Wisconsin hopes to right the ship when taking on an old friend and a Big Ten West program down in Champaign this weekend.
BadgerBlitz.com presents key matchups and projected starters on both sides of the ball for when UW (1-3 overall, 0-2 Big Ten) faces Bret Bielema and Illinois (2-4, 1-2) on Saturday inside Memorial Stadium (2:30 p.m. CT, BTN).
WHEN ILLINOIS HAS THE BALL
Illinois comes into the game averaging under 20.7 points and 356 yards per game offensively. However, it has accumulated 187.8 rushing yards per outing on 4.6 yards per carry, and it has converted 42.7% of its third downs.
The Fighting Illini ground game is led by running backs Chase Brown (379 yards, 7.3 yards per carry, three touchdowns) and Josh McCray (329, 5.5, one). Brown ran for 257 yards last week in a performance fit for a Big Ten offensive player of the week against non-conference foe Charlotte. The line boasts veteran players Doug Kramer, Vederian Lowe and Alex Palczewski (a combined 134 starts between that trio).
"Just going off of personnel, they obviously have a veteran offense and guys that have played football, guys that we've played football against, so starts kind of up front," inside linebacker Jack Sanborn said of the Illini offense on Monday. "They got a lot of linemen back that we've seen, and they're an athletic group, and they can run. They do a good job of working well with each other and working off of each other. Then they kind of got a running back by committee right now and some pretty good backs.
"They're gonna pose their challenges, and then the quarterback is experienced. We've seen him twice, he's beaten us once so we know what he brings to the table, and we know them as an offense can bring to the table."
However, the strength of Wisconsin's defense lies in stopping the run. Jim Leonhard's unit ranks first in the nation in rush defense, allowing just over 45 yards per contest. Opponents are only averaging 1.6 yards per carry through four games. Advantage should lie with the Badgers here.
Wisconsin has faced offenses that like to stretch the field in three of its first four games, but Illinois is averaging just 168.2 yards per contest and 5.6 yards per throw. It has recorded 11 passing plays for 20 or more yards in six games, according to the program's game notes, but none more than 45 yards.
Quarterback Brandon Peters has only completed 49.3% of his passes for 398 yards and one touchdown to one interception, while backup Artur Sitkowski has hit on 56.9% of his throws for 611 yards and six touchdowns to one pick. Former quarterback turned wide receiver Isaiah Williams leads the team in receptions (28 for 275 yards, one touchdown).
Illinois has allowed 14 sacks on the season, while Leonhard's defense has gotten to opposing quarterbacks 10 times. That is led by outside linebacker Nick Herbig (3.5 sacks). Pro Football Focus credits UW with 64 total pressures in four games.
WHEN WISCONSIN HAS THE BALL
Illinois allows 24.7 points and over 417 yards per game heading into Saturday's divisional clash. Wisconsin's run game has struggled over the last two games with a combined 121 yards accumulated on 60 carries. For that matter, Illinois allows just 125.2 yards per outing through six games, and opponents have only accumulated 3.7 yards per carry this season. Can the offensive line and running backs, perhaps including true freshman Braelon Allen, break through this week?
That being said, Wisconsin may have opportunities through the air. Illinois has given up 292.2 passing yards per game and 11 touchdowns this season. However, UW will have to improve upon this area of the offense, having already thrown eight interceptions and reaching only 189.5 yards per game.
The program listed quarterback Graham Mertz (56.6% completion percentage, 681 yards, two touchdowns, six interceptions) and tight end Jake Ferguson (15 receptions, 108 yards) as questionable this week. But head coach Paul Chryst discussed Mertz's status for Saturday's game during his weekly Thursday availability with reporters.
"He's been able to practice, and that part's been good, so expecting to have everyone there," Chryst said. "Ferg's been able to practice. That part's all been good."
If both play, that helps Chryst's offense in terms of health, but the unit will need to become more consistent in its aerial arsenal.
A major key to watch on Saturday will be the turnovers. Wisconsin has coughed up the ball 12 times in four games (eight aforementioned interceptions, four fumbles lost). UW turned the ball over twice in the fourth quarter the last time it played in Champaign, and those played a vital role in the Badgers' stumbling to an upset loss on the Illini's homecoming weekend in 2019.
Illinois holds a plus-4 turnover margin (10 takeaways to six lost). Defensive back Kerby Joseph holds two interceptions, two fumble recoveries and a safety through six games, along with 27 tackles. In four games, inside linebacker Jake Hansen registered 30 tackles, 2.5 for loss, and two forced fumbles. We will see if the veteran defensive standout plays this weekend.
Keeping Wisconsin's quarterbacks upright will be a storyline to follow. UW has allowed 10 sacks through four games, but Illinois boasts 15 through six contests. PFF credits Bret Bielema's defense with 92 pressures in that span. The Badgers' offensive line will need to particular attention to outside linebacker Owen Carney Jr. (4.5 sacks, two quarterback hurries).