Published Nov 11, 2021
BadgerBlitz.com's 3Cs: Northwestern vs. Wisconsin
BadgerBlitz.com Staff
Staff

No. 18 Wisconsin continues to put the pieces together during its five-game winning streak, but a Big Ten West rival approaches in two days. UW (6-3 overall, 4-2 Big Ten) still holds its own path to Indianapolis and a division championship, and though Northwestern (3-6, 1-5) is struggling, it has given the cardinal and white trouble in Madison since 2015.

BadgerBlitz.com presents its weekly "3Cs" roundtable. Senior writers Jake Kocorowski and Benjamin Worgull, along with staff writer Raul Vazquez, highlight one area of curiosity, confidence and concern when Wisconsin hosts Pat Fitzgerald's program on Saturday inside Camp Randall Stadium (11 a.m. CT, ESPN2).

CURIOUS

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Kocorowski: I’m curious if Wisconsin will be able to put together a solid streak of 3rd-down conversion success. Against Rutgers, it converted 6-of-12 opportunities on that down in moving the chains. However UW was 6-of-16 against Iowa but only 1-of-11 at Purdue. The only other contest Paul Chryst’s offense was over 50% in this category was its 7-of-13 performance at Illinois when it kicked off its five-game winning streak.

Northwestern allows opponents to convert 41.8% of their 3rd-down opportunities. That currently ranks tied for 95th in the nation with Boise State and 13th out of 14 Big Ten teams as of Tuesday evening. Wisconsin saw its offense balance itself well against Rutgers last weekend -- can that help move the chains successfully once again?

Update, Nov. 12: StatBroadcast reported on its database that UW went 7-of-12 on third down; however, the correct stats show 6-of-12.

Worgull: I am curious how many wide receivers are going to get involved Saturday. Last weekend against a bad Rutgers defense, Wisconsin’s group of wideouts – salivating all season to get some offense going – were impact players, especially its top three targets. Senior Danny Davis pulled in a career-long 72-yard touchdown catch, senior Kendric Pryor grabbed four passes for 72 yards with an uber-athletic touchdown catch in the end zone, and Chimere Dike matched his career-high with three catches for a career-best 55 yards. A result of airing it out, quarterback Graham Mertz had a pass efficiency rating of 244.1, the second-highest by a Big Ten quarterback in a conference game this season (minimum 15 attempts).

UW might not need to pass a ton Saturday, not with Northwestern ranked last in the league and 125th nationally in rushing defense (224.6 yards per game, 5.4 yards per carry). But if the Badgers want to shock all of us and win a Big Ten title this season, Mertz needs to show the threat of a pass. For the first time this season, he did that last weekend.

Vazquez: I am going to be watching what the running back room looks like after Braelon Allen. We know Allen will continue to bring his physical and patient style of running to the offense but after him it looks like it’ll be a lot of Brady Schipper and Julius Davis, both of which have never seen a ton of meaningful reps.

Davis saw a considerable amount of playing time for the first time in his career this past Saturday with his seven carries for 32 yards. Prior to that, he had only had one carry in his carry. Brady Schipper has seen more work but not by much with 19 carries on the season for 83 yards. Chez Mellusi was listed as questionable in the initial injury report but Wisconsin is infamously secretive with injuries. If Mellusi does miss time, what was once a strength and deep running back room could very quickly turn into "The Braelon Allen Show."

CONFIDENCE

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Kocorowski: I’m confident in Wisconsin’s rushing offense against one of the nation’s worst defenses against the run. The Badgers average 222.6 yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry entering Saturday’s contest, while the Wildcats give up 224.6 yards per contest on 5.4 yards per attempt. Nationally speaking, it will be the country’s 13th-ranked ground game against the 125th rush defense.

This will likely again be another physical matchup within the Big Ten West that has a history of being a tight battle in recent memory. However, I feel very confident Braelon Allen’s 100-yard plus streak on the ground continues, and if Mellusi cannot play, I believe Schipper, Davis and Jackson Acker could step up against this defense that no longer is led by former Wisconsin assistant Mike Hankwitz.

