Published Sep 29, 2021
BadgerBlitz.com's 3Cs: No. 14 Michigan vs. Wisconsin
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Jon McNamara  •  BadgerBlitz
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BadgerBlitz.com's weekly feature, "The 3Cs," returns for the 2021 season. The staff takes a look at one thing we're curious, confident and concerned about heading into Wisconsin's conference showdown against No. 14 Michigan.

Senior writers Jon McNamara and Benjamin Worgull, along with staff writer Raul Vazquez, each give their thoughts on the aforementioned topics for this week's contest.

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CURIOUS

Worgull: I can’t quite grasp what exactly has happened to the Wisconsin program over the past two seasons. Since faltering to Ohio State in the 2019 Big Ten championship game, the Badgers are 5-7 and have lost seven consecutive games to ranked opponents. The last time UW beat a team who finished the season over .500 was the last ranked team it beat – at Minnesota in 2019.

Every year Wisconsin could be counted on to play fundamentally sound football that was predicated on establishing the run and having a defense that created headaches for the opposition. The latter has certainly been true over the last 12 games, but the offense is a disaster with sloppy play from the quarterbacks, inconsistent blocking in the trenches that has stunted the running game and an overall lack of imagination that makes them predictable.

After Saturday’s embarrassment in Chicago, the Badgers are preparing for a Michigan team ranked No.14 in the country that is a perfect 4-0 and playing physical football that was completely absent when UW dismantled them in Ann Arbor last season. Maybe UW can convince Eastern Michigan to come back instead?

Here’s another curious question to ponder: what does first-year athletic director Chris McIntosh think watching his predecessor’s close friend, Paul Chryst, appear unable to fix an offense that used to be his bread and butter?

Vazquez: I am not sure if curious is the right word to use here but I’ll be watching closely - as will much of the Wisconsin fan base - what adjustments Chryst makes on offense. More specifically, can Graham Mertz finally put together a solid game against a good team? There is no question the Badgers' offense has asked way too much from the defense. That unit is second in the country in total defense and has given up just 43 points across the first three weeks, while their offense has totaled 23 points in the matchups against Penn State and Notre Dame.

Mertz hasn’t had much help in terms of play calling, staying on schedule during first and second downs or from his offensive line. Since starting his career by throwing seven touchdowns to no interceptions against Illinois and Michigan, Mertz has thrown just six touchdowns to a whopping 17 interceptions over his last eight starts, leaving Wisconsin’s record to 0-5 against ranked opponents. Even if UW fails to come out on top, you need to see some semblance of improvement from the highly touted quarterback.

McNamara: There’s a lot of things I’m curious about when it comes to this football team. But what about the point spread, where Wisconsin is currently favored by one point? Maybe Las Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m taking the Wolverines and the under (43.5) on Saturday.


CONFIDENT

Worgull: I’m convinced that Chris Haering has blackmail on some higher ups at Wisconsin, which is why he continues in his role as special teams coach despite showing no tangible reason as to why he should continue to have that job.

There were a lot of things that went wrong in the fourth quarter Saturday but the jumping off point was Chris Tyree’s kickoff return that he took 96 yards for the touchdown, turning a 13-10 deficit into a 17-13 lead for the Irish that they didn’t give back. Tyree didn’t do anything out of the ordinary on the return other than find a gaping seam in UW’s kick return defense. The only UW player who barely touched him was kicker Jack Van Dyke.

Those breakdowns are on the players and on Haering, whose scheme has faltered for two years now. Without Zach Hintze’s power leg last season, UW went from sixth in the country to 60th in kick return defense, allowing 20.71 yards per return. Right now, using this small sample size, the Badgers are 121st.

Special teams have been passable at best at Wisconsin but have long been a weakness under Chryst with Haering as his special teams coach. Throw in the fact that Haering’s recruiting impact is minimal, the ultra-loyal Chryst should cut his losses and make a change … but I’m confident that he won’t.

Vazquez: If there’s anything you can be confident about with the current state of Wisconsin football, it’s Jim Leonhard’s defense. It will have a tough task against an offensive line that has given up just one sack and has paved the way for the fifth best rushing attack in the country. Cornerback Faion Hicks is coming off one of the best games of his career, if not the best, and a front seven that welcomed back Leo Chenal lived in the backfield against the Fighting Irish. The group accumulated six sacks, including two in the first three drop backs by Jack Coan, and tallied 12 tackles for loss against Notre Dame. They face a rushing attack led by Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins that has racked up 1,163 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground. UW's top rushing defense has given up just 69 rushing yards across three games and should be able to make Michigan one dimensional and force quarterback Cade McNamara to carry the load.

McNamara: Can you be confident in anything else besides the defense through three games? I’m confident that middle linebackers Jack Sanborn and Leo Chenal will play every defensive snap, barring injury, and this unit will force at least one turnover against the Wolverines on Saturday.

CONCERNED

Worgull: There are so many things going massively wrong with Wisconsin’s offense that it’s hard to know where to begin. The offensive line is full of once highly-ranked recruits who have yet to live up to that ranking, which is bottling up Wisconsin’s running game and putting more pressure on Mertz. Against a Notre Dame front without its top nose tackle, center Joe Tippmann was exposed badly.

The unit as a whole is committing far too many pre- and post-snap penalties to put them in tough down-and-distance situations, part of the reason UW ranks 126th nationally (out of 130 teams) in third-down conversion (13-for-48, 27.1 percent) and tied for 126th in red-zone offense (8-for-13, 61.5 percent).

However, the big concern is that Mertz will be the quarterback against the Wolverines. Mertz delivered another horrid performance against a ranked opponent, finishing with five turnovers (one fumble and four interceptions). All those turnovers led to points, totaling 31 of Notre Dame’s 41 points. Two of the picks were returned for touchdowns in the final 2:13 of the game when he was either staring down receivers or forcing throws.

Mertz threw for 240 passing yards against the Irish on 41 attempts, 100 of which came on three plays. In all three games this season, there are multiple instances where Mertz has been given time in the pocket and either made the wrong read, not seen an open receiver or been errant with his throws. Against ranked teams, those prevent victories.

Against the two ranked teams the Badgers have played this season, Mertz has thrown six interceptions, lost a pair of costly fumbles and delivered just one touchdown pass. I still think Mertz has a chance to be a solid quarterback but the odds of it happening this week – based on recent history – are slim.

Vazquez: Wisconsin’s recent play against ranked opponents leaves little reason for hope this weekend. With the potential to open the season 1-3, the outlook for the season and program can change very quickly. Unless the product on the field is much more encouraging during a loss, a third defeat minimizes any hope of winning the Big Ten West and leaves the Badgers in line for their third disappointing season in four years.

McNamara: I’m concerned with the offensive line play as a whole, but with Joe Rudolph rotating up to nine linemen during the course of a game, how long can/will that continue? I can’t remember a time over the last 20 years when the Badgers had so many moving parts on that unit, and it’s concerning that Rudolph hasn’t been able to narrow that group down a bit more. Right tackle Logan Bruss has been the lone piece of consistency through three games.