BadgerBlitz.com brings back it's Behind Enemy Lines series, where we get an opposing beat writer's take on the upcoming matchup.
For Week 5, we spoke to Doug Bucshon of OrangeAndBlueNews.com, and touched on Illinois' expectations for 2022, a revamped offense led by Tommy DeVito, and more.
What were the expectations for the Illini headed into 2022, and have they changed four weeks in?
Bucshon: Most preseason prognosticators expected Illinois to be on the bowl game bubble, so the record is about what was expected at this point. Now, it gets harder.
Illinois faces three tough divisional opponents beginning with Wisconsin on Saturday in Madison, then home games against Iowa and a surging Minnesota. We’ll find out what this team is really made of over that span.
Defensively, Illinois is all we expected them to be and a little better. Defensive coordinator Ryan Walters in one of the up-and-comers in the game and he has that unit playing with swagger. If there’s a surprise on defense, it's that they have more depth that previously thought.
On the other side of the ball, most expected Illinois to be more run-heavy than what they’ve shown. New coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. had talked about being more balanced, and the numbers show they’ve made strides.
Rohrer's Reaction: Illinois is right about where I expected them to be through four weeks. Needing three wins to become bowl-eligible, Illinois' best chances look like Nebraska, Northwestern, and a reeling Michigan State. The Illini also have a chance to help out Wisconsin in the race for the west, hosting Iowa and Minnesota in back-to-back weeks.
How healthy are the Illini headed into the game?
Bucshon: Illinois is near 100 percent. No. 2 running back Josh McCray will probably be held out another week as he rehabs an injured knee. He’s back practicing, but probably won’t be full-go until the Iowa game on October 8.
Starting outside linebacker Ezekiel Holmes is out for the season with a torn ACL. His loss has been softened by the emergence of true freshman Gabe Jacas.
Freshman wide receiver Shawn Miller was also lost for the season after going down with an undisclosed injury in Week 3 against Virginia that required surgery. He was in the rotation.
Rohrer's Reaction: The Illini have most of their key players, as do the Badgers. The secondary, easily Wisconsin's most injury-ravaged group, has been forced to adjust to life without Hunter Wohler and Alexander Smith. Against a passing attack like Ohio State's, that's an enormous problem. Against Illinois, it shouldn't be.
What've been the keys to quarterback Tommy DeVito's early-season success?
Bucshon: He’s been an accurate passer when he has time to set up and throw, and he makes good decisions with the ball. He also adds a dimension with his ability to pick up key third downs with his feet.
According to PFF, DeVito has 119 drop-backs when he has a clean pocket. On those plays, he has completed 81 of 110 passes (73.%) for 878 yards and 7 touchdowns.
The numbers take a nosedive when DeVito is under pressure. He doesn’t make many game-changing negative plays, but he’s been sacked nine sacks in four games and he’s had to throw some balls away or tuck it and run.
Pass protection is my top key for Illinois against Wisconsin. It’s going to be difficult for Illinois to keep Nick Herbig out of the offensive backfield. They can’t let him take over the game.
Rohrer's Reaction: Getting pressure on DeVito, especially from someone not named Nick Herbig, will be imperative Saturday. The Illini are going to direct a lot of attention at him. Jim Leonhard told reporters that he expects the pass rush to heat up as the Badgers play more Big Ten games, as more opportunities to hunt the quarterback become available. We'll see if his defense can make good on that.
Who's the most explosive player on the Illini offense — Chase Brown, Pat Bryant, someone else?
Bucshon: Slot receiver Isaiah Williams is the most slippery and explosive player. He’s a converted quarterback and former four-star athlete out of St. Louis. The Illini like to get the ball in his hands on quick hitters and put him in one-on-one situations on the edge. He busted loose for a 63-yard TD on a bubble screen last week against Chattanooga.
Sophomore receiver Pat Bryant is more of a long and physical target who can come down with the ball in a crowd. DeVito will take some shots to him over the top of the defense. He can run, but Bryant isn’t really a quick-twitch guy who will get early separation.
Running back Chase Brown gets chunk yards in the running game. Besides leading the nation in rushing yards, he’s also the leader in runs of 10+ yards. He’s capable of breaking off a home run and taking it to the house. Things will get tougher against Wisconsin, though.
