJean is the best player on Iowa's defense -- and the best player on Iowa's team, full stop. His presence in the secondary is a key part of what has made Iowa's defense so stout over the past two seasons. His strong coverage has started to pay off in the form of turnovers of late as well; DeJean recorded zero interceptions in the first four games of the season (after notching five last season), but he's had an interception in each of the last two games and nearly scored his fourth career pick-six a week ago.

Two other defenders to know are MLB Jay Higgins and CASH Sebastian Castro. Higgins had the unenviable task of replacing Jack Campbell's leadership and production at MLB, but he's done an admirable job in both categories. He's a well-respected teammate with the ability to organize the defense well from the mike position and in terms of production, he has 74 tackles in six games -- 19 more than than any other defender in the Big Ten. Iowa's defensive scheme funnels tackling opportunities to the linebackers, but Higgins has made the most of those opportunities. Castro plays the CASH role, which is a hybrid linebacker-safety position that's on the field whenever Iowa goes with a 4-2-5 formation on defense, which it does often. This season Castro has shown a marked improvement in his ability to read offensive plays and react quickly, which has allowed him to make more plays -- he has 3.0 tackles for loss, as well as two interceptions (including a pick-six), and a handful of pass deflections. Outside of DeJean, he's been Iowa's most consistent playmaker in the secondary.

Prediction for the game? 

Binder: Iowa's ability to win this game is dependent on the Hawkeyes' ability to ugly this game up. Iowa's best shot to win is to turn this game into a low-scoring, hard-hitting, defense-first slog for 60 minutes. The Hawkeyes have shown an uncanny knack for winning games like that, so keeping it close against the Badgers is paramount. Iowa has to limit big plays on defense and the Hawkeyes need to do enough on offense to pick up a few first downs and stay on the field. The defense is coming off a six sack effort against Purdue as well as forcing a total of six turnovers against Michigan State and Purdue; the Hawkeyes will need an effective pass rush again on Saturday and they'll probably need to force at least 2-3 turnovers to have a shot at the win.

All of that is technically possible, but seems like a tall ask for Iowa, especially on the road. What's more likely is that the offense again struggles to move the ball for long stretches of the game, which eventually leads to the defense getting tired and Wisconsin pulling away in the second half.

Wisconsin 20, Iowa 10

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