Worgull: Wisconsin’s defense has limited opponents to an average of just 4.9 plays per drive this season, matching Western Michigan for the best mark of any FBS team. The Badgers and Broncos are the only teams allowing an average of less than 5.0 plays per possession. The Wildcats have played three quarterbacks, a trio that has struggled to move the ball, not throw interceptions, and find reliable playmakers to create explosive plays.

Wisconsin’s defense has limited opponents to an average of just 4.9 plays per drive this season, matching Western Michigan for the best mark of any FBS team. The Badgers and Broncos are the only teams allowing an average of less than five plays per possession. Wisconsin should feast against this offense.

Vazquez: For this Saturday I feel confident they can follow a similar script to the one they followed in their win over Purdue with Mertz tallying just eight passes but for the final stretch of the season, I am confident the passing attack can be competent.

Granted it was against a lackluster Rutgers squad, but there were encouraging signs. With the stout rushing attack, the play action fakes left targets wide open for Mertz to step in and deliver a nice throw. For the second straight game, the offensive line did not give up a sack with QB1 in the game, and in turn, allowed their quarterback to set his feet and fire off a throw in rhythm.

On the receiving end, a deep wide receiver room was finally able to show off their talent and playmaking ability. On the first drive of the game, Mertz forced it into Jake Ferguson and they realized Rutgers was bracketing Ferguson, leaving the wide receivers on the outside with single coverage and they each made key plays. The touchdowns to Pryor and Davis were examples of his guys making plays and Dike had all three of his catches go for a first down -- two of which were third-down conversions. Mertz didn’t have many throws or even plays Saturday where he made it happen on his own, but these were encouraging signs that can translate to the final few games.

CONCERN

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Kocorowski: Not sure if this is a concern, but as I mentioned earlier, Wisconsin taking on Northwestern in the past three meetings in Madison -- 2015, 2017 and 2019 -- have been quite close. Paul Chryst’s first season saw UW lose 13-7 on the now-infamous Jazz Peavy non-catch (or “Jazz Caught It” game for the cardinal and white faithful). The Wildcats battled back during the fourth quarter in 2017 but still lost 33-24, while 2019 ended with another nine-point loss for Pat Fitzgerald’s program in a 24-15 decision.

Wisconsin is a considerable favorite in this contest -- a 24.5-point favorite as of Tuesday evening on The Action Network -- but will things stay tight in Camp Randall Stadium this weekend?

Worgull: The temperature on Saturday is expected to be cloudy with a high of 38 degrees, a 15% chance of rain/show and 12 mile per hour winds. I’m worried about freezing on my 15-minute walk to and from the stadium.

Normally one could make an argument that after last week’s performance, the Badgers have already set their sights on Minnesota in the regular season final for the Big Ten West championship, which would make this an infamous trap game. Will UW take this game for granted? I find it hard to believe they will, considering the leadership on this team, but coming out flat and not finding a rhythm (something we’ve seen this season in a variety of forms) is the only main concern I have in a game that should be a blowout.

Vazquez: Outside of injuries piling up as the season goes on, Wisconsin is hitting their stride at the right time and putting themselves in position to play in Indianapolis. Staying along the same lines as Ben and Jake, these final three games of the regular season against Northwestern, Nebraska and Minnesota likely won’t present much of a challenge for the Badgers. You would have liked the schedule to not have been so top heavy.

On the one hand, not that UW has figured things out and is playing well, this iteration of the Badgers won’t run into stiff competition again until they meet a top ten team in either of Michigan, Michigan State or Ohio State. On the flip side, if they had chance to play a Penn State or Notre Dame when things weren’t so muddled for their offensive line and Mertz, they might be standing with only one or two losses and be talking about a return to the Rose Bowl, or dare I say be a dark horse to enter the College Football Playoff conversation.

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