For all the success Brown has had, the gap running plays have been stuffed at times. A big key for Illinois is the offensive line getting to the second tier of the Badgers’ defense on the zone plays and creating cut-back lanes for Brown. That will be tough against an athletic group of Wisconsin linebackers.
Rohrer's Reaction: With the tackling issues Wisconsin has had, I'm sure Leonhard and Hank Poteat are accentuating the presence of the elusive Williams. He's a playmaker to keep an eye on. It'll be interesting to see how the Badgers guard Bryant. Do they choose a corner they think can match his physicality to shadow him?
Jer'Zhan Newton has been a tackling machine and has 2.5 sacks already — what does he bring to this Illini defense?
Bucshon: Newton turns speed to power. He’s breaking out as a legit NFL Draft prospect. Newton has always had a great get-off. Over the last couple of years, he’s beefed up without losing any of his initial quickness. He also has a consistent motor and has fined tuned his pass rush moves.
Saturday’s game against the Badgers will be a big test for Newton and his running partner Keith Randolph at the other defensive tackle spot. As usual, Wisconsin is long and powerful across its offensive line. Newton has been impressive. If he can keep it rolling against the Badgers and harass quarterback Graham Mertz, his draft stock will soar.
Rohrer's Reaction: This is a great test for an interior offensive line that's been, shall we say, underwhelming. Center Joe Tippmann hasn't been able to get much push in the running game, and it won't get any easier against Newton. He's the kind of player you have to try to play around and minimize his impact as much as possible. The physical battle in the trenches should be mightily entertaining Saturday, especially in the almost inevitable event that Newton meets Braelon Allen in the A-gap.
Is Kendall Smith the ballhawk the numbers say he is?
Buschon: The veteran Smith is having a solid season and plays a good center field at free safety, but the leader of the secondary is boundary corner Devon Witherspoon. “Spoon” should crack some All-Big Ten teams at the end of the year. He’s a lockdown cover corner and is equally good against the run. Witherspoon is handsy in pass coverage, so sometimes it's about how tight the game is officiated.
Another DB to watch is senior Jartavius Martin at the hybrid STAR position. He’s been a key to the Illini’s success in pass coverage (No. 9 pass defense in the nation). He’s also one of the team’s best tacklers in space. Martin is the Illini’s fourth leading tackler and is tied with Witherspoon with 6 PBU's.
Rohrer's Reaction: This is a perfect example of how interceptions are far from the best way to evaluate a defensive back. Upon a quick glance at the Illini stat sheet, Smith would appear to be the alpha of the secondary with two picks. Interceptions often tell a misleading story. If "Spoon" is in fact a lockdown cover corner, who does he guard Saturday?
What went wrong in the loss to Indiana?
Bucshon: Four turnovers were very costly, limiting the scoring opportunities. It was just the second game in a revamped offense under new coordinator Lunney. They were still fine-tuning things and couldn’t overcome the turnovers, especially the giveaways in the red zone. Indiana also had a huge goal line stand.
Still, Illinois had the win in its grasp late in the 4th quarter before uncharacteristically allowing Indiana to drive the length of the field for what would be the game-winning touchdown with just :25 seconds remaining.
The Illini defense is typically aggressive. They were back on their heals on the last Indiana drive. It was a lessoned learned and I don’t think we’ll see them play soft again.
Rohrer's Reaction: Turnovers and uncharacteristic defensive play leading to a disappointing loss...where have I heard that one before?
Prediction for the game?
Bucshon: Despite the hiccup against Washington State, Wisconsin is a good football team. The Badgers will be a bit too much for Illinois from a physical standpoint, and they’ll be looking to rebound from the loss to Ohio State. I’ll take the home team in what should be an entertaining but fairly low-scoring Big Ten contest. Wisconsin 24, Illinois 14
Rohrer's Reaction: Wisconsin needs to completely shut down either DeVito or Brown. They can't get caught in a run-pass guessing game against this offense. If they do that, though, they're setting themselves up very nicely for a bounce-back victory. Illinois keeps it interesting, but Wisconsin pulls away with their punishing running game.
Wisconsin 31, Illinois 21
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