BadgerBlitz.com Buy or Sell: Week 6 Storylines vs. Rutgers

Madison — Fresh off a bye week, the Badgers look to improve to 4-1 overall and 2-0 in conference play as they host Rutgers for Homecoming weekend.

As kickoff draws nearer, BadgerBlitz.com football beat writers Seamus Rohrer and Donnie Slusher will decide if they're "buying" or "selling" on various storylines surrounding the Wisconsin football program.

SEAMUS: Buy

According to Luke Fickell, the decision to not play Maema Njongmeta in Wisconsin's game against Purdue was purely schematic. Fickell said that he thought Jake Chaney would fare better against Purdue's spread offense, and to be fair, Chaney was very solid.

It's still a very strange move to hold one of your best defensive players, a captain no less, out of essentially an entire game for schematic reasons. That won't be a viable excuse Saturday, as Rutgers leans on the running game to power its offense.

Njongmeta hasn't played up to his standards this season. The middle linebacker is missing a shocking 20 percent of his tackles, according to Pro Football Focus, which would easily be a career low in that department. He hasn't quite been the dynamic nucleus of the front seven like he was expected to. Regardless, I'd be shocked if he didn't see at least 30 snaps on Saturday as Wisconsin's defense's utmost priority will be to contain the Scarlet Knights' ground game.

DONNIE: Sell

I’m hesitant to believe that the near-total absence of a team captain is just the result of some scheme preference. There’s either a greater reason behind-the-scenes, which I won’t speculate on, or the coaches didn’t like what they were seeing from Njongmeta. He has somewhat fallen off from last year, when he was among the best players on the defense.

It’s hard to believe they’ll just insert him back into the lineup like nothing ever happened, three weeks since he last played a full game, against the best running back they’ve played so far in Kyle Monangai.

I also find it hard to believe that such a drastic change in playing time will only last for one game.

SEAMUS: Buy

This offense at times has struggled even with Chez Mellusi, and against a tough defense like Rutgers, I have no reason to believe they'll suddenly look like the Greatest Show on Turf.

I do think Tanner Mordecai and his bevy of eligibles will be able to do some damage to Rutgers' secondary — their strength is in the front seven. With Wisconsin's offense breaking in a new No. 2 tailback while also trying not to overwork Braelon Allen, therein lies my concern.

I expect Jackson Acker to get most of the backup carries come Saturday. He's got an intriguing set of physical traits, but has yet to prove he can be a consistently productive tailback. For his entire career, he averages 4.6 yards-per-carry. It'll be fascinating to see how Wisconsin handles this situation, but I'm not overly confident in the backup tailbacks to the point where I think the offense will operate like business as usual.

DONNIE: Buy

The offense will struggle on Saturday, but not just because of Mellusi’s absence. He’s missed multiple games every year he’s been in Madison, and the offense never experienced a major drop off. His loss should be even less detrimental this year given the improvement of the passing game.

I’m more worried about this Rutgers defense. Greg Schiano almost always has an elite defense, and this year's might be his best.

Aaron Lewis is the best defensive end that Wisconsin has played so far, and they’ll also have to worry about Wesley Bailey on the other side. They have an elite linebacker duo, led by Tyreem Powell and Deion Jennings. How Allen fairs against this front seven will likely define Wisconsin’s offensive success.

SEAMUS: Buy

I expect Wisconsin to lean on the passing game more for several reasons. As mentioned, the strength of Rutgers' defense is the front seven. Phil Longo has undoubtedly been scheming as to how he can take them out of the game, and part of the answer to that involves going after Rutgers' secondary.

What's more, I'm not especially confident in the backup tailbacks' ability to produce consistently, and I believe that more will be placed on Mordecai's shoulders going forward with the run game depleted. When you consider the staff's priority to preserve Allen as well, it's easy to see Mordecai airing it out.

Finally, Rutgers has thrived this season on possessing the ball and playing defense to win ballgames. If the Badgers can jump out to an early lead via some quick strikes through the air, they could put the Scarlet Knights in a very difficult position to come back with their style of play.

This is probably the most fascinating storyline this week, as we'll get to see how married Longo really is to the running game, or if he pounces on the opportunity to sling the football around.

DONNIE: Buy

I predict Wisconsin’s offensive performance will look similarly to the Washington State game. It came out against the Cougars and tried to establish the run, but simply couldn’t. They finished with just 91 rushing yards on 3.1 yards per carry. They didn’t find any success on offense until the third quarter, when Phil Longo let Mordecai carry the load on offense, which finally led to some production.

Come this Saturday, I expect the Badgers will enter the game trying to run the ball, like always. But it won’t be as easy as running against Georgia Southern, or even Purdue. This Rutgers defense is among the best in the Big Ten, allowing just 98.6 rushing yards per game.

Perhaps Longo learned his lesson from Washington State and won’t be afraid to lean on Mordecai early, if the running game looks flat. Regardless of what style they “lean” on, the offense can’t just expect Acker to step in and replace Mellusi’s production.

I highly doubt they’re looking to become a pass-first offense, but they may have to at times.

SEAMUS: Sell

Kyle Monangai is third in the conference in rushing yards, and has displayed an impressive combination of speed, vision and contact balance. But if you dive deeper, Monangai hasn't been immune to lulls.

The tailback has amassed 471 yards on the ground, but that doesn't tell the whole story. In the two Big Ten games Rutgers played, Monangai ran for 76 yards on 25 carries for a meager average of just about 3 yards-per-carry. The trenches are simply different in this conference.

Multiple players this week mentioned run defense as an area the team addressed not only during Rutgers prep, but during the self-reflection portion of the bye week. With how much Rutgers loves the ground game, I expect Mike Tressel to do everything in his power to make this game about the arm of Scarlet Knights' quarterback Gavin Wimsatt.

DONNIE: Sell

The question is not, “Will Monangai play well?”it’s “Can Wisconsin keep up?”

The Badgers have yet to face a running back quite like Monangai.

Of the backs Wisconsin has played to this point, none have even cracked 300 rushing yards through five weeks. Meanwhile Monangai is up to 471. Despite the lack of quality running backs on Wisconsin’s schedule up to this point, they still give up an average of 118.5 rushing yards per game.

They’ve also yet to play an offense that depends this much on their running back. His 88 rushing attempts are second-highest in the Big Ten.

Wisconsin, at the very least, won’t be caught off guard. They know that Monangai is the centerpiece of their offense. If they can limit him, they’ll probably win. But that’s a big “if”.

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