Wisconsin and Minnesota renew a rivalry this weekend with a lot at stake. The Badgers (8-3 overall, 6-2 Big Ten) hold a 62-60-8 all-time mark against the Gophers (7-4, 5-3), and along with Paul Bunyan's Axe, a divisional championship is on the line.
BadgerBlitz.com brings back its weekly "3Cs" column. Senior writers Jake Kocorowski and Benjamin Worgull, along with staff writer Raul Vazquez, each highlight one area of curiosity, confidence and concern when Wisconsin faces Minnesota on Saturday inside Huntington Bank Stadium (3 p.m. CT, FOX).
CURIOUS
Kocorowski: I am curious to see how Braelon Allen and the Wisconsin rushing attack fares against a very good Minnesota defense. The Gophers rank 12th in the FBS in rushing defense, allowing only 103.6 yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry. The Badgers sit atop the Big Ten and ninth overall in the nation in averaging 229.4 yards per contest. Allen has gone over the 100-yard mark in seven straight contests and now is up to 1,062 yards on the season -- 1,013 coming during this key stretch.
I do feel Wisconsin will be able to run on this Minnesota front seven. The Gophers have given up 141 or more rushing yards in three of its last four games. Northwestern (80th in the nation in rushing offense), Illinois (61st) and Indiana (109th) all went over that milestone.
Vazquez: I am curious to see how Minnesota attacks Wisconsin’s defense. For the first time all season, Jim Leonhard’s group looked mediocre at best against Nebraska. Do the Gophers try to mimic some of the same actions utilized by the Huskers to have success against a stout Badgers defense? What kind of adjustments, if any, does Leonhard come up with?
I don’t expect Minnesota to have success, but I am curious if any teams look to borrow what Nebraska did. The Gophers don’t have the same personnel and Tanner Morgan doesn’t offer anything close to the threat that Adrian Martinez does with his legs, either. It will be tough for them to do so, even if they wanted to, but something to keep an eye on.
Worgull: Will Tanner Morgan have one more great Big Ten game left in him? The fifth-year senior is coming to the end of his third full season as the Gophers starting quarterback and has had a stellar career for the program. He has a program-record 25 wins as a starter (against 12 losses) and his 61.2% completion rate (first), 7,764 yards (second), and 55 touchdowns (tied-second) cement his place in the program.
Morgan has performed well in this rivalry, throwing for two touchdowns in last year’s UW overtime win, 296 yards and two touchdowns in Minneapolis in 2019, and was the quarterback of record when the Gophers ended their 14-game losing streak in the series back in 2018. His issues the last two years have been turnovers, committing three of them, and continues to be a problem this year with seven interceptions. Will Wisconsin be able to pressure him into more bad decisions, or can Morgan be that steady quarterback the Gophers need?
CONFIDENT
Kocorowski: Feeling confident Wisconsin’s defense bounces back against Minnesota. After giving up 452 yards to Nebraska -- 351 through the air via the arm of Martinez -- Leonhard’s unit will have a different test in stopping a P.J. Fleck offense that churns out 204.6 yards per game rushing. That’s good for third in the Big Ten and 23rd in the nation.
Of course, Wisconsin ranks first in the FBS in rushing yards allowed, giving up a mere 64.3 per contest. Only four opponents have gone over that 100-yard threshold this season. Stop the run, which will be a test with this veteran Gopher offensive line, and Minnesota averages only 163.5 yards through the air per outing -- good for 117th in the FBS. There’s no Rashod Bateman or Tyler Johnson in the Gophers’ wide receiver room as seen in Huntington Bank Stadium in 2019, so the Badgers’ MO of stopping the run first will be paramount here in pulling out a win. I think they do so.
Vazquez: I feel good about the offensive line’s ability to protect quarterback Graham Mertz. Joe Rudolph's group has continued to improve and has played their style of football late in the season. Since allowing 10 sacks in the first four games, they’ve allowed just five in the last seven.
Now they face a Gophers defense that has tallied just 20 sacks. Of those 20, 12 have come in three games, and the Minnesota defense has totaled no more than one sack in any of the last three games. The unit only has three tackles for loss apiece the last three contests.
Worgull: I agree with Jake and Raul, as I think Wisconsin will thrive in both areas. I’ll add that I feel good about the Badgers’ receivers and tight end Jake Ferguson being able to win their one-on-one matchups. Ferguson had a career-best 92 yards against Nebraska last weekend and has proven to be a reliable option. Danny Davis III didn’t have a catch against the Huskers but had nine catches for 177 yards and two touchdowns in the three prior games. Kendric Pryor has been just as good with eight catches, 148 yards and two scores over the last three games.
While I’m aware Minnesota has held eight of its 10 opponents this season below what their season total offense average was entering the contest, something about the balance of the Badgers’ offense over the last three weeks doesn’t have me real worried about the Gophers.
CONCERN
Kocorowski: I’m not overly concerned about any one specific topic, but I do feel whoever turns the ball over the most will lose this game. Wisconsin scuffled earlier this year in coughing up possessions while also not being able to produce sudden change opportunities. That has changed of late, forcing 18 takeaways while only committing six turnovers in the past five games.
Minnesota sits at plus-4 in turnover margin entering Saturday’s game, generating 14 takeaways to only 10 lost. Which team will be efficient and protect the ball on Saturday?
Vazquez: Much like Jake, I don’t have a particular concern with this football team. I wouldn’t be overly surprised if Wisconsin won easily on Saturday. The offense hasn’t fully caught up to the defense -- that would be nearly impossible -- but for the first time this season, the Badgers won on the back of their offensive performance.
If I had to circle a matchup or position group to watch for, I’ll look at the secondary. With a win likely setting up another bout with the Buckeyes in Indianapolis, you want to see a complete performance from the group. The cornerback pairing of Faion Hicks and Caesar Williams has been stout throughout the season and held Purdue’s star David Bell in check. But the defense struggled against longer developing, in-breaking routes against the Huskers. For Wisconsin to finally take down No. 2 Ohio State, it’ll be in large part because of what its secondary was able to do against quarterback C.J. Stroud and wide receivers Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson.
Worgull: Nebraska tight end Austin Allen torched the Badgers last weekend with his seven catches for 143 yards, allowing the Huskers to put a scare into Wisconsin. The Gophers have a pair of pretty consistent tight ends in Brevyn Spann-Ford and Ko Kieft who could give Wisconsin’s pass defense similar fits.
Both Spann-Ford and Kieft have seen their roles grow in recent weeks. Of Spann-Ford's 26 targets this year, 14 have come in the last four weeks, including a season-high six targets versus Illinois and four at Iowa. Last weekend he had a career-high 67 receiving yards against the Hoosiers. Spann-Ford ranks third on the team with his 20 receptions and his 80.8 percent catch rate is the best of any Gopher with at least seven targets this year.
Kieft has seven catches for 101 yards and a touchdown this year, and his 14.4 yards per catch ranks third on the team among those with more than one catch. Four of Kieft's seven catches have come in the last five games, including two for a career-high 48 yards at Iowa, highlighted by a 37-yard TD catch. He has a catch rate of 77.8 percent, trailing only Spann-Ford.
While the duo may not have the athleticism of Allen, they still can do damage against a pass defense that was slightly exposed against the Huskers.
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