We sit less than two days away from Wisconsin and Arizona State clashing in Sin City for the 2021 SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl.
UW (8-4, 6-3 Big Ten) and ASU (8-4, 6-3 Pac-12) hold identical records, but only one program will finish with a ninth victory to close out this season.
BadgerBlitz.com presents our last 3Cs of the 2021 season. Senior writers Benjamin Worgull and Jake Kocorowski, along with staff writer Raul Vazquez, each provide one area of curiosity, confidence and concern heading into Thursday night's bowl contest (9:30 p.m. CT, ESPN).
CURIOUS
Kocorowski: I’m curious how UW will attempt to bottle up quarterback Jayden Daniels. Daniels’ dual-threat nature will be a challenge with his arm and his legs. Entering Thursday’s game, he has completed over 66% of his passes for 2,222 yards with 10 touchdowns to nine interceptions. He also has carried the ball 119 times for 670 yards with six rushing scores.
I’ve said this earlier this week, but I don’t feel Arizona State has the firepower through the air like Nebraska did to complement Adrian Martinez. That said, Daniels – a former four-star prospect and top-60 player in the nation for the 2019 class – could give Jim Leonhard’s defense a run for its money in extending plays or creating magic out of broken ones.
Worgull: I am curious if this game will even be played. Looking around the sports landscape, it’s not hard to see how COVID-19 is altering the schedule (damn you, omicron!). NHL has canceled large swaths of games, the NBA and NFL professionals in health-and-safety protocols is growing by the day, college basketball games continue to be affected, and five bowl games have been canceled, including UCLA pulling out of the Holiday Bowl just hours before kick off.
UW hasn’t been immune to the outbreak. The women’s basketball team has had two games canceled and the men’s team has one. UW athletic director Chris McIntosh didn’t travel to Las Vegas because he contracted the disease, and it is unknown how many members of the football team have been affected (UW hasn’t released that information).
It’s got to the point now where I won’t believe this game is actually going to be played until midway through the second quarter.
Vazquez: What kind of lasting impression do tailback Braelon Allen and quarterback Graham Mertz leave before heading into 2022?
When next season rolls around, the duo will very likely be the starters at their respective positions. In the last game of his spectacular true freshman season, does Allen, who ran for over 100 yards in seven straight contests, show up? The Wisconsin native was seen limping off the field several times late in the year but consistently said he was fine. The wear and tear of the season likely showed up in the regular season finale against Minnesota, where Allen carried the ball 17 times for 47 yards. Does the 17-year old cap off his first year with an exclamation mark, or leave some minor questions heading into his second year where he’ll likely be a workhorse right off the bat?
As for Mertz, his finale likely won’t impact the plan at the position but with the departure of his top receivers (Kendric Pryor, Danny Davis, Jake Ferguson) looming, he’ll be asked to carry much more of the load. Can he leave a positive impression to end an up-and-down redshirt sophomore campaign?
CONFIDENT
Kocorowski: Raul took my initial thought so let’s flip it to the other side of the ball. I think Wisconsin will be able to run on Arizona State’s defense. Maybe this is my second “bold prediction” of the week, but even with at least one starter on the line potentially out this week, I think they respond in a big way after being held to 62 yards on 2.8 yards per attempt against Minnesota.
Arizona State gives up 128.7 rushing yards per game, good for 32nd in the nation as of Tuesday morning. That said, there should be an opportunity for UW to gain some yardage. Four Sun Devil foes have accumulated 180 or more rushing yards this season -- Colorado (183), UCLA (190), Utah (208) and Oregon State (237). The latter three all sit within the top 20 nationally in rushing offense.
Plus, Herm Edwards’ defense will be without standout linebacker Darien Butler, who declared for the NFL Draft on Christmas Eve. Going out on a limb, but I say Wisconsin gets over 200 yards on the ground during the Thursday night tilt.
Worgull: Wisconsin’s last two bowl wins came in the Pinstripe Bowl and the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, two postseason bowls that easily fall into the second-tier. UW won those games by a combined score of 77-31. While fans likely won’t be having massive watch parties for this game, or clamoring to scarf up bowl merchandise, the Badgers take these games seriously.
The proof of that is the fact that every healthy player will play, as no UW player has opted out. That can’t be said for Arizona State, which has seen its two top tailbacks, two starting corners, and a starter linebacker opt out or transfer.
That’s not a guarantee that Wisconsin is going to win (even though I believe they will by double figures), but the Badgers and their large senior class are approaching this as a must-win situation.
Vazquez: Wisconsin’s stout run defense will have similar success against the Sun Devils.
Arizona State boasts an above average rushing attack that ran for 202.3 yards per game, but the group will be down their top two ball carriers for the Las Vegas Bowl. Rachaad White -- the team’s leading rusher -- has opted out to prep for the NFL Draft and Deamonte Trayanum, its No. 2 running back, elected to transfer. That leaves the Sun Devils with redshirt freshman Daniyel Ngata carrying the load for their running game.
Ngata, a four-star recruit coming out of high school, has 286 yards and three touchdowns on the year but hasn’t received more than five carries since early September and has tallied double-digit carries just once this year.
CONCERNED
Kocorowski: Going more along the lines of a particular stat here, and I don’t think I’m very concerned given the opt-out of White from Arizona State, but there’s been a trend in Wisconsin’s last two regular season games of opponents being efficient in one key category.
The Sun Devils convert on third downs 44.1% of the time, which ranks around the Top 30 in the FBS as of Tuesday morning. The Badgers sit third in the country for third-down conversion defense at 26.6%. Again, even with ASU’s top offensive weapon not playing, it will be worth watching just how UW rights the ship from their last two games.
Why? Because Nebraska and Minnesota combined to convert 9-of-20 (45%) third-down opportunities against Wisconsin in late November, a far cry from the standard Leonhard and his defense have set this season and overall during his five-season tenure as defensive coordinator.
Worgull: I cringed when some Wisconsin players compared Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels to former Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez. That alone should get people’s attention immediately, considering Martinez averaged 318.3 passing yards with 149 total rushing yards in three games against Wisconsin.
Daniels has 2,222 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, and nine interceptions this season and has made a big impact on the ground with 670 rushing yards and six scores. Even without his two top running backs, Daniels has some talented receivers in tight end Curtis Hodges (18.7 yards per catch), receiver LV Bunkley-Shelton (12.8 yards per catch), and receiver Ricky Pearsall (team-best 44 catches).
Containing Daniels, who could try and shoulder more of the burden offensively, is paramount for the Badgers. After struggling for years to slow Martinez, can they do better against an act-alike of his?
Vazquez: Concern may be too harsh of a label given the unknowns but just who will be unavailable for UW?
It had been reported by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel this weekend that the program was dealing with some positive COVID-19 tests, but it has yet to be seen just who isn’t able to suit up.
John Chenal, the team’s lone fullback on the depth chart, is not in Las Vegas, according to reports. Tight end Jack Eschenbach (injury) is reportedly in line to miss the game. The Wisconsin State Journal also reported on Monday that right tackle Logan Bruss, center Joe Tippmann and wide receiver/kickoff return specialist Stephan Bracey had yet to practice during the week. At fullback, multiple outlets are reporting that redshirt freshman Riley Nowakowski has seen work there.
Bowl games are always funky given opt outs, injuries and now add in the element of COVID that may allow four or five backups to see significant reps.
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