Can Wisconsin continue its long winning streak -- dating back to 2004 -- against Purdue this weekend, and with that, pick up its first win against a ranked opponent this season?
BadgerBlitz.com presents its weekly "3Cs" series. Senior writers Jake Kocorowski and Benjamin Worgull and staff writer Raul Vazquez each give one area where they are curious, confident and concerned about when UW (3-3 overall, 1-2 Big Ten) takes on No. 25 Purdue (4-2, 2-1) on Saturday (2 p.m. CT, BTN) in West Lafayette.
CURIOUS
Kocorowski: I'm curious to see how Wisconsin's ground game looks against Purdue. The Badgers ran for 391 and 198 against Illinois and Army the last two weeks, respectively, with the Black Knights coming into the contest third in the FBS in yards allowed per contest.
UW's offense appears to have a potent one-two punch of Chez Mellusi and Braelon Allen, but the offense will need to contain George Karlaftis and a Purdue defense that is allowing only 116.2 yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry. The most the Boilermakers have allowed is 175 on 42 carries against Illinois on Sept. 25. No other team has accumulated more than 125 in the other five games.
The Badgers appear to have found something consistent for their offense. Will it continue to gain steam, or will it be derailed by the Boilermakers?
Worgull: I want to know which Purdue team will show up on Saturday afternoon. The Boilermakers weren’t anything special in their first two conference games, a yawning 13-9 home victory over Illinois and a 20-13 loss to Minnesota in a rain-soaked Ross-Ade Stadium. So, go figure that Purdue dominated No.2 Iowa on the road for a 24-7 victory last weekend. The difference was Purdue took care of the football.
The Boilers committed two turnovers in each of their first two Big Ten games on the opponent’s side of the field, including a fourth-quarter interception on Minnesota’s 27-yard line with 47 seconds left. Purdue committed only one turnover at Iowa (a fumble) and promptly forced a three-and-out, resulting in good field position that led to a short touchdown drive.
Will Purdue be energized by its performance and assert itself as the team to beat in the Big Ten West by finally ending its 15-game losing streak to the Badgers? Or will the Boilermakers follow in Iowa’s footsteps and suffer a hangover from the previous week’s big win?
Vazquez: Following an impressive showing against Army, I wonder what defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard has up his sleeve for David Bell. Purdue's stud wide receiver is coming off an all-time performance against Iowa in which he hauled in 11 catches for 240 yards and one touchdown. That showing capped an outstanding five game stretch in which he’s gone over 100 yards in four of five games.
Against the top two passing offenses Wisconsin has faced it has given up big plays to opposing receivers. Jahan Dotson of Penn State caught five passes for 102 yards and a touchdown, and Kevin Austin Jr. tallied six receptions for 76 yards and two touchdowns for the Fighting Irish. Does Faion Hicks or Caesar Williams shadow Bell? Is help shaded toward his side? If so, how much attention is given?
CONFIDENT
Kocorowski: I'm confident in Wisconsin's front seven taking on Purdue's rushing attack. UW, despite the 179 yards allowed against Army, still ranks among the nation's best against the run (third, with 64.3 yards allowed per game).
Purdue averages 88.8 rushing yards per game on just 2.8 yards per attempt. It gained 187 yards against lowly UConn, but Jeff Brohm's offense has not registered more than 88 in its other five contests.
How Wisconsin defends Purdue's pass-heavy scheme is the main storyline (and concern) of this game, but it should be able to stifle this area of the offense.
Worgull: I don’t know what kind of pro he’ll be, but tight end Jake Ferguson is going to be as reliable of a player a franchise will find. His steady work at Wisconsin has mostly gone unnoticed this season because of the issues surrounding the quarterback, the running game and the offensive line, but Ferguson just keeps coming to work and producing. Ferguson led the offense with four catches for 58 yards against Army, pushing his school record for consecutive games with at least one catch to 40. Since arriving on campus, Ferguson has caught a pass in every game he has played.
This season, Ferguson has caught 20 of 26 targets thrown in his direction. That 76.9 percent completion percentage is highest on the team among players with at least four catches. Among active FBS tight ends, Ferguson is third in catches (119) and fifth in yards (1,347). That’s not a ton of yards (he’s 22nd all-time among TEs at UW) but that is a lot of consistency for a Wisconsin offense that has a lot of inconsistency over the last two seasons.
Vazquez: This is far from a hot take but I am sold on Braelon Allen not only sticking, but also becoming a damn good running back. Leonhard won’t be getting the former four-star recruit on his side of the ball anytime soon, and the emergence of Allen has helped salvage a room that has lost two of its top three backs this fall.
Allen ran for more than 100 yards for the second week in a row and received at least 16 carries in both contests over that stretch, showing the trust the coaching staff has in him. Ironically, a 16th carry is a mark Jalen Berger never saw with the Badgers. Allen will still have the growing pains that come with being a 17-year old true freshman, but the flashes he has shown are top-notch.
CONCERNED
Kocorowski: Ben discusses the two passing games below, so I'll leave that to him. The one area that draws concern is turnovers for Wisconsin. UW generated a key takeaway in the fourth quarter against Army, but it has only created four through six games (Raul will have more on this side of the ball below).
On the flip side, the Badgers have coughed up the ball 15 times (nine interceptions, six fumbles lost). The Boilermakers have only created six turnovers -- all interceptions -- in six games (while throwing six interceptions and losing two fumbles for a -2 turnover margin).
Worgull: The Boilermakers are first in the conference in points per game allowed (13.3), and Graham Mertz commits a turnover no matter who, where or when he is playing (11 turnovers in six games). Points are going to be at a premium, which puts a lot of pressure on Wisconsin’s secondary to slow a Purdue passing offense that ranks second in the conference at 326.0 yards per game.
Even though Wisconsin is first in the conference in pass defense (161.5 yards per game), the Badgers have faced opponents in their last two games that don’t throw the ball (Army attempted six passes for 87 yards) or can’t throw it (Illinois is last 153.7 yards per game). Truthfully, the Wisconsin secondary hasn’t been that impressive defending the pass. Penn State – the league’s No.4 pass offense – threw for 247 yards in the season opener, while Michigan – the league’s No.11 pass offense – threw for 253 yards and three scores. Now the Badgers are tasked with slowing quarterback Aidan O’Connell (back-to-back 300-yard games) and receiver David Bell (11 catches, 240 yards, one touchdown vs. Iowa).
Considering the lack of field-flipping plays in the first six games (two interceptions) by this unit, I don’t think this matchup favors UW.
Vazquez: Adding to the point that Ben made, Wisconsin’s defense has been stout this season. But given the monumental struggles of the offense, you’d like for the defense to create more turnovers. With a turnover margin of -10, UW is dead last at 130th in college football with its defense creating just four turnovers (two interceptions and two fumble recoveries) to the 14 by the offense. It seems almost unfair to ask for more from the defense, but you want to see the group come down with some of these interceptions they have been in position for.