BadgerBlitz.com Buy or Sell: Week 10 Storylines vs. Indiana
MADISON — Wisconsin looks to bounce back after last week's closer-than-expected loss to Ohio State. They'll travel to Bloomington to face the Hoosiers, who are winless in the Big Ten.
As kickoff draws nearer, BadgerBlitz.com football beat writers Seamus Rohrer and Donnie Slusher will decide if they're "buying" or "selling" on various storylines surrounding the Wisconsin football program.
WISCONSIN TIGHTENS UP ITS RUN DEFENSE
SEAMUS: Buy
It's no secret that Indiana football has struggled to run the ball — the Hoosiers average 109.5 rushing yards each game. That's 110th nationally. They also don't have a running play that's gone for more than 25 yards this season. They've been neither explosive nor consistent in their rushing attack.
Still, the Badgers have struggled to stop the run in recent weeks. Across its past three games, Wisconsin has surrendered and average of 201 yards on the ground. That's a problem.
Upon closer inspection, however, there were some X-factors in those games that may have skewed those numbers. Against Iowa, nearly half of the Hawkeyes rushing yards came on one play, Leshon Williams' 82-yard score. In Champaign, Wisconsin struggled to contain quarterback Luke Altmyer, as he compiled over 100 yards on the ground. And against Ohio State, Treyveon Henderson did what Henderson does — he's one of the best tailbacks in the country.
Indiana has a collection of good, not great running backs. No one in the Hoosiers' backfield jumps off the page as a big play threat. At least on paper, Wisconsin should have no problem shutting down Indiana's ground game.
DONNIE: Buy
This has mostly to do with Indiana’s weakness at the running back position, even though Wisconsin’s run defense doesn’t inspire much confidence, either.
The Hoosiers may have the most dysfunctional running back room of any team Wisconsin has faced.
Jaylin Lucas’ 56 carries and 242 rushing yards lead the team, but he’s been slowly phased out of the lineup, only recording seven carries in the last three games. Christian Turner isn’t too far behind him in those stats, but didn’t play at all last week, and he wasn't on the injury report. Josh Henderson just returned from injury and was given the most carries against Penn State with 12, but only finished with 57 rushing yards.
This cast of characters has led the Hoosiers to 109.5 rushing yards per game, good for third-worst in the Big Ten. To put it into perspective, Braelon Allen currently has 754 rushing yards on the season. They’ve only rushed for 876 yards as a team.
Playing this group right after Henderson will feel like a night-and-day difference for the Badgers.
INDIANA BUILDS ON ITS PERFORMANCE LAST WEEK AGAINST PENN STATE
SEAMUS: Sell.
Indiana has shown some offensive improvement under new coordinator Rod Carey after he replaced Walt Bell in early October. Its offense flashed last week, breaking off several huge plays that forced the Nittany Lions to play them down to the wire.
Still, I think that was a fever dream for the Hoosiers. They're simply not explosive enough on offense to recreate that kind of production on a weekly basis. Their 349 yards against Penn State were the most since they produced 357 against Louisville back in September. Wisconsin knows it has to limit the big plays, and the defense should feel extra onus to lock Indiana down if Braelon Allen can't play.
It was a honorable effort last week in State College, but it appears to be too little, too late for the Hoosiers. I don't think that offensive performance is replicable in back to back weeks.
DONNIE: Buy
Sometimes even losses can build confidence, and this could be true for both teams on Saturday.
Penn State typically wins by an average of 27.4 points, but only beat Indiana 33-24. Ohio State’s average margin of victory is 22.5 points, but only beat Wisconsin 24-10.
Both teams’ boost of confidence could feasibly cancel out. But the difference between them is that the Hoosiers will enter with far more desperation.
Indiana has yet to win a Big Ten game this year, and November just began. It doesn’t matter the team — that’s embarrassing. They just showed that they can hang around with one of the best teams in the conference, who’s to say they can’t improve against a worse opponent?
If Wisconsin does win, which I think it will, it shouldn’t shock anyone if the Hoosiers take it down to the wire.
WISCONSIN WINS BY TWO SCORES
SEAMUS: Sell.
If the Badgers were at full strength, absolutely. If Allen was completely healthy, 100 percent. But with this depleted offense, it's hard to have much faith in this team's ability to separate.
Vegas thinks Wisconsin has a shot to win by two scores, as the line for the game is currently 9.5. A 10-point victory feels plausible, but I wouldn't put my money on it. Not with a Badgers' backfield consisting of Braedyn Locke and Jackson Acker and/or Cade Yacamelli.
I have little questions about Wisconsin's defense at the moment. I believe they'll hold up just fine against an overall lackluster Hoosiers' attack. The offense, though, hasn't shown enough consistency with Locke at the helm for me to have confidence in a two-score victory, even against a clearly inferior opponent. Not yet.
DONNIE: Buy
The obvious concern is that the Badgers may play without Allen, but they’re also playing against the Hoosiers.
Indiana has given up 169.1 rushing yards per game, which is dead last in the Big Ten. Akron, a MAC team, ran for 263 yards and three touchdowns and only lost to Indiana by two points. They also let Rutgers rush for 267 yards on them two weeks ago. Yes, the same Scarlet Knights team that finished with just 64 rushing yards against Wisconsin.
It would be frightening for the Badgers if Jackson Acker and Cade Yacamelli aren’t at least somewhat productive.
Indiana did keep it close against Penn State, but they also relied on two major touchdown passes — one 90-yarder, then a 69-yarder.
Those don’t just happen, especially for a team like Indiana.
Even with the offense’s inconsistencies, Locke’s inexperience and the injury concerns, Indiana shouldn't be too great of a challenge.
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