BadgerBlitz.com's weekly feature, "The 3Cs," returns for the 2021 season. The staff takes a look at one thing we're curious, confident and concerned about heading into Wisconsin's divisional showdown against Illinois.
Senior writers Jake Kocorowski and Benjamin Worgull, along with staff writer Raul Vazquez, each give their thoughts on the aforementioned topics for this week's contest.
CURIOUS
Kocorowski: Curious just how Wisconsin (1-3 overall, 0-2 Big Ten) looks down in Champaign this weekend. The last two times in Memorial Stadium, UW has not looked sharp.
The Badgers gained a mere 303 yards of offense and busted out what was technically a Michael Deiter touchdown run in a 24-10 win. Then two years ago, the Illini -- then led by the since-ousted Lovie Smith -- shocked undefeated Wisconsin in a 24-23 win on its homecoming weekend.
Illinois (2-4, 1-2) started off the Bret Bielema era with a win over Nebraska, but then dropped four straight before rebounding against non-conference opponent Charlotte. With Wisconsin needing questions to be answered, what direction will Saturday’s game go?
Worgull: In last week’s column, my curious section ended with my pondering what first-year athletic director Chris McIntosh thought about Paul Chryst and the football team’s struggles this season. My musing was answered when it was revealed Chryst got a raise to $5.25 million that was approved Sept.1, with McIntosh basically saying Chryst isn’t going anywhere. To be fair, Chryst shouldn’t be on the hot seat with a 57-22 record in seven seasons, including 37-15 in Big Ten play.
But with the Badgers sitting at 1-3 and 0-2 in conference play, one starts to wonder not if they will win the Big Ten but if they can scratch out enough wins to become bowl eligible. With eight games left (four at home, four on the road), it’s hard to see any game as a guaranteed victory this season when Wisconsin is the lowest scoring offense in the conference and its calling-card defense just gave up 38 points to Michigan.
Vazquez: Quarterback Graham Mertz was listed as questionable on Monday and Chryst said he practiced this week during his availability on Thursday. If he is under center, I am curious to see if Mertz can rekindle the spark he had in the second quarter against Michigan.
After starting the game 0-of-4, Mertz would go 8-of-10 for 115 yards in the second quarter, including a pair of nice throws to wide receiver Chimere Dike to end the half. Unfortunately, a hit knocked him out for all but one drive in the second half. Wisconsin has had some ugly memories down in Memorial Stadium, but Illinois is the program Mertz lit up in his first career start.
[editor's note: Chryst noted on Thursday that both Mertz and Ferguson practiced this week. "He's been able to practice, and that part's been good, so expecting to have everyone there," Chryst said of Mertz. "Ferg's been able to practice. That part's all been good."]
CONFIDENT
Kocorowski: I’m confident in how Wisconsin’s rush defense will stack up against Illinois’ ground game. UW leads the nation in least yards allowed (just over 45 a contest), and it held a Michigan attack to 110 yards on 2.5 yards per attempt.
Illinois’ offense averages 187 yards on the ground per outing through six games thanks to the duo of Chase Brown (379 yards, 7.3 yards per carry, three touchdowns) and Josh McCray (329, 5.5, one). Brown claimed Big Ten offensive player of the week honors for his 257-yard performance against Charlotte on Oct. 2, while true freshman McCray -- 6-foot-1, and 240 pounds -- ran for 156 yards on 24 carries against Purdue.
Regardless, UW’s MO is to stuff the run, and Illinois’ pass game isn’t Penn State’s or Michigan’s. I expect the unit to keep that tradition up this weekend.
Worgull: There’s not much to be confident about with this team right now (certainly nothing on offense or special teams), but I feel pretty convinced in saying the Badgers have at least three future NFL players starting at linebacker. Inside linebacker Jack Sanborn is having a tremendous start to the season with team-highs in tackles (25) and tackles for loss (5.0) and Leo Chenal has registered 20 tackles in two games.
Easily one of the biggest improvements on this defense is sophomore Nick Herbig, who looked lost at the start of last season, steadily grew throughout the shortened campaign, and has the look of a natural edge rusher through four games this year. Herbig leads the team with 3.5 sacks and registered eight tackles (five solo), a tackle for loss, and a pass breakup against Michigan.
With UW’s defense having no margin for error at this point, having a confident Herbig on the edge and two steady inside linebackers is something defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard can lean on.
Vazquez: Looks like all of us will be looking at the defense in terms of what we’re confident in, and rightfully so. Wisconsin’s secondary doesn’t get much love because of how good the front seven is, but the group has been damn good in their own right. The unit is allowing just 203.8 passing yards per game and on the flip side, quarterback Brandon Peters and the Illini passing attack don’t offer much of a threat. Through six games, Illinois has had just one receiver go over 100 yards and is averaging just 187 yards per game through the air. I would expect a vintage dominant performance from UW’s defense.
CONCERNED
Kocorowski: I’m concerned about the rushing attack. Wisconsin gained 180 and 352 against Penn State and Eastern Michigan, respectively. However, after the idle week, it has struggled mightily. In a stat I've called out at least a couple times recently, the bread and butter of the offense has stacked up only 121 yards on two yards per carry total against Notre Dame and Michigan.
Illinois allows just 125 yards on the ground per contest through six games, and it has not allowed more than 133 since its second contest of the year. If the rushing attack is thwarted once again, can the passing game step up to provide a boost? Both phases of the offense have been inconsistent through four games.
Worgull: As bad as the start of the season has been for Wisconsin, one can somewhat justify losing to Penn State, Notre Dame, and Michigan – three teams with a combined 14-1 record that have all been in the top-10 this season. There should be no excuse for losing to Illinois, which has lost four of five with the only win coming in a 24-14 home struggle over Charlotte. However, the Badgers potentially not having reliable tight end Jake Ferguson (chest) could be an issue for whoever the quarterback is.
Mertz started to find a rhythm in the second quarter until he was knocked from the game with a chest injury and taken to the hospital as a precaution. Fans clamoring for Chase Wolf got their wish, but Wolf went 3-of-8 for 52 yards with a touchdown, interception, and fumble. In the end, UW managed just 210 yards of offense and is ranked 99th in the county in total offense (352.5 yards per game).
Neither quarterback has solidified the starter position and, since it’s unlikely Danny Vanden Boom will get a shot, the Badgers will have to figure out how their malfunctioning offense can outwit Illinois and former UW coach Bret Bielema.
Vazquez: Through four games I have yet to tab the offensive line as one of my concerns, but those struggles were on full display once again against the Wolverines. For as much backlash as Mertz has gotten for failing to live up to his recruiting rankings, the same can be said for a unit filled with talent, at least on paper. The group has given Mertz little time to work, which is brutal for a quarterback who desperately needs to stay on schedule. On the ground, the line paved the way for running backs to run for a mere 43 yards against Michigan.